tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50242722024-03-13T00:58:14.617-04:00Mariners MusingsMusings about, um... well, the Seattle Mariners as well as a love affair with this game baseball. By Peter J. WhitePeterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comBlogger315125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1076876435112322512004-02-15T15:20:00.000-05:002004-02-15T15:26:44.356-05:00<h2>All aboard the A-B train!</h2>
<br />So, while the Expos aren't moving anywhere anytime soon, Mariners Musings is relocating to a new URL address:
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<br /><a href="http://www.all-baseball.com/marinermusings/"><em><strong>http://www.all-baseball.com/marinermusings/</strong></em></a>
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<br />In the words of culinary wonderbody Emeril, we're taking it up a notch, and I'm downright giddy and damn proud to announce that Mariners Musings is joining the ranks of All-Baseball.com. You may already be familiar with The Cub Reporter and The Transaction Guy by Christian Ruzich, Bronx Banter by Alex Belth, Mike's Baseball Rants by Mike Carminiti and The Will Carroll (and TwinFanDan) Weblog. It's also where you'll now find Dodger Thoughts by Jon Weisman, Wait Til Next Year by Bryan Smith and Baysball.
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<br />Two heads are better than one, but with about eight or nine, we just may be able to take over the world. There may be some kinks to be ironed out over the next week or so, but we're all very excited and have some very big plans to deliver the very best, creative and insightful baseball writing you can find in one place on the web.
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<br />Many, many thanks go out to Christian Ruzich and Mark McClusky for all of their long hours dreaming, organizing and handling all the technical details.
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<br />A pair of new features worth pointing out: You can now search Mariner Musings. Go ahead, try it. "Ron Villone." You can find some goofy things I had to say last summer. Also, each post can now be inidividually referenced and linked by clicking on the time stamp at the end of the post.
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<br />Beginning Monday all new content will be found exclusively at the new site. In the meantime, feel free to update your bookmarks and links at your convenience.
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<br />And on the topic of Alex getting fitted for his pinstripes, all I can do is channel the spirit of <a href="http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0115734/">Dignan</a> and echo, "This is unacceptable! This I do <em>not</em> forgive!"Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1076690851883970832004-02-13T11:47:00.000-05:002004-02-13T11:50:01.606-05:00<h2>Underneath trivial particulars</h2>
<br />I once knew a guy who kept a box of Trivial Pursuit cards in his bathroom. He told us he'd sit there on the john memorizing all the cards. Then, when it came time for the neighborhood Trivial Pursuit game (an odd, little neighborhood if you ask me), he'd collect all his pieces of the pie and clean house as he already knew all of the answers.
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<br />So here on this mid-February day, I offer this public service to give the answers to all of those most crucial of questions concerning the Mariners, like who uncorked the most wild pitches in a season (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/y/youngma01.shtml">Matt Young</a>, 16, 1990). Now you too can enter into the nearest barroom "discussion" with the full confidence that you are right, that you know more about the Mariners, and that they are wrong and are, at worst, closet Yankee fan spies.
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<br />Here we go. We'll start with some easy ones.
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<br />Who hit the most home runs in a season?
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<br />If you said <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/griffke02.shtml">Ken Griffey, Jr</a>. in 1997, give yourself a gold star. If you said Ken Griffey, Jr. in 1998, you get a gold star, too. He hit 56 in both seasons.
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<br />What pitcher stuck out the most batters?
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<br />If you considered anyone other than <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml">Randy Johnson</a>, then your Mariner fan club membership has just been revoked. Among the top 10 seasons, six of them belong to the Big Unit. His best was 1993 when he sent 308 baffled hitters straight back to the dugout.
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<br />Who has had the highest batting average from someone who could qualify for the batting title?
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<br />If you think it's <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martied01.shtml">Edgar Martinez's </a>.356 in 1995, nice try and thank you for playing. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml">Alex Rodriguez </a>won himself a batting title in 1996 with .358.
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<br />What pitcher has posted the best earned run average who could qualify for the ERA title? I'll even offer a hint: It rhymes with Jandy Rohnson.
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<br />Bingo. Randy Johnson is the only qualifying Mariner starter to post an ERA below 3.00, and he did it twice. His best was 1997 with 2.28. That top ten is populated by Johnson four times, four Safeco Field-blessed seasons, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hansoer01.shtml">Erik Hanson </a>in '90 and Matt Young in '83.
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<br />Now for some questions for your more serious stat-head conversation:
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<br />What hitter posted the highest on-base percentage (has to qualify for the batting title)? Would it help to offer that this individual has seven of the Mariners ten best seasons in this category?
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<br />This would be Edgar with .479 in 1995. Eight times Edgar has gotten on base in at least 42% of his plate appearances. Only Alex Rodriguez and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/davisal01.shtml">Alvin Davis </a>have done that even once while in Seattle.
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<br />What pitcher stifled offenses with the fewest baserunners per inning (WHIP) while qualifying for the ERA title?
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<br />Randy Johnson in 1995 with 1.07.
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<br />And how about slugging percentage?
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<br />That would be Junior with .674. All hail the power of the Kingdome. Just two Mariners have posted SLGs above .500 in the three and a half seasons at Safeco: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/boonebr01.shtml">Bret Boone </a>in '01 and '03 and Edgar in '01. That's partly the difference in roster philosophy between homer-happy Woody Woodward and anti-slugger-superstar Pat Gillick and partly park effects.
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<br />What pitcher put together the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio?
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<br />Qualifying only starters (min. 162 innings), that's again Johnson in 1995 with 4.52 strikeouts for every base on balls. Qualifying the specialty, flame-throwing relievers (min. 40 innings), that's <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rhodear01.shtml">Arthur Rhodes </a>in 2001 with 6.92. By the way, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/soriara01.shtml">Rafael Soriano's </a>2003 ranks 3rd on the list with 5.67 and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mateoju01.shtml">Julio Mateo's </a>2003 5th with 5.46. Talk about control freaks.
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<br />Now, here's the questions that separate the men from the boys (or the women from the girls, depending on your gender). These are the really critical ones that will help you discern friend from foe when you find yourself deep behind enemy lines. These are the ones that really mean something.
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<br />What Mariner hitter has been hit with the most pitches?
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<br />For the majority of his Seattle career, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/valleda01.shtml">Dave Valle </a>wore the number 10 on his back. Turns out in 1993 that "0" was actually a target as Valle led the major leagues 17 free passes from getting plunked. The next closest in Seattle history was Phil Bradley in 1985 with 12.
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<br />What Mariner pitcher drilled the most batters?
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<br />This is Randy Johnson during his Wild-Thing-era. And ten years ago, he wasn't pitching odor-eating dodgeballs. In 1993, Johnson near mortally wounded 18 hitters. This was also the same season as the classic John Kruk at bat in the All-Star game.
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<br />What Mariner has been caught stealing the most times in a season?
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<br />The answer is everyone's favorite ex-Mariner Baseball Tonight correspondent <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/reynoha01.shtml">Harold Reynolds</a>. After leading the league with 60 stolen bases in 1987 (with an excellent 75% success rate), Reynolds was caught a league leading 29 times the next year while only stealing 35 bases, which makes for an unproductive 55% rate. It's the sixth highest caught stealing total in all of baseball since integration.
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<br />What pitcher committed the most balks?
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<br />Curiously, eight of the top ten occurred in 1988. Anyone know if there was a rule change, sudden enforcement, something in the Puget Sound water or maybe Dick Williams and Jim Snyder plain didn't care? In any event, the leader is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/scurrro01.shtml">Rod Scurry </a>with 11. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/troutst01.shtml">Steve Trout </a>and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/reedje01.shtml">Jerry Reed </a>both had 7. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/waltege01.shtml">Gene Walter </a>and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jacksmi02.shtml">Mike Jackson </a>both had 6. Four of those five were relievers. And this was all in 1988. The Year of the Balk.
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<br />What Mariner grounded into the most double plays?
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<br />Not only did <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/preslji01.shtml">Jim Presley </a>create in out in 78% of his at bats, he doubled the fun for the defense grounding into a double play 29 times in his utterly miserable and in every way forgettable 1985 season.
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<br />What pitcher served up the most home runs?
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<br />Loook no further than <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bankhsc01.shtml">Scott Bankhead</a>, who coughed up 35 home runs in 1987. Interestingly, if you choose to look closer, number two on the list is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/frankry01.shtml">Ryan Franklin </a>with 34 in 2003. In fact, two other pitchers from last year--<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/garcifr03.shtml">Freddy Garcia </a>and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mechegi01.shtml">Gil Meche</a>--place in the top ten, with 31 and 30, respectively. Go figure.
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<br />Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in an essay entitled "<a href="http://www.rwe.org/works/Essays-2nd_Series_2_Experience.htm">Experience</a>" that "underneath the inharmonious and trivial particulars, is a musical perfection, the Ideal journeying always with us, the heaven without rent or seam."
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<br />Who did what the best in what year are all inharmonious and trivial particulars, especially as time marches on. And yet, it is such detailed minutia that makes the musical perfection of baseball. I'll bet good money that not only do they play baseball in heaven, but Saint Peter keeps score and counts everything. Even the little things that don't matter.
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<br />And if you yourself want to answer these questions as well as any other one who could imagine in this life or the next, such was who is the greatest hitter ever born in the state of Washington (John Olerud, and you can make a good case for Snohomish-native Earl Averill) or the greatest left-handed Canadien pitcher (John Hiller), then hurry yourself over to Lee Sinnins <a href="http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/">Sabermetric Encyclopedia</a>. There is no better distraction for the February blues. At the very least, sign up for his free daily <a href="http://www.baseballimmortals.net/subscribe.shtml">Around the Majors reports</a>. It's indispensible stuff.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1076601661662799542004-02-12T11:01:00.000-05:002004-02-12T15:11:32.920-05:00<h2>Retrosheet is a big liar-head</h2>
<br />I fell in love with <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/">Retrosheet </a>a month or so ago. I'd known it was out there, but I'd never taken time to just get lost in it. I keep meaning to write up a piece on the worst pitchers of Mariners of history, but then I seriously get lost in Retrosheet and time's up. As <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1594130051/marinersmusin-20/002-0304237-6918469?creative=125581&camp=2321&link_code=as1"><em>The Hobbit </em></a>to <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0618260587/marinersmusin-20/002-0304237-6918469?creative=125581&camp=2321&link_code=as1"><em>The Lord of the Rings </em></a>to the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0345325818/marinersmusin-20/002-0304237-6918469?creative=125581&camp=2321&link_code=as1"><em>Silmarillion</em> </a>so is <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/index">ESPN </a>to <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/">Baseball Reference </a>to Retrosheet. It's the Old Testament of baseball: epic history, heroic battles, the source of why the world is, all in every last gory detail.
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<br />Then I discovered the site has a serious credibility gap. It's a big liar-head.
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<br />I think Keith Woolner would agree with me. Maybe not publicly. But that's the gist I get from his latest <a href="http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2548">Aim For The Head </a>column. Keith reminisces with his romantic New England fatalism on his first game in Fenway Park on his birthday back in 1979. As Keith recalls vividly, Joe Rudi hit a 3-run homer to win the game for the Angels.
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<br />That is, until Woolner recently looked up the game on Retrosheet and the Red Sox actually won that game. (That just sounds like a Red Sox fan, doesn't it, remembering your first game as a loss when it was really a win?)
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<br />Keith blames the wispy nostalgia of memory lane. Yeah, I saw <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0209144/">Memento</a>, too. Subjective, creative memory. Yada, yada, yada. I don't buy it. Joe Rudi runs Retrosheet, Keith.
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<br />My own experience is eerily similar. There's not a lot I remember about the first game I ever attended. I know it was 1987 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Thus, I was 8. It's all a blur now, but I remember the Tigers were in town, the Royals lost and Alan Trammell had a big game. Oh, and that Kauffman Stadium was like some big, green, beautiful sanctuary with effervescent fountains in right field and that enormous scoreboard in center in the shape of the Royal crown.
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<br />As I comb through the box scores, it has to be <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08160KCA1987.htm">this one</a>: August 16, 1987. Family summer vacation to KC. Tigers 10, Royals 6. Alan Trammell went 3 for 5 with a double and triple, two runs scored. Trammell sealed the game with an RBI-double that broke a 4-4 tie, as Detroit scored 5 runs in the 7th inning.
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<br />I'll have to run this by Mom, though, who was keeping score and surely still has that scorecard tucked away in some corner of a closet back home. But this isn't the game that concerns me.
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<br />What concerns me is my very first baseball memory--the first game I ever watched on TV. It would have been the spring of that same year. The universe of baseball opened itself to me through a single pack Topps baseball cards in the green wrapper that I iniquisitively and fatefully picked up at the corner QuikTrip. Believe me, it's nothing short of Providence that an 8-year-old should discover Major League Baseball in the quaint Midwestern town of Sand Springs, OK.
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<br />I decided, all by myself (with perhaps a nudge from Providence himself), that I would watch a ballgame. So, with my entire baseball card collection spread out before me--all 15 of them--I sat down on a Saturday afternoon and watched the Game of the Week on NBC with Vin Scully and Joe Garagiola. Eerily similar to Woolner's baseball initiation, I witnessed the Boston Red Sox versus the California Angels. The memory permanently stamped in my head, so crystal-clear, like it happened just yesterday, is that of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/howelja02.shtml">Jack Howell </a>hitting a pinch-hit, broken-bat home run to win the game for the Angels and Vin Scully going bananas over this game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home run. As Scully so poetically intoned, those don't happen everyday.
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<br />So several weeks ago, for some reason these events replaying in my mind, I set out into the vastness of Retrosheet to re-discover this foundational moment of baseball-hood.
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<br />But guess what. According to Retrosheet--yep, you guessed it--that never happened. Not once. Not ever. No game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home runs.
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<br />Apparently, the Angels hosted the Red Sox over the weekend of May 1-3. On Saturday, the Angels emerged victorious, <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B05020CAL1987.htm">4-2</a>. Dick Scofield hit a home run. Jack Howell started in left and went 1 for 4. (Wow, Mark McLemore started at second in that game.)
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<br />Maybe it was the next weekend when the two teams again faced off, this time in Boston. Nope. The Angels clobbered the Sox <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B05090BOS1987.htm">9-1</a> with home runs from Wally Joyner and Devon White and a complete game, 5-hitter by Willie Fraser. Jack Howell started and went 0 for 4.
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<br />The two teams later faced off again in July, but both of these series took place during the week, so it couldn't have been then. Thus, I'm left with the grim reality that game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home runs do not exist. It's like I'm in second grade again raising my hand when the teacher asked who believes that unicorns are real. I honestly believed Noah just forgot to get them on the ark. I'd still like to think so. But in second grade, Mrs. Hooper ruined that one for me. Now Retrosheet is telling me game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home runs do not exist.
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<br />Now, I'm left with two roads:
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<br />1) My foundational childhood memories are a figment of my imagination. (This supposition is rather unsettling as that would also preclude that my ever being a <a href="http://www.padawansguide.com/gifs/luke.jpg">Jedi Knight </a>is at stake.)
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<br />2) Retrosheet is wrong. (This, for obvious reasons, is a much more comfortable way to go.)
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<br />For now, I'm going with the latter. Game-winning, pinch-hit, broken bat home runs really do exist, and Retrosheet is a big fat liar-head.
<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1076515354004081172004-02-11T11:02:00.000-05:002004-02-11T11:27:15.030-05:00<h2>Wanderings in statistical nihilism</h2>
<br />There's a scene in that <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0137523/">movie about the club you're not supposed to talk about </a>where the narrator complains, "It's just, when you buy furniture, you tell yourself, 'That's it. That's the last sofa I'm gonna need. Whatever else happens, I've got that sofa problem handled.'"
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<br />I thought I had that platoon split thing handled. Then I remind myself it's freakin' February and I need to get a grip. Fifty-five more days until serenity.
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<br />Thomas Ayers over at BallparkAnalysis.com attempts to distill the essence of the Primer conversation in a column titled <a href="http://www.ballparkanalysis.com/articles/021004.htm">Myth of Lefty Mashers</a>. He boils the argument down to two assertions: 1) To best predict how a right-handed batter will perform against left-handed pitching, don't look at his past performance against LHP. Rather, observe his performance against RHP and multiply by 1.09. 2) The converse is not true regarding left-handed batters against right-handed pitching.
