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Mariners Musings

Musings about, um... well, the Seattle Mariners as well as a love affair with this game baseball. By Peter J. White

Wednesday, December 24, 2003

I'll be home for Christmas


Tomorrow I brave the orange terror alert and fly home to see my family in Tulsa for a week. I really want a T-shirt that says in big bold letters, "I AM VIGILANT." But maybe that's my ornery inner-teenager coming out.

I'll write as opportunity arises. It's a cathartic exercise, really, so there's no telling how much the holidays will require of it :) I'll be back to full speed for the New Year.

Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace to men on whom his favor rests. Because that's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.

Merry Christmas, everyone.
|| Peter @ 12/24/2003

Hall of Fame: Mex and Donnie Baseball


Or I Love the 80's: Baseball Style. I neglected to mention yesterday that the league averages used below are based on the number outs used.

Keith Hernandez 



CAREER 1974-90

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2088 7370 .296 .384 .436 162  648 1070 1012  98  63 75% .644 1265

     7089 .271 .344 .419 209  595  793 1033  89  57 61% .543 1022

Yeah, check out that career .384 career on-base percentage. He put up a .400+ OBP five times in his career, led the league in that category once and finished in the top 3 seven times in his 17-year career. He led the league in walks once and finished in the top 3 four times. Ever the patient hitter, Hernandez walked more often than he struck out. While he was not the home run hitter that either Eddie Murray or Steve Garvey was in that era, he hit more extra base hits than his contemporaries. In addition, he stole more bases and was more successful at it than his peer first basemen. He created 24% more runs than the league average, and when you throw in ten consecutive gold gloves, you've got yourself a dandy Hall of Fame argument here.

Now gold gloves, just like MVP Awards, Cy Yound Awards and All-Star selections, are not the end-all of a players' credentials. It's an entirely subjective and flawed selection process. Reputation, it seems, often counts as much as actual performance. But they don't always get them wrong, and awards should be considered... just with a grain of salt. 

PEAK SEASON 1979 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 161  610 .344 .417 .513  11   70   80   78  11   6 65% .729  134

      539 .278 .343 .428  16   46   56   75   7   4 64% .535   80

Hernandez shared the MVP in 1979 with Willie Stargell, the only time that's ever happened. He was far more valuable than the ever popular Stargell who hit a lot more home runs in a hitters park and played for the World Champion Pirates. Dave Winfield deserved it more than both of them. But back to Mex. He lead the league in batting average, on-base percentage and doubles, creating two-thirds more runs than the average first baseman--far and away the best at his position in baseball. 
3-YEAR PEAK 1979-81 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 141  527 .326 .410 .494  12   57   76   65  12   6 66% .714  109

      489 .276 .343 .415  12   40   51   62   7   4 61% .539   69

Busch Stadium was a neutral park in 1979 and slightly favored hitters through the early eighties, and Hernandez consistently hit .300 with on-base percentages over .400. 
5-YEAR PEAK 1979-83 (3rd Best 1B)

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 147  540 .315 .404 .464  11   52   83   67  13   7 65% .690  105

      510 .275 .344 .416  14   42   55   66   6   4 61% .546   73

While he never put up the sexy home run numbers, at his peak, Hernandez dominated his fellow first baseman, drawing a walk more often than he struck out, getting on base more often, creating more runs. Offensively, he, Eddie Murray and Cecil Cooper are all very similar in overall worth. Add in defense and Hernandez was the best first baseman in baseball in his prime. While he never again matched his production offensively of 1979 and 1980, he was an extremely solid bat in the heart of the lineup of the mid-eighties Mets that won a championship in 1986.

In addition, Hernandez had a career EQA of .300, was worth 101.6 wins above a replacement level first baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 271 runs above replacement. Those are pretty worthy Hall credentials if you ask me.

Don Mattingly 
CAREER 1982-95

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

1785 7003 .307 .358 .471 222  684  588  444  14   9 61% .624 1160

     6693 .273 .352 .443 249  616  809 1019  50  35 59% .573 1052

Is Mattingly the best Yankee to never win a ring? Simply put, Mattingly put the bat on the ball. Like Hernandez, Mattingly walked more often than he struck out. But he did neither very often. He is a career .300 hitter, but his on-base percentage is just league average. For his career, he wasn't a home run hitter, thanks to mid-career back injury, but he did hit 35+ doubles eight times in his 14-year career, leading the league three times in a row. The stolen base was never a part of Mattingly's offensive repertoire. He created 10% more runs than the average first baseman of his day. 
PEAK SEASON 1986 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 162  677 .352 .394 .573  31   86   53   35   0   0  0% .742  149

