Hall of Fame: I Love the 80's Second Base Style
Juan Samuel
CAREER 1983-98
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
1720 6081 .259 .315 .420 161 550 440 1442 396 143 73% .490 819
6098 .265 .334 .381 109 439 616 916 204 88 70% .484 799
It's become fashionable as of late to compare Alfonso Soriano to three-time All-Star Juan Samuel. On the surface they are eerily similar: power/speed guys with questionable defense and itchy trigger fingers in the batter's box. It's a rare combination of strengths and weaknesses that defies the conventions of baseball's traditional, specialized roles--too free-swinging to leadoff, too fast for the middle of the lineup, at least according to "The Rules." Samuel's career started with a bang, but like the hubris of a Greek tragic hero, that pesky skill of plate discipline would plague him to mediocrity. His career line is little more than league average with his second base contemporaries. Most notable are his below average on-base percentage and above average slugging. Like Soriano, Samuel rarely, if ever, saw a pitch he didn't like.
PEAK SEASON 1984
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
160 701 .272 .307 .442 15 70 28 168 72 15 83% .550 100
674 .263 .322 .360 7 45 58 91 29 11 73% .462 81
Take your pick between 1984 and 1987. In 1987, Samuel scored 113 runs and drove in 100 with 28 home runs, topped 60 walks for the only time in his career and led the league in extra base hits with 80. I choose '84 as the league was a bit tougher on offensive numbers prior to the post-'87 power binge. He also stole twice as many bases in 1984 with an excellent success rate of 83%. In fact, he set the rookie record for stolen bases this year. Moreover, beginning with '84, Samuel was the first major leaguer to accomplish a quadruple double, of sorts, in his first four major league seasons: double digits in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases. Despite all this, he was still just the fifth best second baseman offensively in 1984.
3-YEAR PEAK 1984-86
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
155 652 .268 .304 .442 17 66 29 150 56 16 78% .510 89
643 .267 .332 .367 8 43 61 87 25 11 70% .480 81
In his peak seasons, Samuel was slugging twice as many home runs and stealing twice as many bases as the average second baseman while walking half as often. He did this while playing half his games in Veteran Stadium, which favored hitters through the mid to late eighties.
5-YEAR PEAK 1984-88
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
157 648 .264 .309 .442 18 66 37 153 47 15 76% .505 90
641 .265 .331 .369 9 44 62 89 23 10 70% .471 80
After hovering around .300 for three consecutive years, Samuel's OBP jumped to .336 with a career high 60 walks (in 660 AB). It would be the only time his OBP would .330 while he played full-time. It's none too pretty to see that at his best, Samuel could get on base just 3 out of 10 tries. Yet despite that, thanks to his power and speed, he still managed to create 13% more runs than the average second baseman.
Samuel was done as a full-time player in 1991 at the age of 30. He still hung around the league as a spare outfielder and DH for another eight years, though. For Alfonso Soriano's sake, one can only hope his promising career can avoid the mediocrity of Samuel's. (For his exploits of October 21, 2001, however, Soriano deserves much worse, but I digress.)If there's a moral to the story of Juan Samuel's career, kids, it's plate discipline.
In addition, Samuel had a career EQA of .268, was worth 53.9 wins above a replacement level second baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 85 runs below replacement. I honestly can't come up with one good defense of why Juan Samuel can be a Hall of Famer.
Ryne Sandberg
And to think the Phillies traded Sandberg to keep Samuel. That has to be a dark day in Phillie history. Sandberg and Samuel could make an interesting compare/contrast study. They were born nine months apart, both developed by Philadelphia, made their debuts two years apart. One became the poster child for the talented free swinger who couldn't steal first base. The other became the elite second baseman of a generation.
CAREER 1981-94, 1996-97
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
2164 8385 .285 .344 .452 282 761 761 1260 344 107 76% .566 1335
8043 .263 .330 .373 130 556 773 1168 250 111 69% .467 1014
Ryne Sandberg defined second base for the eighties and well into the next decade. He was selected to the All-Star team 10 consecutive seasons. He won nine straight gold gloves. He placed top ten in the MVP balloting three times and won it once. Just those merits alone leave me scratching my head wondering why we even need this discussion this year. He should have been enshrined last year. In his 16-year career, he hit .285--well above average. His career .344 on-base percentage, while nothing outstanding, still stands above his peers. He slugged nearly twice as many home runs than his contemporary second basemen. His walks and strikeouts are right at average. He was a far superior baserunner with 100 more stolen bases over his career and fewer caught stealing than the average. In addition, he created 32% more runs than the league average second baseman over his career.
PEAK SEASON 1984
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
156 636 .314 .367 .520 19 74 52 101 32 7 82% .680 126
582 .263 .322 .360 6 39 50 78 25 9 74% .462 70
Like Samuel and Orwell, Sandberg's best season was 1984, and it was Sandberg who was the best at his position that season, as he earned the most valuable player honors. He led the league in triples. His .887 OPS was third in the league. He placed second in hits, second in extra base hits and second in total bases. He created 80% more runs than the average second baseman. He also hit .368/.455/.474 in 19 AB in the National League Championship Series, which the Cubs lost to the Padres in five games.
3-YEAR PEAK 1990-92
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
157 604 .300 .368 .519 31 66 68 82 21 7 75% .671 117
568 .262 .331 .372 9 39 58 84 17 8 69% .484 72
While Sandberg's best single season was 1984, his three-year peak occurs some years later, at ages 30-32. He wasn't the same baserunner later in his career, but despite the power spike of the era, Sandberg was slugging three times as many home runs as the average second baseman. Of course, playing in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field didn't hurt one bit.
5-YEAR PEAK 1989-93
G AB AVG OBA SLG HR XBH BB SO SB CS % OWP RC
149 575 .300 .364 .497 26 58 60 79 18 6 76% .647 106
540 .262 .330 .371 9 37 53 78 15 7 69% .477 68
At his peak, Sandberg's game was vastly superior to his contemporaries, creating 56% more runs for his team. The Cubs reached the NLCS again in 1989 where Sandberg hit .400/.455/.800 in 20 AB, and still they lost in five games, this time to the Giants.
For his career, Sandberg put together seven seasons that can be called excellent and just two (his first and last) that could arguably be called poor. In addition, Sandberg had a career EQA of .282, was worth 112.7 wins above a replacement level second baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 95 runs above replacement. Ryno is a definite Hall of Famer.
And Jim Caple has my back on choosing a full ballot this year. Furthermore, Rich Lederer makes the indisputable case for Bert Blyleven.
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