<br /><blockquote><i>The reasons for this probably stem from the fact that, since RHP are predominant at any level of baseball, it is all but impossible for a RHB to reach the major leagues without developing the ability to hit RHP to a degree acceptable in the major leagues. Players who simply cannot hit RHP get left behind at college or in minor league baseball at some point. However, LHB are in a different scenario, as it is quite conceivable that, because they face limited LHP, they could simply never develop the ability to hit LHP, but can still hit RHP. A RHB who can't hit RHP will never make the majors, but its very conceivable that LHB who can't hit LHP could make the majors, and it happens all the time. In other words, while Toronto fans can expect Vernon to hit LHP better next year, Minnesota fans shouldn't expect anything but sucking from Jacque Jones against southpaws.</i></blockquote>
<br />I'll have to stew on this for awhile. The more I learn about baseball, the more I learn I don't know. I love it.
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<br />Now, with the Mariners bringing in yet another ex-Mariner lefty in <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=3952">Terry Mulholland</a>, my question comes back to: Just how important are left-handers in the bullpen?
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<br />Conventional wisdom dictates they are necessary to neutralize the Carlos Delgados and Jason Giambis of the league, those Herculean left-handed sluggers that cause crusty, old baseball managers to soil themselves in the late innings of a close game. Sometimes I wonder just how much of the righty/lefty effect is psychological.
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<br />According to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/rrereport03.html#teamtot">Michael Wolverton's Adjusted Runs Prevented</a>, the five best bullpens last season were found in Los Angeles (96.4), Houston (87.0), Anaheim (66.1), Seattle (61.6) and Arizona (54.1).
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<br />The Dodgers used lefties in 91 of 472.2 relief innings, or 19%. Tom Martin saw the most action in 51 of those innings, Steve Colyer pitcher 19.2, Troy Brohawn 11.2, Victor Alvarez 5.2 and Scott Mullen. In the NL West, these are the poul souls fed to Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez and Todd Helton like Christians in the Coliseum.
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<br />The Astros utilized lefties in 148.1 of 581.1 relief innings, or 26%. The Astros had the rare privilege of sporting a left-handed closer in Billy Wagner, who pitched in 86 innings. Beyond Wagner, though, they had no true left-handed setup man. Mike Gallo saw 30 innings of action, Nat Bland 20.1 and Bruce Chen 12. In the NL Central, that crucial left-on-left matchup wasn't near as a factor where only Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles appear among five teams, and Giles was traded at the deadline.
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<br />The Angels used lefties in 42.1 of 503.1 relief innings, or 8%. Scott Schoeneweis pitched 38.2 innings and then was traded to the White Sox at the July deadline. Rich Rodriguez pitched in 3.2 innings. This in a division featuring Ichiro!, Erubiel Durazo, Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock and Rafael Palmeiro.
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<br />The Mariners used lefties in 56 of 414.2 relief innings, or 14%. Arthur Rhodes would be the lone representative with 54 innings if it were not for those two innings of Matt White we'd all love to erase from our memories. Whiles the M's didn't have to pitch to Ichiro!, as the Angels staff did, they did see Garrett Anderson.
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<br />The Diamondbacks used lefties in 170.1 of 462 relief innings, or 37%. Present Mariner Mike Myers was used in the LOOGY (lefty-one-out-guy) role seeing just 36.1 innings in 64 games while Stephen Randolph pitched in 60 innings in 50 games. Eddie Oropesa saw 38.2 innings, Chris Capuano 33 and Dennis Reyes 2.1. While seeing some of the same brutal lefty opposition as the Dodgers, they would have also faced Fred McGriff, Shawn Green and Jeromy Burnitz. But seriously, I wouldn't have been too concerned with anyone carrying a bat and wearing Dodger blue last season.
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<br />It would appear that the significance of the left-handed reliever varies from organization to organization. Among these five, little seems to connect them other than their dominance. One team used lefties more than one third of the time; another spent half the season and enters the next without one all together. One used a lefty closer and no setup man; another used just one setup man all season. In the Angels case, one could say that good pitchers, and not necessarily left-handed ones, dominate right-handed batters.
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<br />Steve over at the <a href="http://www.noslenblog.blogspot.com/2004_02_08_noslenblog_archive.html#107643088075903791">Wheelhouse </a>provides the splits versus left-handed batters of the Mariners' key bullpen arms going into Spring Training. It leaves me scratching my head wondering why the M's have been so hellbent on acquiring every thirtysomething, retread, ex-Mariner lefty reliever when Hasegawa, Mateo and Soriano have been so dominant against lefties.
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<br />With two-thirds of their competition this year involving bats like Anderson, Chavez, Durazo, Blalock and Brad Fullmer, the Mariners really shouldn't be that concerned with stocking mediocre left-handed arms just for the heck of it.
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<br />So does it matter that Anaheim doesn't carry a single lefty for their bullpen going into spring training? Not if those right-handers are every bit as effective.
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<br />Then again, with the recent sabermetric buzz on platoon splits and Oakland stockpiling their bullpen almost exclusively with left-handers, one has to wonder what Beane, DePodesta and Co. know that they're not sharing.
<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1076429769961129502004-02-10T11:16:00.000-05:002004-02-10T12:29:24.920-05:00<h2>Heresy, statistics and other profound questions of the universe</h2>
<br />A question has been ruminating in my brain the last week or so. You see, for the over a year now I've endured the pining of the Mariners for a second left-hander out of the bullpen. Yesterday, satisfying the suspense of all these long months, the <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/159982_mari10.html">Mariners signed lefty Ron Villone</a>. (Doesn't that headline make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside on such a cold February day? Yes, the prodigal son returns, and I missed him so. Gag.)
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<br />But does the conventional wisdom that requires two left-handers in the bullpen really matter?
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<br />Then I read Rob Neyer's <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1728907">column </a>about Eric Karros. Then his <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1731104">follow-up reply to email</a>. Then the deluge of a <a href="http://www.baseballprimer.com/clutch/archives/00010551.shtml#comments_110">Primer thread </a>on the topic. And Jon Weisman trembles in his own <a href="http://jonthoughts.blogspot.com/2004_02_01_jonthoughts_archive.html#107613309616583515">crisis of faith</a>. A part of me thinks Rob is just being contrary. It was through him, after all, some years ago that I first learned to think that this platoon stuff was important. A part of me cries, "Foul heresy!" I feel like I've been told that the earth is not really flat <em>and </em>not the center of the universe. My head hurts.
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<br />Here's the crux of the process for me:
<br /><blockquote><i>Let me be very clear about this: Yes, there most certainly is a difference to hitting against righties and lefties. As a group, right-handed hitters fare roughly eight percent better against left-handed pitchers than they do against right-handed pitchers...
<br />
<br />Why would this be? Here's one theory (not my own, by the way) ... Growing up, right-handed batters face mostly right-handed pitchers, and so they get used to them. When they reach the minor leagues, it's not easy to hit a curveball or slider thrown by a right-handed pitcher ... but at least they've seen those pitches before. But there are very few left-handed pitchers in Little League, and few even in high school. So when a left-handed hitter enters professional baseball, having already spent many years learning to hit, he will probably have faced very few left-handed pitchers. And very few good left-handed curveballs and sliders.</i></blockquote>
<br />
<br />Makes perfect sense, and it fits precisely into my own limited baseball playing experience. I see no reason to believe that hitting a baseball against a right-handed person and a left-handed person are one and the same skill. They are two separate and distinct skills. My childhood included three years of organized Little League baseball. I saw but one left handed pitcher in one game. Freaked me out. Never seen anything like that arm angle and motion before. I struck out looking. Not that that was unusual for me, though. It's an extremely limited experience, but it's my experience. I'd love to ask someone with college or professional experience what theirs has been on the subject.
<br />
<br />Here's what makes my brow furrow, however:
<br /><blockquote><i>Now, here's the hard part ... All (or almost all) right-handed hitters innately have that 8-percent edge against left-handed pitching. No matter what a right-handed hitter did last year against left-handed pitching, or even over the last five years (or more), it's highly likely that he's innately 8 percent better against lefties than righties.</i></blockquote>
<br />
<br />All? What first pops into my mind is a quote from the late paleantologist Stephen Jay Gould dealing with means and medians. I couldn't remember it exactly, only that Nate Silver used it in last year's Baseball Prospectus introducing his PECOTA system. With a little help from the leprachauns that shovel the coal into the seach engine of the interweb thingy, I found <a href="http://cancerguide.org/median_not_msg.html">The Median Isn't the Message</a>.
<br />
<br />In short, at age 40 Gould was diagnosed with abdominal mesothelioma, a rare, terminal form of cancer that stamps its host with an eight-month expiration date. That's the average, according to statistics. Rather than succumb to the enivitability of the average, Gould understood that statistical averages simply do not exist in nature, and he lived another 20 years.
<br />
<br /><blockquote><i>We still carry the historical baggage of a Platonic heritage that seeks sharp essences and definite boundaries. (Thus we hope to find an unambiguous "beginning of life" or "definition of death," although nature often comes to us as irreducible continua.) This Platonic heritage, with its emphasis in clear distinctions and separated immutable entities, leads us to view statistical measures of central tendency wrongly, indeed opposite to the appropriate interpretation in our actual world of variation, shadings, and continua. In short, we view means and medians as the hard "realities," and the variation that permits their calculation as a set of transient and imperfect measurements of this hidden essence. If the median is the reality and variation around the median just a device for its calculation, the "I will probably be dead in eight months" may pass as a reasonable interpretation.
<br />
<br />But all evolutionary biologists know that variation itself is nature's only irreducible essence. Variation is the hard reality, not a set of imperfect measures for a central tendency. Means and medians are the abstractions. Therefore, I looked at the mesothelioma statistics quite differently - and not only because I am an optimist who tends to see the doughnut instead of the hole, but primarily because I know that variation itself is the reality. I had to place myself amidst the variation.</i></blockquote>
<br />
<br />Can I really believe that all right-handed batters have an 8% advantage against left-handed pitchers than right-handed ones? I don't think I can. The only thing I can say with certainty is that if I take any particular hitter, he most certainly <em>will not</em> have an 8% advantage in any specific at bat. But if it were true, does 8% really matter?
<br />
<br />Further, as Jon on his Dodger Thoughts comments that as he understands, "<strong>over time</strong>, the ratio between a right-handed batter's OPS against righty and lefty pitchers is consistently 1.09 to 1" (emphasis added).
<br />
<br />But if I'm a General Manager piecing together a roster, I'm not interested in a batter's specific skills over time. I'm interested in what his skills are right now today and what they will be tomorrow. Eric Karros's split tendencies his rookie season are irrelevant to what he offers Oakland off the bench next season. Over the course of his career, Karros may (or may not) reflect an 8% difference in his splits. But in all likelihood, he won't next season, and next season is what specifically concerns Billy Beane and the Oakland A's.
<br />
<br />I can wrap my head around the strategy in baseball of specialists and exposing platoons. I see the method in playing to the averages. It doesn't mean I like it; but I understand it. As a fan, my biggest pet peeve about watching ballgames is seeing multiple pitching changes in a half-inning. I see the necessity in a dire situation, but certainly not for the sake of "protecting" a 6-run lead. (Twice last year Bob Melvin used Arthur Rhodes to face one batter with a 6-run lead.)
<br />
<br />Wouldn't a better strategy be to simply acquire the best hitter/pitcher available regardless of their handedness?
<br />
<br />And the million dollar question still stewing in my crumpled and cramped head, that will have to wait for it's own post tomorrow, is how can it matter when two of the best bullpens last year were Seattle and Anaheim and they sported a grand total of approximately 90 innings of lefties between them (out of about 1000 total relief innings)? Does Anaheim enter the season with the best bullpen in baseball despite no left-handers at all?
<br />
<br />Stay tuned...
<br />
<br />In the meantime, go check out <a href="http://www.onlybaseballmatters.com/">Only Baseball Matters</a>. A year ago, I was reading this blog everyday, and I came to the conclusion that the Mariners needed some representation in this here blogging thing. With the spiffy new redesign, I hope this means that the stint in the witness protection program is over and John's back to regular posting.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1076342737699617152004-02-09T11:05:00.000-05:002004-02-09T11:08:02.420-05:00<h2>Tick, tick, tock</h2>
<br />One day closer to Opening Day.
<br />
<br />One day closer until <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5346">Ron Villone </a>is a Mariner.
<br />
<br /><tt><blockquote>Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi would not confirm the signing, which would fill the 40-man roster, saying only, "We're working on things" (<a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2001852814_mari07.html">Finnigan</a>, Times).</blockquote></tt>
<br />
<br />And just like that, the chunk of change that materialized from the remains of Kaz Sasaki has been spent on office supplies and Ron Villone. <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/159757_mari07.html">David Andriesen </a>of the P-I plays devil's advocate in response to the vitriolic tantrums on the P-I's fan forum for I-want-a-superstar-and-I-want-it-now. I say bravo to Dave for attempting to counter that movement, but he's plain wrong. His argument is six-fold:
<br />
<br />1. "There is no $9.5 million."
<br />
<br />Andriesen is like Spoon Boy in the <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0133093/">Matrix</a>: "Do not try to spend the $9.5 million. That's impossible. Instead, only realizie the truth." Wait for it. "There is no $9.5 million."
<br />
<br />Until the Mariners show good faith in their accounting practices, I say, yes there is. As <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/archives/2004_01_25_ussmariner_archive.html#107538688198537714">Dave Cameron </a>has noted before, "The Mariners have historically counted contract buyouts against their previous years payroll, so you have to state Sasaki's guaranteed 2004 money as $9 million." Then there's that pesky half a million in incentives Andriesen remarks that Mariners might or might not have awarded Sasaki. Doesn't matter. If you offer incentives you have to budget for that. That half a million doesn't just appear out of nowhere at the end of the season when the player has met the criteria. I'm not buying the these-aren't-the-droids-you're-looking for mantra from the M's here.
<br />
<br />2. "It's the worst time of the year to shop."
<br />
<br />Every day is the worst time of the year to shop when Bill Bavasi is the one with the shopping list. Yes, with catchers and pitchers reporting in mere days, Management is staring at the free agent leftovers, and that's not entirely their fault.
<br />
<br />The gross misconception here is that not even close to 30 of the teams think they've improved themselves. I guess Mr. Andriesen doesn't know any Dodger fans. He must have missed the White Sox Fanfest. Last time I checked the Marlins have yet to replace their Division Series MVP. Have even the reigning champs improved? The hapless Reds of Cincinnati look to have even less hap. And those Rangers that Andriesen jabs at look a heckuva lot better than that triple-A team in Milwaukee. If every team thinks they've improved, then the world is an obscenely rosy place and I'm missing out.
<br />
<br />3. "The Mariners don't know what they need."
<br />
<br />"What if Scott Spiezio hits 12 home runs in April? What if Joel Pineiro can't throw a strike to save his life?" What if monkeys fly out of my butt?
<br />
<br />I can tell you what the Mariners need. Position-player depth. 'Cuz right now, they got nothing. Noth-thing. This is a team one key injury away from irrelevancy. No Edgar or no Ichiro! or no Boone equals no runs.
<br />
<br />4. "What if the Mariners stink?"
<br />
<br />There's the pink elephant in the room. Worse than that, what if the Mariners stumble out of the gate, attendance drops precipitously by the All-Star break and the M's can't meet their budget? How dangerously close is the breaking point for this team? What is the worst worst-case-scenario the Mariners have planned for?
<br />
<br />5. "If the Mariners don't stink, somebody will."
<br />
<br />Pundits are never perfect, but if your best hope as an organization is in the bad luck of your competition, that's a sad, sad state and a ridiculously awful strategy for an organization with every resource, save desperate urgency, at its disposal to be a cutting edge franchise .
<br />
<br />Andriesen makes a point here that I haven't seen volleyed about save an email: A midsummer trade makes the team responsible for only a fraction of said player's contract. With $9.5 million, a sprinkling of creativity and all the stars aligning just so, you can afford to pick up Ordonez and Beltran at the deadline. Vegas sets the odds much, much more likely on my allegiance changing to the Yankees before the Mariners dream up a scenario that radical.
<br />
<br />6. "The Edgar Factor."
<br />
<br />That there is no plan B for Edgar is all the more reason to spend the money rather than sit on it. It should be the #1 priority for the Sasaki fund rather than scrambling to replace Sasaki's mere 30+ innings in the bullpen last year.
<br />
<br />So what does Bavasi currently have up his sleeve?