      610 .273 .352 .436  22   53   74   91   4   2 67% .567   94

Take your pick--1984, 1985, 1986. They were all phenomenal seasons by any standard. He won the batting crown in '84 and the MVP in '85, but I pick '86 when he led the league in slugging percentage and extra base hits. Wade Boggs edged him for the batting crown by .005 points. He also led the league in hits, doubles and total bases, creating 37% more runs than his fellow AL first basemen. He finished second to Roger Clemens in the MVP vote and was easily the best first baseman in either league. 
3-YEAR PEAK 1984-86 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 158  644 .340 .382 .560  30   80   50   36   1   1 50% .742  135

      597 .277 .347 .439  20   53   64   83   5   3 58% .565   90

As stated above, it's a mighty fine three-year run. To hit .340/.382/.560 with 30 homers and 80 extra base hits in any single season is a great accomplishment. To average that over three consecutive seasons is a Hall of Famer in the making. 
5-YEAR PEAK 1984-88 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 152  620 .332 .376 .541  27   73   48   35   1   1 42% .718  123

      578 .276 .348 .446  21   53   64   82   5   3 59% .571   90

At his peak, Don Mattingly was hands down the best first baseman in all of baseball. The tragedy is that's all there is to his career. Had he continued to produce at the level he had from '84-'88 into the early nineties, even if he had declined just slightly, there would really be no discussion as to Mattingly's Hall merit. From 1990-95, he was a below average first baseman, much below. The numbers show his defense remained consistent, but his back injury turned him from one of the league's most feared hitters into a mere mortal. He had a Hall of Fame peak, but his lack of longetivity keeps him from being an All-Time great.

Additionally, Mattingly had a career EQA of .298, was worth 91.6 wins above a replacement level first baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 244 runs above replacement.

Of the four first baseman on the ballot, I'd rank Keith Hernandez at the top, and at this point, I'm leaning toward punching his name. Steve Garvey and Mattingly are about even, but I'd give a slight edge to Mattingly for the quality of his peak. Cecil Fielder is a distant fourth.

For some more Hall of Fame perspective, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated offers his ballot. And Ranting Mike, a devout Jamesian if there ever was one, has been all over this topic.
|| Peter @ 12/24/2003

Tuesday, December 23, 2003

Some Hall of Fame thoughts: Big Daddy and the Senator


As I peruse this year's Hall of Fame ballot, I cannot help but echo the sentiments offered by Matt Bruce several months ago. I remember these guys. More specifically, I remember these guys exactly as they appear on their 1987 Topps baseball cards. Minnesota Twin Bert Blyleven with the close up headshot. Cleveland Indian Joe Carter playing first base in a defensive crouch with eyeblack so thick it looks like mud. Cincinnati Red Dave Concepcion kneeling at second, glove in the air after a tag. Montreal Expo Andre Dawson with bat straight in the air on his follow through. San Diego Padre Steve Garvey without a cap, stretching on the infield grass.

Why I can remember such vivid details and forget where I placed the peanut butter in the pantry yesterday is just beyond me.

There was a day when I all I knew about these baseball players was from the hieroglyphics on the back of their baseball cards ("Wow! Bobby Bonilla has two middle names!" "Wow! B.J. Surhoff is good because his card says 'Future Star'!"), Beckett Baseball Card Monthly and the Sporting News. Somewhere around five years ago I discovered Rob Neyer, then Bill James, then Prospectus, Moneyball, etc., and as St. Paul puts it, "When I was a child, I walked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put childish ways behind me." Going back now to make some sort of informed decision with my ballot has been a treat. I had no idea just how horrible Joe Carter was. Or what a phenomenal centerfielder Andre Dawson was. And I thought I remembered Terry Pendleton as being really good.

The statistics below include games, at bats, batting average, on-base and slugging percentages, home runs, extra base hits, walks, strikeouts, stolen bases, caught stealing and success rate, offensive winning percentage (a Bill James junk stat that hypothesizes what the winning percentage of a lineup of 9 of that certain player would be against league average pitching) and Runs Created (another James stat, though a pretty simple, straight-forward formula). The first row of numbers is the players actual stats, or average per season in the case of the 3 and 5-year peaks. The second row is the league average for position of the same time period. I by no means purport to be an expert. There is no objective standard as to what makes a Hall of Famer, and I'm still in the process of developing my own ideas on the subject. That's what this is all about.