<br /><tt><blockquote>"We're not so much looking for an outfielder as guy who can protect Edgar (Martinez, designated hitter) and maybe play some first base," Bavasi said. "Burks would have been perfect, but we couldn't move on him until Sasaki left, and by that time he was far down the road with Boston. So we'll just keep looking around" (Finnigan).</blockquote></tt>
<br />Under rocks. Behind trees. In dumpsters. At the Goodwill. No worries, Bill. You'll find something. Maybe you can trade Quinton McCracken to Arizona for that Greg Colbrunn guy. Oh wait...
<br />
<br />Anyone want to suggest an over/under on the days until Bob Finnigan name-drops <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=3774">Andres Galarraga</a>?
<br />
<br />First base? Bing!
<br />
<br />Designated hitter? Bing!
<br />
<br />Right-handed complement for Olerud? Bing!
<br />
<br />Nice guy, feel good story, veteran presence, Seattle "face"? Bing!
<br />
<br />Now do yourself a favor check out <a href="http://baseballoutsider.com/index.htm">Baseball Outsiders</a>, which looks to be a rather diverse gathering of independent baseball writing on the web. Nick Stampfli currently has a thorough (and giddy, I might add) <a href="http://baseballoutsider.com/columnists/stampfli/02-05-04.htm">review </a>of the Mariners FanFest from a week ago.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1076081054063159052004-02-06T10:24:00.000-05:002004-02-06T14:17:21.110-05:00<h2>Did I do that?</h2>
<br />November 1987 was the month before my 9th birthday. The line in the local baseball card shop meandered around the room like a snake. When my turn finally came, I slid my '87 Topps Traded Ellis Burks card across the table. "What's your name?" the smiling, college-aged, extraordinarily normal looking ballplayer asked me. My card came back to me with the words, "To Peter, Ellis Burks." The blue sharpie letters were in an abnormally legible handwriting--his first name crafted into a series of loopy ringlets. That's my memory of Ellis Burks.
<br />
<br />This morning I read that Burks has returned once again to the Red Sox despite receiving a more lucrative offer from Bill Bavasi and the Mariners. According to <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/159558_mari06.html">David Andriesen of the P-I</a>:
<br /><tt><blockquote>Burks told reporters in Boston he spent a lot of time on the Internet comparing the two teams. The research and discussions with Red Sox GM Theo Epstein convinced Burks he had a better chance to win a championship in Boston.</blockquote></tt>
<br />Oops. Am I culpable here?
<br />
<br />First it's Curt Schilling checking the pulse of Red Sox Nation at <a href="http://pub208.ezboard.com/bsonsofsamhorn">SoSH</a> before committing to his trade. Now there's Ellis Burks surfing the web comparing two teams when one offer nearly doubles the other in monetary value. Theo Epstein seems to be cornering the market on internet savvy ballplayers--or at least the inquisitive-minded with a burning, competitive nature and an internet connection. In the back of my mind I really can't help but wonder if Pudge Rodriguez has heard of that interweb thingy.
<br />
<br />But is that mean-spirited, Bavasi-bashing, Mariner blogosphere to blame for Ellis Burks choosing Boston over Seattle? The answer is clearly no. All responsibility falls at the feet of this man who has no plan B should the most critical piece of his offensive attack breakdown, a piece that also happens to be the oldest and most fragile one on the roster. All responsibility falls at the feet of this man who has piddled around the past three months, whittling his manager's necessary 25 roster spots into 18-20 useful major leaguers. All responsibility lies at the feet of this man who has performed the once thought impossible task of transforming an irrelevant bench corps into an even more severe liability.
<br />
<br />After three months on the job and a whirlwind of transactions, has Bill Bavasi addressed the weaknesses of this team? At this point in the winter, is he just now expecting the fill them? Does he see a useful piece of the puzzle out there?
<br />
<br />"We hope so," Bavasi said. "If there is, we'll try to find one" (P-I).
<br />
<br />We hope... If there is... we'll try... 1... 2... 3... 4... AAAAAHHHHH!!!
<br />
<br />First question: Would Burks have been actually useful to the Mariners or is this another knee-jerk attempt such as the Omar Vizquel fiasco? No doubt, Burks would have become the best hitter period coming off the Mariners bench. He missed most of last season due to a pinched nerve in his elbow, and he's played just 28 games in the field the last three years, which would have given the M's two one-dimensional players in Ellis and Edgar. But that's a scenario the M's should have jumped on months ago given Edgar's injury risk.
<br />
<br />Over the last three years, Burks has no significant <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits3?statsId=4051&type=batting">splits </a>to speak of. He's a better hitter than most of the hitters already in the M's everyday lineup against righties and lefties. PECOTA projects Burks to hit .261/.344/.449 in 297 at bats. Tone that down just a wee bit for Safeco Field. It also predicts a 58% chance for Burks to improve from last year (it really wouldn't take much) and just a 17% chance for his skills to drop off the face of the planet, a la Cirillo.
<br />
<br />He would have been a perfect piece to substitute those Mariners (I'm talking to you, Ibanez and Olerud) who turn into pumpkins against lefties. I'm imagining late innings against the all-lefty-relief-corps of Oakland. Bob Melvin decides to take the bat away from Raul Ibanez for... Willie Bloomquist. Bavasi's had all winter to deal with this gaping hole, and so far, his strategy seems to be "If I ignore it, it will go away."
<br />
<br />Which leads to second question: Why did Bill Bavasi wait to negotiate with Ellis Burks until the first week of February? And don't tell me that the M's didn't have a spare million in change until now. That's not a good enough answer.
<br />
<br />No doubt, if I'm a productive hitter with maybe one last chance at a championship run, money is no option, and my choices are to play for a team run by Theo Epstein or one by run by Bill Bavasi, I'm going to Boston. No doubt.
<br />
<br />Clearly, for ballplayers like Burks and Schilling, players curious enough to do their homework, it's about more than money. The sentimental 9-year-old in me wants to say I could have told you that about Ellis Burks just from the way he looked at me 16 years ago.
<br />
<br /><strong>UPDATE</strong>:
<br />This post has been corrected. Thanks to Tribe Fan Dave for pointing out that Burks's '03 injury was a <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2003/0610/1566031.html">pinched nerve </a>in his elbow that caused numbness and weakness in his hand rather than a knee problem. Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075990124093314002004-02-05T09:08:00.000-05:002004-02-05T11:08:53.890-05:00<h2>How the west was won</h2>
<br />In a random fit of speculation, perhaps it's the nervous, February restlessness, I cobbled together the following table. These are what the 25-man rosters of the four AL West organizations may be, based upon their current 40-man rosters, a half a cup of common sense, three-quarters tablespoon name recognition (particularly for that Ranger pitching staff), a dash of clairvoyance and a pot of <a href="http://www.candyboots.com/wwcards/inspirationsoup.html">Inspiration Soup</a>.
<br />
<br /><b>American League West Rosters </b><br /><table><tr><th align="left"><font size = 1>Position</font size></th><th align="center"><font size = 1>Seattle</font size></th><th align="center"><font size = 1>Oakland</font size></th><th align="center"><font size = 1>Anaheim</font size></th><th align="center"><font size = 1>Texas</font size></th><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>C</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Davis</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Miller</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Molina</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Diaz</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>1B</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Olerud</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Hatteberg</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Erstad</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Teixeira</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>2B</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Boone</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Ellis</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Kennedy</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Young</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>SS</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Aurilia</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Crosby</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Eckstein</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Rodriguez</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>3B</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Spiezio</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Chavez</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Glaus</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Blalock</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>LF</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Ibanez</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Kielty</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Guillen</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Mench</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>CF</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Winn</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Kotsay</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Anderson</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Nix</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>RF</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Ichiro!</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Dye</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Guerrero</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Jordan</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>DH</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Martinez</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Durazo</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Salmon</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Fullmer</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>Bench</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Wilson</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Melhuse</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Nieves</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Laird</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>Bench</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Hansen</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Karros</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>DaVanon</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Perry</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>Bench</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Bloomquist</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Byrnes</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Amezaga</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Dellucci</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>Bench</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>McCracken</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>McMillon</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Figgins</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Nivar</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>Bench</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Santiago</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Menechino</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Halter</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>E. Young</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>SP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Garcia</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Hudson</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Colon</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Rogers</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>SP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Moyer</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Mulder</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Washburn</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Park</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>SP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Pineiro</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Zito</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Escobar</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Dickey</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>SP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Franklin</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Redman</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Ortiz</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Lewis</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>SP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Meche</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Harden</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Lackey</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Benoit</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>RP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Guardado</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Rhodes</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Percival</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Cordero</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>RP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Hasegawa</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Bradford</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>F. Rodriguez</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Zimmerman</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>RP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Soriano</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Rincon</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Shields</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Nelson</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>RP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Mateo</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Hammond</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Donnelly</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Powell</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>RP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Jarvis</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Mecir</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Weber</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>R. Rodriguez</font size></td><tr><td align="center"><font size =1>RP</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Myers</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Duchscherer</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Sele</font size></td><td align="center"><font size = 1>Shouse</font size></td></table>
<br />
<br />Certainly, much will happen over the course of the next two months. (Opening Day is two months from today!) The final two to three spots on the rosters--the back ends of the bullpen and bench--will likely shuffle around throughout the camps. This is under the assumption that the Angels handle their overloaded outfield by moving Erstad to first.
<br />
<br />Just a couple of random thoughts while compiling this:
<br />
<br />*Top to bottom, the Angels have a damn fine bullpen.
<br />
<br />*As bad as the Mariners' bench is, the benches for each of the other teams are about as spectacular as a <a href="http://www.candyboots.com/wwcards/spectacular.html">frankfurter</a>.
<br />
<br />*How would you like Orel Hershiser's job? "You want me to put together a viable pitching staff with that?" While the Mariners roster is pretty much set, one spring story to watch will be what the Rangers do with these pitchers. Seriously, they could make a reality show out of this--"Texas Aces." Get my agent on the phone.
<br />
<br />So who enters camp with the advantages? Let's take a look position by position:
<br />
<br /><strong>Catcher</strong>: As much as I've complained about the Mariners' catching assets, or lack thereof, the M's are not alone in that predicament. Come one, come all--the AL West catching out-makers. Put a bat in their hands, and I wouldn't trust any of them to break the pinata. Molina is a gold glove defender, and deservedly so, but he's a blackhole in the lineup. If you were to threaten my life, I would have to with Ben Davis and say that the Mariners have the edge here. However, the question is akin to asking who I'd rather see naked, Barbara Walters or Joan Collins? Yeah, thanks a lot for asking. Seattle.
<br />
<br /><strong>First Base</strong>: If the Angels go with the foolish plan of moving their greatest defensive asset to the least important defensive position, it's not them. Question of the day: Is John Olerud's precipitous drop in power due to an inability to hit the ball as far as he used to or because he's lost a step or two or three getting to second on those shots to the gap? I believe I've mentioned it before, but I swear, Johnny O hits the longest singles you will ever see. He still has the batting eye of a hawk, but I must say, the Rangers now have the most potent first baseman in the division in Mark Teixeira. He'll have no challenge putting the ball over the fence. Just wait and see. Texas.
<br />
<br /><strong>Second Base</strong>: Now that we know 2001 wasn't a fluke, and I can in all confidence that the Mariners boast the best second baseman in all of baseball. This one's not even close. Seattle.
<br />
<br /><strong>Third Base</strong>: As thin as the position is across baseball, the AL West is stacked at the hot corner with arguably the three best in the league. There are three All-Stars and a guy whose played a total of 134 games at third over the last 8 years. It's sort of like that Sesame Street game "Which of these is not like the others?" I give the edge to Oakland. Chavez is a glove wizard and if he could just learn to hit a left-handed pitcher (just even one, it doesn't have to be all of them), I'd be as magnanimous in my praise as Billy Beane. Oakland.
<br />
<br /><strong>Shortstop</strong>: Texas. Why even ask this question?
<br />
<br /><strong>Left Field</strong>: Now this is an amazingly mediocre group of corner outfielders. At least Bobby Kielty gets on base at a respectable rate. Oakland.
<br />
<br /><strong>Center Field</strong>: Now if the Angels indeed move Garrett Anderson, they sport one of the best center fielders in the game, both in offensive and defensive contribution. Mark Kotsay will be a large improvement for the A's, but he is not Anderson's equal. Anaheim.
<br />
<br /><strong>Right Field</strong>: If only every month was May: Ichiro! hit .389/.415/.558 last May. He also hit .242/.287/.333 for the month of August. I blame Jayson Stark as his Ichiro!-for-MVP column eerily coincides with Ichiro!'s 2003 collapse. Otherwise, Ichiro!'s the man. Both Dye and Jordan could make good preseason picks for Comback Player of the Year. They were both once useful players. I'm pretty sure Bob Melvin is the only human being on the planet that honestly believes Vlad Guerrero is not the best right fielder in the game, much less the division. Anaheim.
<br />
<br /><strong>Bench</strong>: Barbara Walters or Joan Collins? Yuck. Karros, Byrnes and McMillon are at least useful parts. Oakland.
<br />
<br /><strong>Starting pitching</strong>: Texas... just kidding. Hershiser might just have to take the mound himself. Seattle had one of the strongest rotations last year, but their three youngest pitchers set career highs in innings pitched, so we'll have to see how they recover the season after. Their protecting defense is a mere shell of its former self, and Rafael Soriano hangs in the balance. Meanwhile, down I-5, there's the Big Three. Aw heck, call them the Big Guys, Big Staff, whatever. You'd think ace pitchers grew on trees in Oakland. Oakland.
<br />
<br /><strong>Bullpen</strong>: Texas... just kidding. This is another strength of the division. Again, Soriano matters to the Mariners, as moving him to the rotation weakens the bullpen. Much talk will be made in the next months over a lefty for the Mariners. With a relief corps of Guardado, Hasegawa, Soriano and Mateo, the last two slots are inconsequential, really. Billy Beane seems to have acquired every left-handed reliever. Conspiracy theorists postulate this is to keep opponents from neutralizing his pet third baseman in the late innings. Meanwhile, Bill Stoneman should write the textbook on bullpen construction. Anaheim.
<br />
<br />For those keeping score, that's Oakland 3, Anaheim 3, Seattle 2, Texas 2. A crude methodology, I most readily admit, and it proves nothing but that there is no front-runner in the division at this point. Perhaps we should revisit this again sometime. So can we start playing the games already?
<br />
<br />In the meantime, try some of <a href="http://www.candyboots.com/wwcards/quoteenchilada.html">Marcy's Enchilada</a>.
<br />
<br />(html credits to <a href="http://jonthoughts.blogspot.com/">Weisman</a>).Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075911098329237672004-02-04T11:11:00.000-05:002004-02-04T11:23:35.840-05:00<h2>Vlad: The now only slightly less intimidating impaler</h2>
<br />In perusing Jeff Sullivan's Angels in the Outfield preview over at <a href="http://leoneforthird.blogspot.com/2004_02_01_leoneforthird_archive.html#107576591649241507">Fire Bavasi</a>, this little bit jumped out at me at slapped me around a bit:
<br /><tt><Blockquote>At the same time, it needs to be pointed out that there is a 96-point difference between Guerrero?s career OPS on turf and on natural grass, and also that he?s been 70 points worse away from home. This isn?t to say that he?s a bad player, of course, but rather that his days of near-.600 SLG and 1.000+ OPS figures are likely gone for good, as he?ll regress from Ubermensch level to just really, really good.</blockquote></tt>
<br />Lost in all the Angels-as-World-Series-favorites hoopla is how playing away from Olympic Stadium is going to affect <a href="http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/5737/splits?year=career&type=Batting">Vlad Guerrero</a>. Typically a players grass/turf split isn't going to matter significantly. The AstroTurf stadium seems to have died along with the careers of Kevin Costner and Hootie and the Blowfish. The SkyDome in Toronto, the Metrodome in Minnesota, Tropicana Field in Tampa and Olympic Stadium in Montreal represent the last remnants of the carpeted-baseball fad. With the close of Veteran Stadium in Philadelphia last season, there are now only four turf stadiums. Of those five most reason turf stadiums, two have been located in the AL East, two in the NL East and one in the AL Central. Thus, the analysis of grass/turf splits or even inside/outside splits, particularly to west coast teams like the Mariners, becomes nearly irrelevant.
<br />
<br />Exceptions, however, are Guerrero and those like him who have spent their entire career playing baseball in a concrete sarcophagus such as Olympic Stadium. Guerrero has played more than half of his career inside and on turf, and so a careful look at how these situations affect his hitting is important.
<br />
<br /><pre> AB H XBH BB K AVG OBP SLG
<br />Turf 2272 751 320 243 290 .331 .400 .616
<br />Grass 1491 464 174 138 194 .311 .375 .545
<br />
<br /> AB H XBH BB K AVG OBP SLG
<br />Indoors 2041 675 295 196 262 .331 .394 .619
<br />Outdoors 1722 540 199 185 222 .314 .386 .550</pre>
<br />Essentially, the two above scenarios are the same. Baseball indoors equals baseball on turf, and vice versa. The exceptions, of course, are the Vet and Skydome, which account for the 200 AB difference for Vlad.
<br />
<br />The obvious conclusion is that Vlad has been a better hitter on turf indoors. Whether the difference is the indoor air or the carpet is nearly impossible to differentiate. What is significant, however, is the fact that Guerrero will be playing rougly 110 games in the outdoor grass parks of the AL West in 2004 (unless it's a drizzly early spring day in Seattle).
<br />
<br />A more careful inspection reveals that there is essentially no difference in Vlad's game regardless of the stadium. He hits for extra bases in 14% of his at bats both on turf and indoors, 12% outdoors and 11% on grass. He walks in 11% of his at bats both on turf and outdoors, 10% indoors and 9% on grass. He strikes out in 13% of his at bats in each circumstance. The differences are negligible. The difference in his batting average between turf and grass is .020. That's 20 more hits in 1000 at bats, or 10 over the course of a typical 500-at bat season, or roughly one every two weeks.
<br />
<br />Unfortunately for the Mariners and the rest of the AL West, an outdoor stadium on grass isn't Vlad's kryptonite.
<br />
<br />Amazing, isn't it, how one lousy hit every two weeks creates a .096 difference in OPS?
<br />
<br />And, if Gary Sheffield at third warrants the title "Infield of Doom," then Mark McLemore at third in Yankee pinstripes makes their infield "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse."
<br />
<br />I have now found my new daily first stop on the web: <a href="http://fumbling.com/reckon/">Dead Reckoning</a>. I think you may agree.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075822593458238312004-02-03T10:36:00.000-05:002004-02-03T10:42:10.373-05:00<h2>Oh be careful little ears what you hear</h2>
<br />From Sunday's <a href="http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/redSox.bg?articleid=487">Boston Herald</a>:
<br /><tt><blockquote>Flush with about $8 million in cash now that closer Kaz Sasaki flew the coop, the Seattle Mariners are weighing trading away outfielder Randy Winn and some pitching for either the White Sox' Magglio Ordonez or Milwaukee's Geoff Jenkins (Silverman).</blockquote></tt>
<br />Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.suntimes.com/output/sox/cst-spt-sox01.html">Chicago Sun-Times </a>reports Magglio Ordonez isn't going anywhere:
<br /><tt><blockquote>For fans still holding their breath waiting for [General Manager Ken] Williams to pull the trigger on a last-minute trade, it now would be time to exhale. Williams isn't shopping his players. He told Saturday's crowd that Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez aren't going anywhere, and unless somebody knocks his socks off with a deal he just can't refuse (equal or better talent that make less money), the Sox are set for Opening Day.</blockquote></tt>
<br />But really, what do you expect Williams to tell White Sox fans--"Say, what do you guys think of Randy Winn?"
<br />
<br />Magglio Ordonez will not be a Mariner for two reasons. Reason #1: Ken Williams wants a deal that "knocks his socks off." The only sock-knocking deals Bavasi has shown to be to capable of go along this line: "Hey Mr. GM, what will you give me for Ben Davis?" "Uh, how about nothing?" "Cool, it's a deal!" Reason #2: Magglio Ordonez plays right field. Ichiro! plays right field. Bob Melvin has all but said Ichiro! ain't movin' to center. And that, my friends, would leave the Mariners with two right fielders and no center fielder. That is, unless you want to see Quinton McCracken everday in center.
<br />
<br />Speaking of the above-mentioned White Sox FanFest... It sure sounds a bit more electric than the one in Seattle last weekend, don't you think?
<br /><tt><blockquote>About 2,500 Sox fans were given the chance to ask questions of a five-person panel that consisted of manager Ozzie Guillen, general manager Ken Williams, announcers Ken ''Hawk'' Harrelson and Darrin Jackson, and assistant general manager Rick Hahn.
<br />
<br />It didn't take long for the pessimists to surface, obviously committed enough to brave frigid temperatures to attend the evening gathering but not willing to supply any warmth.
<br />
<br />Anger was vented in many forms, from the team's inability to make a significant offseason move to the sense of going public with Frank Thomas' decision to not return phone calls to the hiring of an inexperienced manager in Guillen, who no longer could believe what he was hearing.
<br />
<br />When a series of somber questions bombarded the panel, Guillen had heard enough.
<br />
<br />''Why are you so negative?'' Guillen implored into his microphone, his face turning red.
<br />
<br />Harrelson interjected, lashing out at Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti.
<br />
<br />Fireworks night never was this spectacular.
<br />
<br />When one fan tried to lighten the mood by taking the microphone to ask Williams if he wanted to go get a beer afterward, Williams' response was quick: ''After this session, I'm going to need more than a beer.''
<br />
<br />It was about the last lighthearted thing Williams said as his mood turned aggressive, inviting everybody to come to the microphone to get issues off their chest.
<br />
<br />When one young adult fan started a question about raised ticket prices by stating he was a recent college graduate with a new job but still on a tight budget, Williams fired back: ''Good for you. What is your question?'' (<a href="http://www.suntimes.com/output/sox/cst-spt-sox31.html">Padilla, Sun-Times</a>).</blockquote></tt>
<br />Can you feel the love? I wonder (wink, wink) why the Mariners didn't host a similar town-meeting-style panel discussion with Bill Bavasi, Bob Melvin, assistant GM Lee Pelekoudas, Dave Niehaus and Rick Rizzs?
<br />
<br />My top ten questions to such an imaginary panel:
<br />
<br />10. Mr. Rizz, how do you muster the same intensity for a first inning infield pop-up that you do for a 9th-inning, game-winning home run? Have you considered decaf?
<br />
<br />9. Mr. Melvin, you used only five starters all season despite the fact young arms such as Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro were clearly fatigued in the second half. How did you justify this while the Mariners were in the heat of a pennant race?
<br />
<br />8. In three of the last four seasons, the Mariners have finished behind the Oakland Athletics, a team of vastly inferior resources. Why is this? Have any of you read Moneyball? Why do you feel the A's have reached the playoffs for four consecutive years with the Mariners watching them on TV for the past two Octobers?
<br />
<br />7. Mr. Bavasi, you traded Jeff Cirillo's albatross salary and wasted roster spot to San Diego for three of Kevin Towers's salary albatrosses and wasted roster spots. Why did you let Mr. Towers bully you like that?
<br />
<br />6. Is there actually a Plan B should Edgar's quirky hamstring act up again? Will his legs be wrapped in duct tape all season long or will he be provided with a specially designed wheelchair so that he can still bat in the lineup should his legs give out?
<br />
<br />5. The Braves of the 90's effectively integrated home-grown talent into their pennant-winning teams year in and year out. What keeps the Mariners from adopting a similar organizational philosophy? Do Rafael Soriano and Chris Snelling have any future whatsoever with this club?
<br />
<br />4. The Mariners have collected a plethora, sorry, I mean, a lot, of pitching talent in the farm system. How long will it be left to rot there while every lefty thirty-something retread is brought in to patch up the bullpen? And if torn labrums are so contagious, shouldn't some kind of quarantine be put in effect?
<br />
<br />3. What is the Mariners backup plan should Ben Davis fail to live up to his "Mariners Catcher of the Future" label?
<br />
<br />2. Mr. Bavasi, you've been quoted as saying the Angels are the best team in the division. How did this happen, as the Mariners finished 16 games ahead of Anaheim last season, averaged 2,500 more fans per home game than Anaheim last season and are spending more than $10 million more than the Angels (<a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=ana">according to ESPN</a>)?
<br />
<br />1. Mr. Bavasi, I'm a recent college graduate. I double-majored in communications and Russian poetry with a minor in basket weaving. Furthermore, I have no experience whatsoever in baseball. How might I go about applying for your job?
<br />
<br />On a more technical note, I have repaired the <a href="http://rss.sportsblogs.org/makeRSS.php?url=http://marinermusings.blogspot.com/">rss feed </a>for the site, so it is once again operational. Additionally, Mariners Musings now has an <a href="http://marinermusings.blogspot.com/atom.xml">Atom feed </a>available. Oh the joys of syndication.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075733874996872472004-02-02T09:57:00.000-05:002004-02-02T10:00:10.483-05:00<h2>Don't mess with me, porkchop. What day is it?<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107048/">*</a></h2>
<br />Another six more weeks of winter and I'm going to crack.
<br />
<br /><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0081505/"><img src="http://www.medlina.com/Jack%20nicholson.jpg"></a>
<br />
<br />No joke.
<br />
<br />And please don't tell me that pitchers and catchers report this month. This month?! Are you serious? Three measly weeks until... ?
<br />
<br />Please don't say the S.T. words around me. My baseball-fan-co-worker described those activities of March baseball best when he said to me the other day they are "worse than nothing." When Julius Caesar is warned about the <a href="http://www.literaturepage.com/read/shakespeare_juliuscaesar-4.html">Ides of March</a>, 'tis not a forewarning of his expiration date. Rather, 'tis a premonition against that flirtatious, lusty blonde that poses as spring baseball.
<br />
<br />For that's all it is. A cruel tease. A vile flirt. There's something about it that's so fake. A mirage in the desert. It doesn't count. A hollow imitation. Something like when you're 14 and the hottest girl in junior high smiles and waves your way. You freeze. Shyly acknowledge and wave back. Only to find her pack of friends right behind you. It's such a tease.
<br />
<br />Tuesday, April 6: Anaheim at Seattle. That's the only day that matters.
<br />
<br />In the meantime, Punxsutawney Phil <a href="http://apnews.excite.com/article/20040202/D80F5CF00.html">saw his shadow </a>this morning. They don't postpone Opening Day for that, do they? Do they?
<br />
<br />All work and no baseball makes Jack a dull boy. Man, I'm going to crack. What do you think, Tony?
<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075479924692556512004-01-30T11:25:00.000-05:002004-02-02T10:16:23.296-05:00<h2>DIPS (not the Super Bowl snack, here)</h2>
<br /><tt><blockquote>1) Mathematics is the language of nature.
<br />2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
<br />3) If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge.
<br />Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature (<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0138704/">Pi</a>, Aronofsky).</blockquote></tt>
<br />As <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_25_ussmariner_archive.html#107540897700318983">Dave </a>and <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_25_ussmariner_archive.html#107540959777132134">Derek </a>have already pointed out, Bob Finnigan has a lesson or two yet to learn about the mathematical language of baseball. If Finnigan writes a baseball fantasy preview, and you wager money in your fantasy baseball league, don't read that preview, that is, unless you do so strictly for entertainment purposes. He couldn't be any more wrong about Ryan Franklin improving on his 2003 even if he windexed his crystal ball.
<br />
<br />Jay Jaffe, the mad scientist behind <a href="http://www.futilityinfielder.com/blog/blog.shtml">Futility Infielder</a>, has graciously calculated and posted the <a href="http://www.futilityinfielder.com/dips03.html">2003 DIPS </a>(Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics). I'll let him explain the background:
<br /><tt><blockquote>The Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS) system was invented by Voros McCracken. His studies of pitching statistics suggest that major league pitchers do not differ greatly on their ability to prevent hits on balls in play. The rate at which a pitcher allows hits on balls in play has more to do with defense and luck than to his own skill, and can vary greatly from year to year.
<br />
<br />This controversial and somewhat counterintuitive way of looking at pitching statistics has its advantages. The chief one is that we can do a better job of evaluating a pitcher's future performance by concentrating on the defense-independent things he does--strike batters out, walk them, plunk them, and give up homers--than we can by considering the effects of the defense playing behind him.</blockquote></tt>
<br />In essence, the pitcher's destiny is in his own hands when it comes to walks, strikeouts and home runs, but once that ball goes into play, it's up to the seven players behind him whether that ball is caught or if it falls for a hit. In theory, these peripheral statistics--walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed--are much more helpful in predicting a pitcher's success than his ERA, which can be influenced by the quality of the defense behind him.
<br />
<br />According to DIPS, no pitcher in baseball was aided more by his defense than Ryan Franklin. It's not even close. The difference between his actual ERA and what his ERA should have been given his peripherals is more than a run and a half per nine innings, which is pretty remarkable.
<br />
<br />Here's a table of the 2003 Mariners (min. 200 batters-faced)
<br />(BFP=batters faced, ERA=actual ERA, dERA=DIPS ERA)
<br />
<br /><pre> BFP dERA ERA Diff
<br />Moyer 897 4.20 3.27 0.93
<br />Pineiro 890 4.05 3.78 0.27
<br />Franklin 877 5.26 3.57 1.69
<br />Garcia 862 4.82 4.51 0.31
<br />Meche 785 4.79 4.59 0.20
<br />Mateo 338 4.10 3.15 0.95
<br />Hasegawa 283 3.93 1.48 2.45
<br />Rhodes 228 3.37 4.17 -0.80
<br />Soriano 201 1.93 1.53 0.40
<br />
<br />Team 4.36 3.76 0.60</pre>
<br />As a team, the Mariners' defense made the pitchers look better by more than half a run per game, which comes to about 100 runs over the course of a season. With Bill Bavasi completely punting the defense of the left side of the diamond, the Mariners' pitchers are sure to see more of their balls in play drop of hits. No starter will see this more than Ryan Franklin.
<br />
<br />Shigethoshi Hasegawa is another who will greater suffer from the weakened offense, and too a lesser extent, so will Jamie Moyer and Julio Mateo. What all four of these pitchers have in common is the relatively low amount of hitters they strikeout and walk, and thus, a relatively high number of balls they allow into play.
<br />
<br />Difference for pitchers like Soriano, Pineiro, Garcia and Meche is the fewer balls in play they allow as their strikeouts or walks or both are at or above the league average. We shouldn't expect a whole lot of change next year from them.
<br />
<br />Unfortunately for the Mariners, the one pitcher whose ERA was actually greater than what his peripherals show, thus the only one likely to improve in 2004, is the one pitcher the Mariners let walk away--Arthur Rhodes.
<br />
<br />Jay provides an exhaustive list of DIPS links across the web if you're so inclined. <a href="http://jonthoughts.blogspot.com/2004_01_25_jonthoughts_archive.html#107518294297865281">John </a>and <a href="http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2004_01_01_yankeefan_archive.html#107509833255808581">Larry </a>have also touched on the subject this week.
<br />
<br />There may be one saving grace to Franklin. In attempting to explain the discrepancy in Barry Zito's ERA and dERA, Ken of the aptly titled <a href="http://barryzitoforever.blogspot.com/2003_12_21_barryzitoforever_archive.html">Barry Zito Forever </a>explains, "Recent scrutiny of DIPS has found some exceptions. Some pitchers do demonstrate some control over BABIP. Knuckleballers. Extreme flyball pitchers. Lefthanders. And the most recently discovered exception, pitchers who get lots of infield popups." Franklin qualifies as an extreme flyball pitcher. Is he an exception to the rule? We'll certainly see.
<br />
<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075402324453900332004-01-29T13:52:00.000-05:002004-01-29T13:56:26.826-05:00<h2>Frigid day blues</h2>
<br />From the days of my youth I remember a Calvin & Hobbes strip in which Calvin steps outside into the snow. His face contorts violently and then he remarks how he hates it when his boogers freeze.
<br />
<br />That was me this morning as I waited for an hour on the train platform in the 5-degree dawn air--the kind of arctic air that lights your lungs on fire while at the same time freezing your boogers.