So here I go, thinking out loud. My hall of fame ballot, beginning with the first basemen, in chronological order, somewhat, maybe not really:

Cecil Fielder 
CAREER 1985-88, 1990-98

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

1470 5157 .255 .345 .482 319  526 693 1316   2   6 25% .550  833 

     5275 .274 .358 .455 215  508 680  938  40  26 61% .570  868

What's there to say beyond the oft-quoted Bill James comment? "He was a big fat guy who hit a lot of home runs for awhile." A one-dimensional player if there ever was one, Fielder was a baserunner only in the sense that when he hit the ball over the fence he was obligated to run the bases. He lead the league in home runs twice, runs batted in three times, and sluggling percentage, total bases and extra base hits once. For his career, he produced 4% fewer runs than the league average first baseman. 
PEAK SEASON 1990 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 159  573 .277 .377 .592  51   77  90  182   0   1  0% .733  126

      557 .266 .351 .431  20   49  73   93   3   2 60% .586   86

Cecil Fielder was the first AL player to top 50 home runs since Mantle and Maris in 1961. Yet, despite leading the league in home runs, slugging percentage, total bases and extra base hits, one can make a serious argument that both Fred McGriff and Eddie Murray were superior first basemen in 1990. Still, whacking two and half times as many home runs and producing 47% more runs than your contemporaries is fairly impressive. 
3-YEAR PEAK 1990-1992 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 159  597 .261 .350 .520  43   68  80  161   0   1  0% .640  107

      591 .263 .344 .421  20   51  73   95   4   3 58% .556   86

Same story: Lots of home runs, lots of strikeouts, not much else. For those wondering, Tiger Stadium favored neither hitters nor pitchers at this time. 
5-YEAR PEAK 1990-1994 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 148  558 .262 .352 .506  38   60  76  144   0   2  0% .607   97

      559 .269 .354 .440  21   52  73   94   4   3 58% .572   88

Even at his peak, Fielder was never even the best player at his position, much less the best player in baseball. All in all, Fielder put up one fairly impressive season, followed by one good one, several middling average ones and five you could call really bad. If you need a representative of first base in the early nineties in the Hall of Fame, you have the glut of McGriff, Bagwell, Thomas, Clark and Palmeiro well before you get to Cecil Fielder. No Big Daddy in the Hall.

Steve Garvey 
CAREER 1969-87

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2332 8835 .294 .329 .446 272  755 479 1003  83  62 57% .559 1225

     8584 .269 .342 .414 249  704 956 1245  96  64 60% .536 1216

Despite all the accolades of his career, the all-star games, appearing in the leader boards throughout his career, playing in five world series, the numbers show Steve Garvey as a league average first baseman. He hit for a higher average and for more power than his contemporaries, but drew half as many walks over the course of his career, making his OBP as far below league average as his batting average is above. He put up four very good seasons, two very bad ones and the rest around the league average for his position, though more slightly above than below. 
PEAK SEASON 1978 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 162  639 .316 .353 .499  21   66  40   70  10   5 60% .657  108

      598 .264 .336 .409  17   50  65   90   9   5 64% .526   82

It really is a toss up between '78 and '74. Garvey produced more runs per 27 outs in '78 (6.23) than in '74 (5.95). The baseball writers gave him the most valuable award in '74, and Garvey finished second in the voting to Dave Parker in '78. Despite producing 32% more runs than the league average in 1978, he wasn't the best first baseman that year. Rod Carew was definitely more effective offensively, and a strong case could be made for Eddie Murray as well. 
3-YEAR PEAK 1974-76 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 159  644 .316 .352 .465  17   57  38   67  12   5 71% .651  102

      606 .267 .344 .415  18   30  70   90   6   4 61% .541   86

5-YEAR PEAK 1974-78 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 160  643 .312 .349 .479  21   60  38   72  11   5 68% .637  103

      610 .269 .343 .421  19   52  68   90   7   4 63% .539   88

At his peak, Garvey was the best offensive first baseman of his era despite playing in Dodger Stadium that favored pitchers through the mid-seventies before playing more neutral towards the end of the decade. He could hit for a consistently high average but not quite high enough to offset his refusal to take a base on balls. So, despite collecting 200 hits six times, four gold gloves, ten all-star selections, an MVP and a .911 OPS in eleven post season series, Steve Garvey doesn't make my Hall of Fame.
|| Peter @ 12/23/2003