<br />
<br />I feel I can't help pointing the following comment out. I know he's a Padre now, but for some reason my heart is still in denial. It's like we've broken up and I'm having trouble letting go. Come on, Pete, just let go. Or better yet, "Run, you fool!" Steven Goldman, in his latest <a href="http://www.yesnetwork.com/team/index.cfm?cont_id=226609&page_type=wide">Pinstriped Bible column</a>, contemplates the conundrum the other Boone has brought upon the Bronx:
<br /><tt><blockquote>Third route is to trade for an expensive vet who isn't much use to his present team, such as Adrian Beltre, Phil Nevin, Jeff Cirillo, or Shea Hillenbrand. Beltre is young but consistently awful. Nevin's best days are likely past, but he would still be an offensive upgrade on Boone. <em><strong>Cirillo, like Gandalf, has fallen into darkness while crossing Moria. If a player hasn't shown up since 1999 it's probably safe to call back the St. Bernards</strong></em>. [emphasis added]</blockquote></tt>
<br />And if ever there was a day that our nation yearned for a hero, that day is <a href="http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040129/D80CGPD80.html">today</a>. Chris Snelling, arise, for this is your hour.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075305519574147242004-01-28T10:58:00.000-05:002004-01-28T11:08:41.373-05:00<h2>The ruling passion conquers reason still</h2>
<br />Do you follow hockey? I don't. Well, I didn't.
<br />
<br />During my formative years in northeastern Oklahoma, I can't exactly say hockey was on my radar screen. Like sushi, public transportation and the $10-movie, it was a rumor of some other planet. Even in Seattle--no hockey. But things are different now for me. I've had an epiphany of sorts. I live in Northern Virginia, and there's this team called the Capitals. And here I thought they were talking about that domed building downtown.
<br />
<br />But I digress... Unless you follow hockey or are a general sports fan within the Beltway you may have missed <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50620-2004Jan26.html?nav=hptop_tb">this little story</a> from Sunday evening:
<br /><tt><blockquote>Washington Capitals owner Ted Leonsis was involved in a physical altercation with a season ticket holder at MCI Center on Sunday night after being taunted and jeered by fans during the team's loss to Philadelphia, the Capitals' first home game since Leonsis traded all-star winger Jaromir Jagr to the New York Rangers.
<br />
<br />The fan, Jason Hammer, 20, a resident of the District, said Leonsis grabbed him by the neck and threw him to the ground after he had led a mocking chant of Leonsis during the game and hoisted a sign chiding him. Some witnesses explained the confrontation differently, offering varying accounts of the severity of the clash (LaCanfora, Post).</blockquote></tt>
<br />
<br />Now, there's plenty of he-said-he-said, kiss-and-make-up going down. Leonsis, who is also the vice chairman of AOL, has publicly apologized to Hammer and invited him to enjoy a game in the owner's box, and Hammer will deny pressing charges. However, the NHL will still <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53985-2004Jan27.html">investigate the matter </a>and may fine or suspend Leonsis. <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54412-2004Jan27.html">Thomas Boswell </a>today writes that these are just the fans the Caps should be embracing. Fellow DC blogger and rabid hockey fanatic <a href="http://www.ericmcerlain.com/offwingopinion/">Eric McErlain </a>has been all over this story both <a href="http://www.ericmcerlain.com/offwingopinion/archives/002879.php#002879">today </a>and <a href="http://www.ericmcerlain.com/offwingopinion/archives/002874.php#002874">yesterday</a>.
<br />
<br />I'll readily admit to being naive to specific details of the Washington Capitals and the NHL, but I can't help but feel a wee bit jealous. I mean, think about this. Can you imagine Mariner CEO Howard Lincoln coming to blows with a fan at Safeco Field? Can you imagine Bill Bavasi answering 100 emails a day from critical fans explaining why he signed Raul Ibanez and not Mike Cameron?
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<br />Now, absolutely not am I advocating physically attacking Mr. Lincoln nor any member of the Mariners syndicate management. It was a pretty stupid move by both Jason Hammer and Ted Leonsis. And maybe Ted Leonsis deep down really is a bad man of the cookie-cutter sports owner variety.
<br />
<br />I just wish the Mariners were run by people that passionate about their team and their fans. Art Thiel in his book records then-Nintendo-CEO Howard Lincoln's response to Nintendo's interest in buying the Mariners a decade ago as, "What the f*ck are you thinking?" Now that is a man in touch with the intangible passions of local professional sports. And he's running my team.
<br />
<br />Where are the executives who are warm-blooded, frenetic fans?
<br />
<br />Elsewhere, <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2001845258_mari28.html">Bob Finnigan </a>reports that Bill Bavasi has discussed Pudge Rodriguez with Scott Boras. The golden question is, though, have they discussed the future of Carlos Beltran? One name Finnigan drops is Ron Villone, who might be an effective lefty swingman. However, last year Villone was one of those rare cases being more effective against righties than lefties, though his 3-year splits don't bear that out. Eeh.
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<br />For once, though, <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/158367_mari28.html">John Hickey </a>outdoes Finnigan in the game of ridiculous name dropping: Raul Mondesi and Travis Lee. Yuck, yuck, yuck. Raul's a rightfielder, right-handed hitter who gets on-base just one-third of the time. Lee's a left-handed first baseman who finds it a challenge getting on-base against left-handed pitching. Neither fills an emergent need. Which probably makes them items #1 and #2 on Bill Bavasi's to-do list.
<br />
<br />The Mariners blogosphere continues to swell to potentially world dominating proportions:
<br />
<br /><a href="http://marinerthink.blogspot.com/">Sons of Buhner </a>articulately contrasts the off-season strategies of both <a href="http://marinerthink.blogspot.com/2004_01_25_marinerthink_archive.html#107508792032881438">Bill Bavasi and the Padres' Kevin Towers </a>and <a href="http://marinerthink.blogspot.com/2004_01_25_marinerthink_archive.html#107526868466811525">Bavasi and the Royals' Allan Baird</a>.
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<br /><a href="http://marinerminors.blogspot.com/">Mariner Minors</a>: A little over a month ago I pined for a Mariners blog in the flavor Brad Dowdy's excellent Atlanta-themed <a href="http://www.bravesbeat.com/nopepper/">No Pepper</a>. I got my wish, and I'm so happy.
<br />
<br /><a href="http://jeffshaw.blogspot.com/">San Shin </a>takes it's name from the Japanese term for "three strikes." Author Jeff Shaw astutely points out just how <a href="http://jeffshaw.blogspot.com/archives/2004_01_25_jeffshaw_archive.html#107526966814190681">clueless </a>the Seattle GM is. Might I add that Sasaki pitched only 33 innings last year. I believe that hole you speak of, Bill, has already been patched.
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<br />Unfortunately, the <a href="http://www.bartleby.com/100/230.84.html">ruling passion </a>of the Seattle Mariners conquers reason, and it's name is not "Baseball."Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1075153302115706602004-01-26T16:41:00.000-05:002004-01-27T13:31:57.840-05:00<h2>Snow day! (and some unforgettable Mariner moments)</h2>
<br />I can't remember the last time I had one of these (the snow day, that is). Snow, ice, blech. I have cabin fever as it is.
<br />
<br />Pardon the narcissitic aside here, but I just noticed the total number of visitors to this site since last May. According to <a href="http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/sea/ballpark/sea_ballpark_history.jsp">MLB.com</a>, Safeco Field seats 47,116. That means there have been enough visitors of this blog to just about fill Safeco Field to capacity. And that, my friends, is a surreal thought. Thank you one and all for visiting and visiting again and again. Then again, it could just be my enthusiastic kid sister racking up the hits just to boost my ego. I gotta love her.
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<br />So I thought I'd follow up the list of Worst Mariner Non-Pitcher seasons with a reciprocal list of Best Mariner Non-Pitcher seasons. I did the research, and you know what I found? That was a boring project. No kidding. The top ten seasons are all Junior, Alex and Edgar. That's it. Now don't get me wrong. Those are three of the four greatest Mariners ever. I just find Leroy Stanton and Juan Bernhardt more interesting to write about.
<br />
<br />Maybe it's me, but I'm more often than not drawn to the villain rather than the hero. I don't think I'm the only one. I mean, the name of the sequel to <em><a href="http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0102926/">Silence of the Lambs </a></em>was not <a href="http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0212985/"><em>Clarice</em></a>. George Lucas did not choose to write a trilogy explaining the origin of Han Solo. Apparently I'm not the only one who finds <a href="http://www.rotten.com/library/bio/religion/judas-iscariot/">Judas Iscariot </a>the most fascinating character of the Gospels, from a strictly literary perspective.
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<br />Yeah, so Cirillo-sized tragically flawed Gollum-villains. Fascinating. Griffey-sized superheroes. Boring.
<br />
<br />But here's that list, just for kicks, if despite the these Bavasi Dark Ages, one can remember those golden days of Seattle baseball past:
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<br /><strong>10. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml">Alex Rodriguez</a>, 1998.</strong>
<br />
<br />Alex hit .310/.360/.560 with an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/rodrial01.shtml">EqA </a>of .307. He became baseball's second 40/40 player when he slugged 42 home runs and stole 46 bases (in 59 tries, a 78% success rate). He led the league in hits with 213 while scoring 123 runs and driving in 124. Meanwhile, his defense was worth 23 runs above replacement, and overall, he was worth 9.8 wins above replacement to the third-place Mariners.
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<br /><strong>9. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/1995.shtml">Edgar Martinez</a>, 1995.</strong>
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<br />Edgar's 1995 just edges Alex's 1998 on the basis that Edgar put together the best purely offense season in Seattle history. He hit .356/.479/.628 with an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/martied01.shtml">EqA </a>of .366. He led the league in batting, on-base percentage, on-base plus slugging (1.107), games played (believe it or not, 145 in the strike-shortened season), runs scored (121), doubles (52), adjusted OPS (183, despite playing in the Kingdome) and times on base (307). He was worth 9.8 wins to the first-ever pennant winning Mariners.
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<br />And what self-respecting Mariner fan can forget <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B10080SEA1995.htm">October 8, 1995</a>? American League Division Series. The evil Yankees. Deciding Game 5. Eleventh inning. Yankees score in the top of the inning. Ace <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcdowja01.shtml">Black Jack </a>on the mound for New York. Cora leads off and bunts a single, eluding the last second swipe-tag from Mattingly. Junior singles to center. Cora scurries to third. Strike one on Edgar. Edgar drives the next pitch to the leftfield corner. Cora scores. Tie game. Carom off the wall. Junior screams around third. Williams throw. Junior scores. Absolute delirium. Mariners win. The defining moment in Seattle baseball history. Edgar went 12 for 21 (.571/.667/1.000) in that series with 5 extra base hits, 6 walks and 10 RBI.
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<br /><strong>8. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/griffke02.shtml">Ken Griffey, Jr.</a>, 1998.</strong>
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<br />Junior hit .284/.365/.611 with an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/griffke02.shtml">EqA </a>of .318. At the age of 28, he led the league in home runs with a career-high 56. He also added 33 doubles, 20 stolen bases, 76 walks, while scoring 120 runs and driving in 146. He finished fourth in the MVP vote and won a gold glove with his defense that was worth 27 runs above replacement. Overall, Junior was worth 10.9 wins above replacement to the third-place Mariners.
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<br /><strong>7. Ken Griffey, Jr., 1993.</strong>
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<br />At the age of 23, Junior hit .309/.408/.617 with an EqA of .337, the best offensive season of his career (sans an EqA of .341 in strike-shortened '94). He hit 45 home runs to go along with 38 doubles and led the league in total bases (359) and extra base hits (86). For the only time in his career, he walked (96) more often than he struck out (91). He finished fifth in the MVP voting; Frank Thomas won unanimously in a rather dubious selection in the scathing light of advanced metrics. Griffey won his fourth consecutive gold glove with a defense worth 17 runs above replacement. Overall, he was worth 11 wins above replacement for the as usual third-place Mariners.
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<br /><strong>5. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/boonebr01.shtml">Bret Boone</a>, 2001/2003.</strong>
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<br />Take your pick, really. Boonie had essentially the same season in both '01 and '03, so he gets #5 and #6. His offense is just a shade better in '01, and his defense is just a shade better in '03. In 2001, Boone hit .331/.372/.578 with an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/boonebr01.shtml">EqA </a>of .317. Since chicks dig the long ball so much, Boone clocked a career-high 37 of them and led the league in runs batted in with 141. He finished second in the league in hits (206) and total bases (360). He finished third in the MVP vote behind Ichiro! and Jason Giambi. His defense was worth 33 runs above replacement, and his overall worth was 11.1 wins above replacement for the historic, 116-win Mariners.
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<br />Two years later, proving '01 was not a fluke, Boone hit .294/.366/.535 with an EqA of .311. How might his '01 season not be better than that? As one may note, his on-base percentage was essentially the same despite a .040 point drop in his batting average. He had 20 fewer hits in '03 but still sluged the same number of extra base hits, walked 28 more times and stole three times as many bases. He won his third gold glove with a defense with 37 runs above replacement. Overall, he was worth 11.1 wins above replacement for the second-place Mariners, yet he managed only 10th in the MVP vote.
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<br /><strong>4. Ken Griffey, Jr., 1991.</strong>
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<br />In his third professional season, just old enough to drink, Junior hit .327/.399/.527 with an EqA of .325. He slugged 22 home runs with 42 doubles and 71 walks. Nothing too jaw-droppingly spectacular, really. Except that he was just 21. It's his defense that makes this Junior's second best season--a career best 35 runs above replacement. Overall, he was worth 11.2 wins above replacement to the fifth-place, yet first ever over-.500, Mariners.
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<br /><strong>3. Alex Rodriguez, 1996.</strong>
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<br />In just his first full season in the big leagues, the 20-year-old Alex hit .358/.414/.631 with an EqA of .334. Yes, the Kingdome was such a friendly park for hitters. He finished runner-up in the American League Most Valuable Player balloting by a mere 3 points. He led the league in batting, runs scored (141), total bases (379) and doubles (52). And if a 20-year-old shortstop hitting 36 home runs doesn't make you exclaim, "Hot dog!", I don't know what does. At shortstop, his defense was worth 32 runs above replacement, and overall, he was worth 12.0 wins above replacement to the second-place Mariners.
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<br /><strong>2. Ken Griffey, Jr., 1997.</strong>
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<br />Winning the first Most Valuable Player Award in Mariner history, Junior hit .304/.382/.646 with an EqA of .332. He led the league in slugging, runs scored (125), total bases (359), home runs (56), runs batted in (147) and extra base hits (93). He won the award unanimously, and rightfully so. He also won his eighth consecutive gold glove with a defense worth 29 runs above replacement. Overall, Junior was worth 12.3 wins above replacement for the pennant-winning Mariners.
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<br /><strong>1. Alex Rodriguez, 2000.</strong>
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<br />While Alex's raw numbers are slightly better in '96, his 2000 season is even better given the fact he was hitting in Safeco Field, rather than the Kingdome, and also because he doubled his walk total. He hit .316/.420/.606 with an EqA of .337. With 41 home runs, Alex topped 40 for the third consecutive year, and he was still just 24. He reached a career high in bases on balls with 100. His previous high had been just 59, the year previous. He scored 132 runs, drove in 134 and finished third in the AL MVP vote. You can certainly argue that Alex was more valuable than 2nd place DH Frank Thomas, but good luck arguing he was better than Jason Giambi that year. Tough call. Alex's defense was worth 34 runs above replacement, and overall, he was worth 12.4 wins above replacement for the pennant-winning Mariners.
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<br />Someone explain to me please how only in 1998 could these guys have overlapping great seasons? (Please don't tell Junior he's not #1).
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<br />Now, let's see if I can dig up anymore villains...
<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074873601959688002004-01-23T11:00:00.000-05:002004-01-25T08:28:00.890-05:00<h2>Round up the usual suspects</h2>
<br /><tt><blockquote>"We won't live and die with the same lineup this season," Melvin said. "I'm going to do what I think is the right thing. The law of the land will be mine" (<a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/157788_thie23.html">Thiel, P-I</a>).</blockquote></tt>
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<br />From all accounts, Bob Melvin is ready to break out of his shell and shake up the lineup. One of Melvin's habits last season that I found most baffling was his rigid adherence to his lineup. And from a certain perspective I can understand this.
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<br />I am a creature of habit. I find I thrive in the security of routine. I like to take the 7 am train every morning. I'll eat my lunch at 12:30 everyday. I check my email at the sametime everyday. And when my routine gets derailed, I get grumpy. I panic. For crying out loud, don't interrupt me. Some find the life of ritual and routine boring. As for me, well, it's my solace, and I'm addicted. And maybe I really should seek help or something.
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<br />Were I a ballplayer, I imagine I would like my "role" specifically defined for me--that my job is the everyday third-baseman, that I bat second in the lineup everyday, etc. Are ballplayers as ritualistic as I am? I'm convinced so.
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<br />But on the subject of batting lineups and Melvin's radical ideas to shake it up a bit for spring training, and specifically moving Ichiro from lead off slot to the "clutch" #3 hole. Here's an excellent argument is support of that move:
<br />
<br />2001-2003
<br />None on - .319/.350/.430 (1348 AB)
<br />Runners on - .346/.417/.460 (670 AB)
<br />Scoring position - .389/.483/.497 (360 AB)
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<br />Those are substantial enough sample sizes to derive some meaning from them. While Ichiro is a very good leadoff hitter (a leadoff hitter's primary objective being to get on base), he's not a leadoff hitter in the prototypical Rickey Henderson-mold (but then who is?), and he's a much more successful hitter with runners on base ahead of him. He doesn't work the count, but he does make contact enough to justify his role as a table-setter. However, I believe Melvin would do well to slip Ichiro lower in the batting order to give him more opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position. After all, he's been hitting behind Jeff Cirillo and Dan Wilson the past few years, and the primary goal of the game being to score more runs than the other team.
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<br />Now, some will argue that lineups don't matter. They're probably right. I mean, how many runs difference over the course of 162 games are we talking if you move Edgar into the leadoff slot and Ichiro to sixth and just sheer random madness? But it does affect the dynamic and strategy of the whole team. Clump all of your lefty hitters together, and it offers the opposing manager the opportunity to bring in his lefty-killer late in the game to neutralize an entire inning. Alternate your high on-base hitters with your Jeff-Cirillo-out-machines, and you'll never get a rally going.
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<br />If I had the opportunity to devise the Mariners lineup, I would subscribe to the strike-first-strike-hard-no-mercy-sir theory. I want to score in the first inning, so I want my best hitters at the top of the lineup. I want to clump my high on-base hitters together at the top and tuck my out-makers at the bottom. I'll alternate righties and lefties. Here's how the Mariners faired last year in terms of on-base percentage from each lineup slot, along with the character(s) responsible:
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<br />#1 - .353 (Ichiro, almost exclusively)
<br />#2 - .344 (Guillen, also Winn, McLemore and Sanchez)
<br />#3 - .379 (Boone, little bit of Edgar)
<br />#4 - .387 (Edgar, little bit of Olerud)
<br />#5 - .367 (Olerud, little bit of Cameron)
<br />#6 - .328 (Cameron, also Winn)
<br />#7 - .327 (Winn, also Cirillo and McLemore)
<br />#8 - .307 (Cirillo, also Sanchez and Wilson)
<br />#9 - .287 (Wilson, also Davis and Bloomquist)
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<br />Thus, Melvin put together a pretty efficient lineup: Good hitters clumped at the top, bad hitters clumped at the bottom. The very best hitters were 3-4. But how does one make it better, and how does one capitalize on Ichiro's obvious strength of hitting with men on base ahead of him?
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<br /><tt><blockquote>Manager Bob Melvin said yesterday he plans to experiment with Ichiro batting third, with Randy Winn leading off and John Olerud in the second spot (<a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/157770_mari23.html">Hickey, P-I</a>).</blockquote></tt>
<br />The biggest question in pulling Ichiro from the top spot is then, who leads off? Melvin wants to experiment with Winn. I'm not sure I like that idea, but we'll run with it. (Winn hit .317/.375/.492 in 300 at bats for the Devil Rays in '02). Maybe it's not such a bad idea.
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<br />So using last year's OBPs and their pitchers per plate appearance, here's Melvin's new top-of-the-lineup idea:
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<br />#1 - Winn (.346/3.6) (S)
<br />#2 - Olerud (.372/3.9) (L)
<br />#3 - Ichiro (.352/3.5) (L)
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<br />I rather like the look of that. Winn isn't that much from Ichiro, in terms of getting on-base, and he might even improve on that next year if he's given a single role in the lineup. Last year, Melvin jerked him up, down and around the lineup. Moving Olerud up would greatly increase the production from the 2-hole. Furthermore, at this point in his career, Olerud's strength is getting on base while his power has greatly diminished. Hitting second would greatly capitalize on that strength while de-emphasizing that weakness. Olerud works the count, sees a lot of pitches, which would allow ample opportunities for Winn to run, and Olerud doesn't strike out often, which gives Melvin the option of hit-and-run. I would guess, then, that the rest of the lineup would look something like this:
<br />
<br />#4 - Edgar (.406/4.3) (R)
<br />#5 - Boone (.366/3.9) (R)
<br />#6 - Ibanez (.345/3.9) (L)
<br />#7 - Aurilia (.325/3.5) (R)
<br />#8 - Spiezio (.326/3.5) (S)
<br />#9 - Davis (.284/3.6) (S)
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<br />Following Ichiro with Edgar and Boone takes away the intentional walk that managers have been so fond of giving Ichiro in rally opportunities. I might even go as far as swapping Ichiro and Edgar, as crazy as a 5-9, 172-pound cleanup hitter might sound. It breaks up the lefty-lefty-righty-righty comibination and guarantees Edgar, the M's most productive hitter, an at bat in the first inning of every game, as well as another runner on base for Ichiro. That would, however, pair Olerud and Edgar, the two-toed sloths of the team together, and that would make for many double play opportunities.
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<br />Looking at this lineup, I'm rather happy. I like it better than Oakland's and Texas's. Maybe even Anaheim's. If Bob Melvin can think out of the box and successfully experiment through spring training and it sticks into the regular season, then there may be hope after all.
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<br />And how's that for optimism?
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<br /><em><strong>UPDATE:</strong></em>
<br />Admiral Dave Cameron of <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_18_ussmariner_archive.html#107488024192722749">USS Mariner </a>gives a response. He's absolutely right: Dropping Ichiro behind base-clogger(s) Olerud and/or Edgar robs him of his running game. And the M's need to be milking every strength they've got with this lineup.
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<br /><em><strong>UPDATE II:</strong></em>
<br />Admiral <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_18_ussmariner_archive.html#107500202616236869">Derek Zumsteg </a>weighs in, considering the groundball effect and double plays. He further adds this consideration:
<br /><tt><blockquote>There is an important thing to consider, though, and that's whether players will take to it. Performance-oriented analysts (like Y.T.) generally scoff at notions like "it takes a special skill to pitch the ninth inning" but if Ibanez is going to be pissy about trying to hide his weaknesses, and Ichiro only wants to bat first, no matter what, and so forth, the team has to weigh whether that unhappiness and potential performance hit is worth it to try for the marginal potential advantage.</blockquote></tt>
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<br />
<br />Also, new blogger Andy Stallings of <a href="http://marinerthink.blogspot.com/2004_01_18_marinerthink_archive.html#107496414667165730">Sons of Buhner </a>speculates what the lineup might look like with a little bit of Pudge.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074787197907715982004-01-22T10:59:00.000-05:002004-01-22T11:18:02.700-05:00<h2>To Pudge, or not to Pudge? That is the question...</h2>
<br />What's that sizzle I hear this morning? That thick aroma coaxing me awake and out of bed? Could it be bacon? Sausage, biscuits and gravy with fresh coffee? Nope, it's Seattle's own culinary baseball wonderboy <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2001841435_mari22.html">Larry Stone </a>throwing a little Pudge on the Mariner hot stove:
<br /><tt><blockquote>The departure of closer Kazu Sasaki opens a wealth of possibilities for the Mariners, and it seems probable that the first one they will explore seriously is All-Star catcher Ivan Rodriguez, if he's still on the market. (Times)</blockquote></tt>
<br />He goes on to quote Bill Bavasi saying nothing happens until Sasaki's situation is resolved and an unnamed baseball source saying that could be within a week. All signs point to the Players Union cooperating with both Kaz and the Mariners to bring a swift and trouble-free conclusion to the matter. The biggest obstacle appears to be the strict and exact wording of the proposal to keep this scenario as a one-time event.
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<br />So what do the Mariners do about the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4680">Ivan Rodriguez </a>sweepstakes? There appears to be mutiny on the horizon upon the <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_18_ussmariner_archive.html#107461445048088033">USS Mariner </a>on the subject. Pudge, or no Pudge?
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<br /><em><strong>Reasons why the Mariners should ignore Pudge:</strong></em>
<br />
<br />1. Pudge has managed to play in 120 games only once in the last 4 years--last year--with an injury rap sheet that includes his back and knees. Not good on a cather's resume.
<br />
<br />2. Pudge will be 32 entering the 2004 season. Only Johnny Bench had seen more games behind the plate before the age of 29, and his career collapsed at age 34 before ending the next season. Yogi Berra last caught 100 games at the age of 34. Ted Simmons last saw 100 games at 32. Mika Piazza is 35. He didn't catch 100 games last year, and he won't this year either. Time is cruel to catchers, and there's a lot of mileage on those knees--13,076 innings to be exact.
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<br />3. Detroit has a four-year, $40 million offer on the table. Ichiro just signed a four-year, $44 million deal with the Mariners. He's the Mariners first 8-figure-salary player, and I don't imagine Management being quite that generous anytime soon. Is Pudge really worth just a million dollars a year less than Ichiro? Not unless he brings with him the monetary value of an entire industrialized nation's fan base.
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<br />4. Pudge is a client of Evil Agent Scott Boras.
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<br />5. His last name is Rodriguez, which means he's probably a cousin or something to that Alex guy. Like the frat boy in the Energizer commercial who swears off dating girls named after states because of a bad experience with a Georgia, Seattle should stay the heck away from any and every Rodriguez.
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<br />6. With a good chunk of the "old guard" set to fall off the payroll next year (Wilson, Olerud, Martinez), the Mariners have to be thinking ahead and would do well to invest in a young, marquee player to build the rest of the club around. Pudge is not that player. Vlad would have been ideal. On the horizon, come the trade deadline and next winter, are Carlos Beltran, Magglio Ordonez, Nomar Garciaparra and Eric Chavez, among others, who will be free agents. Signing Pudge now to a multi-year deal is a reactionary move, and there are better investments just months away. With their stream of revenue, recent reputation of a winning ballclub and highly competitive division, there is no reason why the Mariners should not be the movers and shakers of the division. Not the club playing catch up.
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<br /><em><strong>Reasons why the Mariners should sign Pudge:</strong></em>
<br />
<br />1. Our current stash of catchers suck. All 38 of them. Mariners catchers combined to "hit" .235/.276/.354 last year with 10 home runs, 57 runs scored, 85 RBI, 33 doubles, 2 triples, 34 walks, 115 strikeouts in 565 at bats, as well as going 0 for 0 on the basepaths. No on-base. No power. No speed. No nothin'.
<br />
<br />Comparatively, Pudge himself collected 511 at bats and hit .297/.369/.474 last year with 16 home runs, 90 runs scored, 85 RBI, 36 doubles, 3 triples, 55 walks and 92 strikeouts. He also stole 10 bases in 16 tries. He set a career high for walks and posted the second highest on-base percentage of his career. Pro Player Stadium in Florida is also a much more difficult park to hit in than Safeco Field.
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<br />Baseball Prospectus has just made their 2004 PECOTA projections available (subscription required). Dan Wilson projects to .249/.290/.364 in 226 at bats; Ben Davis .246/.314/.401 in 245 at bats; Pat Borders .250/.291/.386 in 100 at bats. Still more nothin'. Meanwhile, Ivan Rodriguez projects to .292/.352/.495 in 454 at bats. That's a higher slugging than any other Mariner projection, even Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez.
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<br />And the Mariners have nothing on the horizon in the minor league system. There's Wiki Gonzalez and his work ethic reputation. There's Jim Horner; he's 30. There's Scott Maynard; he's 27. There's former #1 pick Ryan Christianson; he only played in 72 games last year between High-A Inland Empire and Double-A San Antonio.
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<br />2. According to <a href="http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2520">Will Carroll</a>, Under the Knife author, "Rodriguez took, and reportedly passed, a physical on Thursday in Detroit. I've said it before in this space and I'll say it again: teams are not failing to sign Rodriguez over concern for his back. They're doing it because...well, I don't really have a good reason." Rumors are Pudge is in the best shape of his career.
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<br />3. PECOTA, based upon past players of similar age and makeup, further projects the following EqA's for Pudge over the next three years: .285, .284, .280. Last year, the system projected .293 for him, and he hit <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/rodriiv01.shtml">.292</a>. It doesn't forecast a precipitous drop in Pudge's production until 2007, which would make a three-year contract a reasonable proposition, but a four-year one quite dangerous.
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<br />4. With a good chunk of the "old guard" set to fall off the payroll next year (Wilson, Olerud, Martinez), the Mariners have to be thinking ahead and Pudge is a perfect fit. Larry Stone mentions a Puerto Rican connection with Edgar. With Edgar gone next year, Pudge can take on some designated hitter at bats, saving his knees and back.
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<br />5. There's more to baseball than length and monetary size of contract. The Mariners won twice as many games as the Tigers last year. They don't need to either match or best Detroit's offer. After 13 years, Pudge finally tasted his first World Series last year. I find it extremely difficult that he is eager, to any degree, to join the worst baseball team in recent history.
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<br />6. Larry Stone also mentions that Bill Bavasi and Scott Boras are good buddies--which makes sense when you think of a hunter/prey relationship.
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<br />Should the Mariners be contacting Boras about Rodriguez? I say: Absolutely. That's a guarded "absolutely," by the way. We all know my feelings on Carlos Beltran, don't we? That should be priority numero uno.
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<br />A one-year deal wouldn't interfere with that. But short of it, a two-year deal worth $18 million or a three-year deal in the $27-29 range I could endorse. But I'll leave the suits to work out the details.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074703448985316582004-01-21T11:44:00.000-05:002004-01-21T11:54:48.530-05:00<h2>Oh the humanity</h2>
<br />Unfortunately, I must be brief this morning.
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<br />His superpower is writing some of the most stilted, awkward metaphors I think I've ever read, but <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/157439_thiel21.html">Art Thiel </a>writes an excellent column today focused on Sasaki. In it he attempts to shine the light on the humanity of this enigmatic character in the Mariner story. After all, this is the first legitimate closer in club history. He broke the team record for saves in just three years. And the fans show no remorse, seeing nothing but freed payroll to spend? Just read the whole thing if you haven't already.
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<br />There's more than my gut telling me there's more to the story than Kaz is letting on. I believe there's a story of sadness beneath the hyped veneer, one of a tragic hero forced to grapple with his own hubris. I truly hope that when Kaz says he has something more important in life than baseball that it's more than a clever, pretty line for the cameras. Behind all the statistics, salaries and witty banter, ball players are still flawed human beings no different from myself. Reminders such as these are a cold snap back to reality. I indeed wish Kaz and his family the best.
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<br />Meanwhile, <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2001840703_sasaki21.html">Larry Stone </a>provides some insightful comments regarding Eddie Guardado undoubtedly filling Sasaki's shoes.
<br /><tt><blockquote>"Guardado's three-year, $13 million contract was structured for him to succeed Sasaki as closer next year, with reported escalations of about $2 million in each of its last two years. He also had the ability to opt out of the contract after the 2004 and '05 seasons if he wasn't projected as the closer. Guardado apparently could profit from a change of roles in the upcoming season, with a clause calling for an extra $1 million if he finishes 60 games.
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<br />"But interestingly, Guardado's agent, Kevin Kohler, said yesterday that the subject of Sasaki's potential departure was broached during negotiations" (Times).</blockquote></tt>
<br />All which leads one to believe to Mariners are not as surprised as they're acting to the press. It would appear that the signings of Hasegawa and Guardado were certainly orchestrated for a specific purpose and also with the foreknowledge that all was not well in Sasaki-land. We may never know.
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<br />Eddie says, "I'm ready to rock, bro."
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<br />Music to my ears on this 23-degree January day.
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<br />And might I add that the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1713730">Royals avoided arbitration </a>with Carlos Beltran with a one-year, $9 million dollar contract. Hold on, isn't that just about what the Mariners are saving on Sasaki? How long until July 31? No, I will not speculate... I will not speculate...Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074612942450507512004-01-20T10:35:00.000-05:002004-01-20T11:45:57.843-05:00<h2>Sayonara, Sasaki-san</h2>
<br />Now why is it that the first image in my head is one of Bill Bavasi scrambling through the Official Mariners' Rolodex for the number of Bobby Ayala's agent? ("I know it's got to be here somewhere!")