Monday, December 22, 2003

Beggars can't be choosers


"Fine speech is not becoming to a fool..." (Proverbs 17:7, RSV)

I don't like Jeff Cirillo. Never have. Nothing personal. He just seems to have been born without an ounce of tact nor the ability of "fine speech," as the Jewish proverb says. Here is the latest in his legacy of worst words at the worst time:

"My intention is to go to camp and play the best I can for Seattle, but I can't see myself walking through the Mariners' door in spring training, and I told them that," he said. "You're trying to win a championship and, especially with new guys on the team, you don't need the distraction" (Finnigan, Times).
I'm just imagining myself walking into my boss's office this morning and giving him the line: "You know, Boss. I'm going to give you everything I've got today, but quite frankly, I don't see myself being successful in this office. I notice you've brought in some new people, and well, I can't see how I would have a positive effect on them." Hmm... I've got a feeling that would not go over too well. I imagine I would be shown the door.

Now it is my understanding that the odds of becoming a major league baseball player are about as great as Frodo dumping that bossy little ring of his. A fool's hope, really. My own dream was squashed when I actually had to try out for the 14 & under league. I figure the equation has to go something like this: 93% being seen by the right person at the right time, 6% attitude, 4% talent and 2% butterscotch ripple. How Jeff Cirillo ever made it to the big leagues with that inner voice of confidence of his is a great mystery. Still, a fragile porcelain ego does not excuse one from stupid quotes in the media. The sooner Jeff Cirillo is a Tampa Bay Devil Ray--reunited with his archnemesis Uncle Lou--the better. Though I'd be hard-pressed to see how poor old Lou would deserve that.

I'll look to the Pacific northwestern poet Gary Snyder as my inspiration for heckling Jeffrey Cirillo the next time I see him in the batter's box: "You couldn't hit a bear in the ass with a handful of rice!"

Somehow I just can't resist commenting on this classic Bill Bavasi quote from Larry Stone's Sunday column. This is regarding the decision to keep Freddy and the possibility of Rafael Soriano or one of the other rookies to have an opportunity in the rotation:
"When the kids are ready for the opportunity, it might be better to let them dip their toe in the water and knock on the door before we throw them in the fire."
Count the cliches. No wait... I lost count.

On this weekend's big nontender news, Bavasi is quoted in the same article: "The list, by and large, is very, very often overrated," Bavasi said. "We might have payroll flexibility but little quality to spend it on." Are we so sure? So the holes that need filling are a left-handed reliever, an infielder and a left-handed bat off the bench. One name in particular jumps out at me. Maybe two. I'll leave it to another blogger to dissect the whole list.

Scott Sauerback is probably the highest profile lefty reliever in the bin. He held lefties to .192/.323/.308 last season in Pittsburgh and Boston. His 6.48 ERA while with the Red Sox last year is gaudy, but it was just 16.2 innings, and Fenway is a hitter's park while PNC in Pittsburgh is a neutral park. Safeco Field just might be his style.

Travis Chapman is the name that makes me look twice. Perhaps with David Bell under contract, the flexibility of Placido Polanco and Chase Utley ready for the big leagues, the Phillies consider third baseman Chapman expendible. He's 25 and hit .272/.348/.423 for Triple-A Scranton last year. His .282 EQA in the International League translates to .240 in the big leagues (compare to Jeff Cirillo .203, Willie Bloomquist .238 and Scott Spiezio .271). I'm not saying he's the answer, but he just might be worth a look. You've got to admire a player of whom getting hit by a pitch is among his arsenal of on-base prowess. He's hit double digits in that stat three times in his short minor league career, 19 times in 2002.

According to Baseball America, he was "one of the hottest names generating that buzz for this year's Rule 5 crop." Yet somehow he wasn't picked up by anyone in that draft. Last winter Jason Barker wrote that Chapman was the top prospect to watch in the Detroit organization. Of course that is Detroit. It just makes one ponder what's the deal with Travis Chapman.

And rounding out the day, there is indeed a current Angels blog. He has some particularly malicious words for Mariners fans regarding Bill Bavasi. Something to the effect of "Ha ha! Suckers!" Do LiveJournal blogs even use permalinks? You'll to scroll down to the entry December 1 at the very bottom of the page at the moment. I'd take a moment and disparage that silly primate of mascot they have in Anaheim, but that's too easy and Bill Bavasi is still the general manager of the Mariners.
|| Peter @ 12/22/2003