<br />
<br /><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1712852">Kaz Sasaki will not be pitching again for the Mariners</a>. Not in Spring Training. Not next year. Not ever.
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<br />One has to wonder if seeing <a href="http://www.imdb.com/gallery/ss/0325710/Ss/0325710/LS-6069r.jpg?path=pgallery&path_key=Cruise,%20Tom">Tom Cruise </a>in <em>The Last Samurai </em>was a factor.
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<br />So that's it then. Sayonara. Sasaki's closing career in Seattle closes <a href="http://www.cs.umbc.edu/~evans/hollow.html">not with a bang but with a whimper</a>. And yet again, Management is forced to handle the sticky contractual cobwebs of an unprecedented transaction. Like Junior and Lou before him, Kaz joins a growing list of Mariners evacuating the premises to the mantra of "Family First!" Geez, you'd think Seattle was some remote Pacific island. It's no wonder Pat Gillick had an affinity for the hometown boys.
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<br />Thankfully Kaz leaves no gaping wound to the roster in his wake. He did pitch only 33 innings last year. The M's already have a trio of speculative trio of "Closers" ("I hate the word, as I hate hell...")--Hasegawa, Guardado and Soriano. And any chance that a team has to make the payroll of it's highest-paid player just suddenly one morning vanish, it's definitely a good thing. Particularly when that highest-paid player is an aging, injury-riddled, league-average, easiliy replaceable right-hander.
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<br />The problem of course comes in how Management chooses to cash in this sudden lotto ticket. With these guys, it's not unlike handing a $100 bill a punk kid hanging outside the CD store and expecting him to invest in his future. I'm that skeptical.
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<br />Catcher is the glaring hole in the lineup that Management refuses to address. (Come on guys, the emperor is buck naked.) However, I'll not be hitching myself to the Pudge Rodriguez <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_18_ussmariner_archive.html#107458755924860891">bandwagon</a>. I blame comments like these:
<br /><tt><blockquote>"The logistics of terminating Sasaki's contract could be problematical and might be drawn out long enough to prevent the team from investing the savings in the dwindling group of unsigned free agents... With the likelihood that the Players Association and commissioner's office will get involved, it figures to get complicated.
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<br />"'This could take a while,' said a baseball official" (Stone, <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2001839944_mari20.html">Times</a>).</blockquote></tt>
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<br />And John Hickey writes:
<br /><tt><blockquote>"'The money attached to his contract is in place,' Bavasi said. 'He is still on our roster. That will remain so until such time as he is a free agent or he is released to sign with another club. At this point, (using the money elsewhere) is not part of the discussion.'
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<br />"There is much about the process that is unknown, given that players don't generally walk away from $8 million guaranteed contracts. Because of that, getting Sasaki his divorce from the Mariners is likely to take at least three or four weeks" (<a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/157314_mari20.html">P-I</a>).</blockquote></tt>
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<br />So it's not exactly like the M's suddenly have that $8 million in cash to bundle up and offer Pudge or Greg Maddux or even Maels Rodriguez anytime this week. I believe Management would be wise to save the money in a rainy-day-July-31 fund. Anyone else want to take a ride on the Carlos Beltran bandwagon? If I've got $8 million falling off trees and more payroll to drop in '05, that's my one and only target.
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<br />In the meantime, making a modest, little, maybe one-year offer to <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits3?statsId=4748&type=batting">Eric Karros </a>shouldn't be out the question. It should be common knowledge that John Olerud at this point in his career can hit lefties, much less Barry Zito and the A's all-lefty bullpen squad, about as well as I can. Okay, maybe a bit better. Despite this obvious fact, none of Management's bench acquisitions thus far have addressed this glaring weakness. Now granted, Karros was quite possibly the most grossly overpaid everyday first baseman in pro ball last year. However, he would make an excellent Olerud-backup for those Zito/Mulder/Washburn starts or those late innings in Oakland. Karros has smacked around left-handed pitching to the tune of .316/.389/.515 in 307 at bats over the last three years. Why he's seen nearly three times as many plate appearances from righties can only to be attributable to the albatross of a contract the Dodgers gave him. He'd make a valuable role player on the Mariners, which is precisely why I can't imagine the M's even considering him. Then again, he is 36.
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<br />As for who replaces Sasaki? Hasagawa's an option, as he proved last year. However, as I've mentioned before, Hasagawa pitches for contact and his ridiculous ERA last year was a direct result of the tight defense last year. The tight defense is gone and Shiggy is going to be giving out hits like nobody's business. Mark my words.
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<br />Guardado? Going with Everyday Eddie would require that one of the lefty <a href="http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/sea/news/sea_press_release.jsp?ymd=20040116&content_id=628772&vkey=pr_sea&fext=.jsp">NRI's </a>sticks. But if it means Bobby Madritsch gets a more serious look, I'm all for it. However, I'm of the opinion that the "Two Required Lefties in the Bullpen at All Times" rule is a bit overrated. Certainly, one wants the odds on their side when facing Jason Giambi or Carlos Delgado, but if you've got a righty that dominates lefties, then what's the point?
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<br />Soriano? As much as I would love to see Soriano in the rotation, there is concern over his pitch repertoire. Two years ago, when he was given time in the rotation, he would dominate the lineup the first two times through and get ravaged the third time. He was a two-pitch pitcher, and I have yet to hear how the development of his change-up is coming. If it's not, then certainly the bullpen is his future. I only wish Bob Melvin or Bryan Price might have the imagination to use Soriano as a multi-inning Mariano-Rivera-like "Closer". He's far too good to be limited to just the 9th inning, yet maybe just not good enough to last through the 6th if he starts. Give him the closer's role, putting him in the 8th inning and effectively ending the game two innings early. It would be unorthodox, so I'm not getting my hopes up.
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<br />And lastly, <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/157321_leve20.html">John Levasque </a>puts a rather bizarre spin on the Sasaki story that grabbed and shook my attention:
<br /><tt><blockquote>"And yet Sasaki... is being hailed across the Internet today as a savior for his desire to separate himself from the team that wanted him in the worst way four years and 129 saves ago. Rarely is there this sort of unanimity among fans.
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<br />"'Finally, we get a break this off-season,' one blogger wrote yesterday, clearly ready to bid Sasaki goodbye.
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<br />"'I've been ecstatic about the news today,' said another.
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<br />"'I see WS on the horizon,' gushed a third, in reference to either the World Series or the ghost of Warren Spahn."</blockquote></tt>
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<br />What's this I see? Seattle sports media quoting bloggers? Can this be true? I had to investigate.
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<br />'Twas a puzzling investigation as nowhere among the twenty-some-odd Mariner weblogs I've collected could I attribute the above quotations. I couldn't even find the "savior" sentiment that Levasque seems to be overwhelmed by. I mean, <a href="http://116mariners.blogspot.com/2004_01_01_116mariners_archive.html#107457470701432615">Kevin </a>let out a yelp of glee, but that's about the extent of any brazen joy from the announcement. The general consesus (or rare "unanimity among fans" Levasque mentions) among the Mariner weblogs is the usual doom-and-gloom cynicism--How will Bavasi figure a way to blow this chance?
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<br />No, these quotes were far too ecstatic to be the same Mariner writing I've grown accustomed to over the last several months. It wasn't until the daunting thought came to me to search through the 120+ comments on Mike Thompson's P-I blog <a href="http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/archives/001287.html">post</a>. And there was the answer. What Levasque calls "hailed across the Internet" is nothing more than a couple of handpicked comments left on the weblog of his own P-I. Thanks for doing your homework, John. Thanks for giving us the pulse of Mariner Nation straight from the educated commentary and analysis.
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<br />I guess it's a small step towards something.
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<br /><strong><em>UPDATE:</em></strong>
<br />A translated transcript of Sasaki's press conference appears on <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1713371">ESPN</a>:
<br /><tt><blockquote>There's a part of me that wants to go back and prove my true worth, but I found something more important.... Knowing that a baseball career doesn't last too long for anyone, I wasn't so sure it was the right thing to do to give up seeing my children grow. I'm a father and I simply want to be able to think what's best for my own kids.... I want to say I'm sorry I couldn't become a world champion in front of [the fans of Seattle]. They've all been warm and friendly, including the old women at the supermarket and the old men who lived in my neighborhood.</blockquote></tt>
<br />Best of luck to you, Kaz.
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<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074478760953663022004-01-19T09:19:00.000-05:002004-01-19T13:55:47.186-05:00<h2>Ghosts of baseball past</h2>
<br />So I was digging around this weekend, looking for quotes to inspire my grad school application essay. This, from G.K. Chesterton's <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0898705525/marinersmusin-20/002-0377224-2288848?creative=125581&camp=2321&link_code=as1">Orthodoxy</a></em>, leapt out at me:
<br /><tt><blockquote>"It is quite easy to see why a legend is treated, and ought to be treated, more respectfully than a book of history. The legend is generally made by the majority of people in the village, who are sane. The book is generally written by the one man in the village who is mad."</blockquote></tt>
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<br />While it didn't serve my essay at all, it provided the perfect summation of the book I just finished. I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a baseball book I had more fun reading than Lawrence Ritter's <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0688112730/marinersmusin-20/002-0377224-2288848?creative=125581&camp=2321&link_code=as1">The Glory of Their Times</a></em>.
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<br />Inspired by the death of Ty Cobb in1961, Ritter set out on a cross-country journey to record the stories of as many of Cobb's contemporary ballplayers as he could find. Each chapter represents an interview, where in nearly every case Ritter found a verbose raconteur eager to reminisce about the glory days of their youth long gone. All Ritter did was start the tape recorder and then transcribe his interviews. The book becomes then a first person oral history of baseball from the turn of the last century to the emergence of Babe Ruth and the long-ball era.
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<br />Sure, there are plenty of in-my-day-we-walked-uphill-in-the-snow-both-ways comments, but that's not the point. A co-worker once asked me why I preferred baseball to those other sports. The first thing I tought of was this--the rich history, the timeless tradition, the deep mythology that is baseball. One might deconstruct the details of these stories as warped by 50 years of memory, but Ritter himself admits in his preface that he poured over other primary sources and found the descriptions nearly identical to the accounts told him, and in the rare case of embellishment, he allowed the generosity of creative liscense. The tales are not to be taken with a grain of salt, but rather a wink and a smile.
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<br />It's a world, a culture, a sport so familiar, yet so foreign. There's <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/marquru01.shtml">Rube Marquard</a>, Wee <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leachto01.shtml">Tommy Leach </a>and Wahoo <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/crawfsa01.shtml">Sam Crawford</a>. There's <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/snodgfr01.shtml">Fred Snodgrass</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hoopeha01.shtml">Harry Hooper </a>and Smokey <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/woodjo02.shtml">Joe Wood</a>. There's <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/meyerch01.shtml">Chief Meyers</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/o'doule01.shtml">Lefty O'Doul </a>and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wanerpa01.shtml">Paul Waner</a>. It's a time of colorful nicknames. If you're left handed, then you're Lefty. If you're from a rural hicktown, you're Rube. If you're Native American, you're Chief. (Which makes me wonder how that moniker came to be applied to Freddy Garcia. He's neither Native American, nor is he known exactly for his leadership skills.)
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<br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesda01.shtml">Davy Jones </a>relates the time teammate <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schaege01.shtml">Germany Schaefer </a>indeed stole first base. Another time Schaefer entered the game as a pinch hitter with his team down by a run. Before entering the batter's box, Schaefer addressed the crowd:
<br /><tt><blockquote>"Ladies and gentlemen," he announced, "you are now looking at Herman Schaefer, better known as Herman the Great, acknowledged by one and all to be the greatest pinch hitter in the world. I am now going to hit the ball into the left field bleachers. Thank you."</blockquote></tt>
<br />The second pitch he smacked over the left field bleachers. He stood at homeplate until the ball cleared the fence. Then he sprinted, sliding into each base: "Schaefer leads at the quarter," into first. "Schaefer leads at the half," into second. Once home, he brushed himself off, took off his cap and again addressed the grandstand: "Ladies and gentlemen, I thank you for your kind attention."
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<br />Harry Hooper remembers the rookie <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ruthba01.shtml">Babe Ruth </a>in 1914:
<br /><blockquote><tt>You probably remember him with that big belly he got later on. But that wasn't there in 1914. George was six foot two and weighed 198 pounds, all of it muscle. He had a slim waist, huge biceps, no self-discipline, and not much education--not so very different from a lot of other nineteen-year-old would-be ballplayers. Except for two things: he could eat more than anyone else, and he could hit a baeball further.
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<br />Lord, he ate too much. He'd stop along the road when we were traveling and order half a dozen hot dogs and as many bottles of sode pop, stuff them in, one after the other, give a few big belches, and then roar, "OK, boys, let's go." That would hold Babe for a couple of hours, and then he'd be at it again. A nineteen-year-old youngster, mind you!</tt></blockquote>
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<br />Nearly each of them boasts of the pleasure of playing with <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wadderu01.shtml">Rube Waddell</a>. Others like <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mathech01.shtml">Christy Mathewson</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wagneho01.shtml">Honus Wagner </a>and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/mcgrajo01.shtml">John McGraw </a>become larger-than-life caricatures. They all have a comment for the New York Giants' manager McGraw: "What a great man he was! The finest and grandest man I ever met. He loved his players and his players loved him," says Rube Marquard. "He was a great man, really a wonderful fellow, and a great manager to play for," remembers Fred Snodgrass. "It was really McGraw I didn't like. John J. McGraw. I just didn't enjoy playing for, him that's all," says <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/roushed01.shtml">Edd Roush</a>. "Now McGraw, he was a rough manager. Very hard to play for. I played for him from '28 to '32, when he retired, and I didn't like it," recalls <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/o'farbo01.shtml">Bob O'Farrell</a>.
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<br />I believe I'd be willing to take my chances with Mr. McGraw.
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<br />I could go on and on with these quotes.
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<br />Lefty O'Doul:
<br /><tt><blockquote>So that's it. It's been a lot of fun, beginning to end. As I told you, I played in my first professional ball game with Des Moines in the Western League in 1917. I was twenty years old then. I played in my last game forty years later, Vancouver in the Pacific Coast League, 1956. Was fifty-nine then. I was the manager and put myself in to pinch-hit. Mostly a gag, you know. But I hit a ball between the outfielders and staggered all the way around to third.
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<br />A triple. Fifty-nine years old. How about that? Right there--forty years too late--I learned the secret of successful hitting. It consists of two things. The first is clean living, and the second is to bat against a pitcher who's laughing so hard he can hardly throw the ball.</blockquote></tt>
<br />And perhaps Bob O'Farrell says it best:
<br /><blockquote><tt>I certainly enjoyed those years, though. I did get a little discouraged at times, but I guess you do in any job. Of course, when you play every day it gets to be sort of like work. But, somehow, way down deep, it's still play. Just like the umpire says: "Play Ball!" It <em>is</em>. It's <em>play</em>.</tt></blockquote>
<br />Indeed. Baseball is play.
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<br />So while we eagerly wait for that next pulse-quickening exclamation--"Play Ball!"--find yourself a copy of <em>The Glory of Their Times</em>.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074262218936988262004-01-16T09:10:00.000-05:002004-01-18T10:41:20.093-05:00<h2>The force is strong with this one</h2>
<br /><img src="http://www.padawansguide.com/gifs/yoda.jpg"> <img src="http://www.users.bigpond.com/goreds/PLAYRPIC/csnellg2.jpg">
<br />
<br />The most recent Google hits returning Mariners Musings:
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<br />mariners musings - I guess that's an obvious one.
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<br />"glove bench" - As this came via Google Poland, I'm really scratching my head as to what they were looking for. I hope they found it. Makes me wonder how the Polish Mariner community is holding up through the winter of Bill Bavasi.
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<br />"lance nix" texas - Where's an editor when I need one? That should have been <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7176">Laynce Nix</a>. But I'm sure he gets that all the time.
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<br />"billy beane" - Mr. Beane is one popular guy. If I combed through each and every google search and created a top ten list, I'm pretty sure "billy beane" (all lower case, mind you) would outnumber numbers 2 through 10.
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<br />One that particularly caught my interest this past week, though, was "<a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=%22chris+snelling%22+yoda&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&start=0&sa=N">'chris snelling' yoda</a>." This I had to investigate. Just what ties these two colorful characters together to the extent that would inspire internet searching?
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<br />What my detective work revealed is that the 22-year-old Snelling signs the name of the Jedi warrior beneath his own name when giving his autograph--at least that was the habit three years ago at the time of <a href="http://www.topprospectalert.com/interview/chrissnelling.shtm">this interview </a>with Paul Gierhart of <a href="http://www.topprospectalert.com/">Top Prospect Alert.</a> As Snelling explains,
<br /><tt><blockquote>"The Yoda thing. Well, many people have asked me this and it's hard to explain to a person why I write the name of an ugly looking green guy in my autograph. I do it not because of what he looks like. It started back when I watched Star Wars every day for about 5 years, all through my high school years. I do it because it's my focal point. To me a focal point is something to get your mind off worrying about your technique. When I'm feeling down or unconfident I go back to what he said to Luke Skywalker on planet Endor just when Luke is about to fight Darth Vader in 'Return of the Jedi'. He says, 'Try not, do or do not, there is no try'. It's a mental thing and it works for me. People say I'm immature for having it and believing it but bottom line is I'm twisted and it works for me."</blockquote></tt>
<br />Read the whole interview. It's priceless stuff.
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<br />My first reaction to this--Just how cool is this. I think I've found my new favorite Mariner.
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<br />My second reaction to this--Is the Australian version of Star Wars different from mine? Because, pardon my geekiness, but in my VHS copy the sage "Do or do not" line comes in Empire Strikes Back on the planet Dagobah prior to Luke's Freudian dual with the Vader that turns out to be himself. Awh, details, schmetails. I know who I'm rooting for in Spring Training. And it's not Raul Ibanez.
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<br />Snelling's affinity for the diminutive green one continued into last year's spring training. As <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/109078_mbok18.shtml">John Hickey </a>reported,
<br /><tt><blockquote>"There was a new addition to the Mariners clubhouse yesterday -- a 2 1/2-foot-tall figurine of Yoda from 'Star Wars.' It arrived after noon and resides in front of rookie outfielder Chris Snelling's locker. His nickname, not surprisingly, is 'Yoda.'
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<br />"'I've always wanted one of these,' Snelling said. 'I got it off eBay'" (P-I).</blockquote></tt>
<br />I have in my head a picture of some <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097815/maindetails">Jobu-like </a>shrine. I can only imagine what Boonie's smart remarks may have been. Maybe something along the lines of Yoda using the force to hit a curveball.
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<br />Speaking of Mariners' extracuricular activities, did you catch <a href="http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2509">Nathan Fox's notes </a>from the Hot Stove, Cool Music benefit in Boston? It's a Prospectus freebie, so help yourself. The image of Peter Gammons rocking out is arresting, but what most caught my eye was this bit...
<br /><tt><blockquote>8:35 p.m. Non-baseball bands took the first few slots, but now Sandfrog, fronted by Scott Spezio [sic] (he of the recent World Series champion Anaheim Angels, now of the Seattle Mariners) hits the stage. Spezio [sic] is a bona fide headbanging grunge rocker. This is possibly the most surreal experience of my entire life, at least until later, when Gammons plays. With the Paradise amps all set on '11,' Sandfrog doesn't sound half bad. Theo and Gammons, stageside, are smiling and apparently digging it. </blockquote></tt>
<br />Drowning in the sea of number crunching, I had nearly forgotten the M's now carry a "bona fide headbanging grunge rocker."
<br /><img src="http://www.sandfrog.com/images/pictures_03.jpg">
<br />That's Spiezio on the far left in the black shirt with the mic. I myself have yet to immerse myself in the <a href="http://www.sandfrog.com/">Sandfrog</a> experience. It appears they have a pair of songs to download off their official website, where they boast to be "one half hard rock, 29% grunge, and two-fifths metal." Apparently math isn't their strong suite. The <a href="http://uk.dir.yahoo.com/Entertainment/Music/Artists/wp_s.html">British Yahoo! Music Directory </a>describes the band "as modern Black Sabbath, power grunge, and even as a triad of metal, grunge, and prog rock."
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<br />Spiezio scored <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/features/featuregen.asp?pid=1838">#14 </a>on Rolling Stone's <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/features/featuregen.asp?pid=1821">50 Baseball Moments that Rock</a>, where he states, "We were all huge Alice in Chains and Soundgarden fans." He must be in heaven to find himself in Seattle.
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<br />I can't seem to find whether the band has recorded any albums, but if any music critics, serious or otherwise, out there have been to a show and want to share a review, I'd be more than happy to post it.
<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074185496417822712004-01-15T11:51:00.000-05:002004-01-17T09:17:51.246-05:00<h2>The worst Mariner seasons ever... again</h2>
<br />As promised, here's the continuation and finale of the 10 worst non-pitcher seasons in the 26 years of Seattle Mariner history. Again, the disclaimer: Reading discretion is advised. The following is not intended for small children, pregnant women, nor those suffering from heart conditions.
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<br /><strong>5. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bernhju01.shtml">Juan Bernhardt</a>, 1977.</strong>
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<br />Bernhardt was taken from the Yankees in the expansion draft by the fledgling Mariners. The 23-year-old didn't see any action in that first fateful game on <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B04060SEA1977.htm">April 6</a> against Frank Tanana. It wasn't until the fifth and final game of that opening series against the Angels that manager Darrell Johnson worked Bernhardt into the starting lineup as the designated hitter. Bernhardt responded by going 3 for 4 with a pair of singles, two runs scored and an RBI on the first ever home run hit by a Seattle Mariner. He was also hit by a pitch.
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<br />So if you're ever on Jeopardy and Alex Trebek gives the answer: "This Seattle Mariner hit the first home run in club history." The questions is... "Alex, who is Juan Bernhardt?" April 10, 1977. Fifth inning. Two out. Off Frank Tanana.
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<br />Bernhardt earned a start the next day and went 2 for 4. Thus, Johnson kept him in the starting lineup for a good part of the next month. He did post a very reasonable line for the month of April: 64 at bats, .313/.353/.547. But spring soon gave way to summer and Bernhardt wilted in the wretched Seattle heat. Or maybe it was the concrete claustrophobia of the Kingdome. He was as automatic an out as one can imagine through July and August, hitting .163/.163/.186 for that month of August, yet he still found a place in the starting lineup for the remainder of the season. It's not as if Darrell Johnson had any better options. This is the '77 Mariners we're talking about.
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<br />His final line for the year was .243/.259/.354. The free-swinging Dominican (pardon the redundancy) walked a ridiculous 5 times in 305 at bats while slugging 18 extra base hits. He also grounded into 9 double plays. All this translates to an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/bernhju01.shtml">EQA </a>of .218.
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<br />Defensively, he did see 21 games at third base (1 error) and 8 games at first (1 error). Given that small sample size, his defensive worth was 2 runs below average, and overall, Bernhardt was worth 0.2 wins below replacement. The M's lost as many games that year as any other American League team (98), but escaped the cellar by winning just one more than the Athletics.
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<br />Bernhardt never again saw regular playing time again and was finished with baseball after seeing just one at bat in the 1979 season at the age of 25.
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<br /><strong>4. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sojolu01.shtml">Luis Sojo</a>, 1996.</strong>
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<br />"Here's the pitch. Swing, and it's a ground ball, and it gets on by Snow. Down the right field line into the bullpen. Here comes Blowers. Here comes Tino. Here comes Joey. The throw to the plate is cut off. The relay by Langston gets by Allanson. Cora scores! Here comes Sojo! Everybody scores!!! Sojo comes in!!!"
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<br />That was 1995. Luis Sojo is immortalized in Mariner history in that one single at bat that finished off the Angels and sent the Mariners to their first ever playoff appearance. But that was 1995. This is 1996. And Luis Sojo turned back into a pumpkin.
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<br />Sojo was signed as a free agent prior to the '94 season. His time in Seattle was spent first as a backup for Felix Fermin, and then as a placeholder for a young upstart 19-year-old kid named <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml">Alex</a>. For the year in question, Sojo provided a glove off the bench backing up Alex at short, Joey Cora at second, and was one of several stopgaps at third. He was hitting .211/.244/.263 when the Mariners placed their franchise hero of less than a year earlier on waivers on August 22. He had 10 extra base hits and 10 walks in 247 at bats. Who needs a backup when you've got a 20-year-old kid playing short hitting .358 with 36 homers making $150,000 less than Sojo? Sojo's <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/sojolu01.shtml">EQA </a>for the Mariners that year was .155.
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<br />Furthermore, his defense far from justified his roster spot. He made 5 errors in 33 games at third, 2 errors in 27 games at second and one error in 19 games at short. He was worth just 4 runs above an average fielder. Overall, his worth was 0.6 wins below replacement. The Mariners fell just short of division-winner Texas, four and a half games back. Meanwhile, Sojo was claimed by the Yankees and became an emblematic part of that dynasty. He would go 3 for 5 in the World Series that year and 6 for 15 in those four World Series in six years for the Yanks.
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<br /><strong>3. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/castima01.shtml">Manny Castillo</a>, 1982.</strong>
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<br />In October of 1981, the Mariners initiated one of the silliest trades in franchise history. Over the passing of time, it has faded from memory, certainly in light of more recent gaffes in the late nineties that saw Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz and Mike Hampton blossom on other diamonds. Still, looking at the details twenty years later, this one's pretty goofy. In October of 1981, the Mariners acquired Manny Castillo from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for a player to be named later. Four months later, at the start of spring training 1982, the Mariners sent the Royals 25-year-old rookie Bud Black.
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<br />Black had seen but just an inning with the Mariners during the '81 season with the Mariners. He would go on to a respectable career putting up ERA+ of 89, 108, 130, 96, 133 and 127. Don't tell me the Mariners of the mid eighties couldn't have used a pitcher 25-30% better than the league average. Manny Castillo's legacy in Seattle, well, is probably enough to make Jeff Cirillo proud.
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<br />The 25-year-old Castillo manned the hot corner full-time and batted second for the '82 Mariners. He hit .257/.286/.336 with 22 walks and 33 extra base hits in 506 at bats. That's the fifth worst on-base percentage ever registered by a full-time player (500+ plate appearances) and the tenth worst slugging percentage in Mariner history. He erased himself from the basepaths 8 times in 10 total stolen base attempts, and killed another 11 baserunners while grounding into double plays. His <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/castima01.shtml">EQA </a>for the season was .223.
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<br />Whereas Jeff Cirillo in 2002 provided something with his glove, Castillo did not in 1982. He committed 20 errors in 130 games at third and one error in 9 games at second. He was worth a whopping 17 runs below the average third baseman. Offensive and defensive ineptitude all taken into account, Castillo's worth was 0.6 wins below replacement. The Mariners finished dead last that year, losing 102 games--10 more than the next worst team.
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<br />And replace Castillo the Mariners did. They gave the starting third base job to Jamie Allen in 1983 and released Castillo during Spring Training 1984. Interestingly, in the sixth inning on June 26, 1983, Manny Castillo took the mound in then 12-3 runaway at the hands of the Blue Jays. Castillo pitched 2 and two thirds innings and gave up 7 runs on 3 homers, 3 walks a hit batter and a wild pitch. After that, Castillo was gone from baseball.
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<br /><strong>2. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/feldemi01.shtml">Mike Felder</a>, 1993.</strong>
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<br />Among the victims of Seattle's Curse of Left Field, Felder suffered it's effects the most. With longetivity considered, Mike Felder is the worst left fielder in Seattle history. Brought in as a free agent in the winter of '92, the 31-year-old brought with him a reputation of speed on the basepaths. He had just a bit of trouble getting to first, though. Though rumors may prove contrary, I believe his nickname "Tiny" was for his .211/.262/.269 batting line while with the Mariners. He walked 22 times in 342 at bats and clubbed 13 extra base hits--and 5 of those were triples. His "tiny" <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/feldemi01.shtml">EQA </a>was .194.
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<br />In that Bermuda Triangle of the Kingdome's left field, Felder fumbled 2 errors in 143 games. However, his defense was worth a run below an average outfielder. Overall, Felder was worth 0.7 wins below replacement for the '93 Mariners, who experienced a winning record for just the second time.
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<br />The following December, the Mariners packaged Felder with a 20-year-old Mike Hampton and sent them to Houston for yet another chapter in the sorry legacy of left field in Seattle--Eric Anthony.
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<br /><strong>1. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/stantle01.shtml">Leroy Stanton</a>, 1978.</strong>
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<br />Stanton is the third representative of the '78 team on this list (four if you count Bernhardt who also was on the roster that year). But Stanton put together the stinkiest season by a Mariner non-pitcher in their short history. Stanton was picked from the Angels in the expansion draft. He spent the '77 season in right field and was the team MVP with 27 homers. Opening Day the following season, Stanton found himself at designated hitter. Despite the fact he was just 31, Stanton's career was finished. Done with. Kaput.
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<br />In '78, Stanton hit /182/.265/.248 with a respectable 34 walks in 302 at bats, but a puny 14 extra base hits. After leading the team in homers the previous season, Stanton's power completely went out. The only thing that saves numbers like those is a really, really fancy glove in the middle of the diamond. Stanton was the designated hitter. That's bad. This specialized hitter managed only an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/stantle01.shtml">EQA </a>of .202. He did play 30 errorless games in the outfield, but his defense was worth a run below average. His overall worth to the team was 0.8 wins below replacement.
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<br />Stanton never stepped into the batter's box again, and the Mariners released him prior to the 1980 season.
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<br />One can only hope that Bill Bavasi doesn't coax him out of retirement.
<br />
<br />*This project was made possible by the good folks behind <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/">Baseball Library</a>, <a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/">Retrosheet</a>, Lee Sinins's <a href="http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/">Sabermetric Encyclopedia </a>and Clay Davenport's <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/">Translation cards </a>available at Baseball Prospectus.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074096658113590612004-01-14T11:10:00.000-05:002004-01-14T11:33:59.936-05:00<h2>The worst Mariner seasons ever</h2>
<br />It could always be worse. In my nightmares Bret Boone turns an ankle Opening Day and Ramon Santiago becomes the everyday second baseman... all season. In my nightmares Ichiro pulls a hamstring Opening Day and Quinton McCracken becomes the starting right fielder... all season. At least Bill Bavasi can't bring back these guys. These guys make up the ten worst offensive seasons ever by Mariners. Most of these guys were regulars, so that disqualifies Cirillo's 2003, and they have to be bad with the bat and the glove. That disqualifies Cirillo's '02. Offensive, indeed. The below is not intended for small children, pregnant women, nor those with a generally faint heart. Proceed with caution...
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<br /><strong>10. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cowenal01.shtml">Al Cowens</a>, 1983. </strong>
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<br />Once upon a time, Cowens had finished runner up in the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1977.shtml#ALmvp">MVP ballotting</a>. That was 1977 when he hit .312/.361/.525 and won a gold glove for the Royals. The Mariners purchased his contract in the spring of 1982 from the Tigers. He hit 20 homers that year, for just the second time in his career, but posted a brutal on-base percentage of .325. Thus, the Mariners signed him on for another year. The results are a bit frightening.
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<br />At the age of 31, Cowens only saw 356 at bats for the '83 M's, though that was the fourth highest total on that team. He split his time between right field and DH, putting together a bone-chilling batting line of .205/.255/.329. Imagine Jeff Cirillo without the bases on balls as the designated hitter. He walked 23 times and hit 28 extra base hits. His EQA was .217. He grounded into 13 double plays that year--just one off his career high, but in half as many at bats.
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<br />In the field, he made just two errors for the whole season. But he did just play 70 games in right field. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/cowenal01.shtml">Advanced fielding metrics credit him </a>with 2 fielding runs above the average right fielder. That's not hideously bad, per se, but it far from compensates for his out-producing bat. He was worth 0.5 win above replacement for a team that lost 100 games for the third time in seven years.
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<br />So what do the Mariners do with him? They keep him on for another two years before finally releasing him following the '85 season. But wait, they re-signed Cowens for 1986 before finally dumping him for good in mid season, and Cowens was gone from baseball for good. Sadly, he passed away in 2002 at the age of 50 of a heart attack.
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<br /><strong>9. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mendoma01.shtml">Mario Mendoza</a>, 1979. </strong>
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<br />Of course, <a href="http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/features/experts/08_02_00.stm#1">that Mendoza</a>. Mark your calendars, folks. This is history. December 5, 1978--the infant Seattle Mariners trade Enrique Romo, Rick Jones and Todd McMillan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Odell Jones, Rafael Vasquez and... wait for it... 28-year-old shortstop Mario Mendoza, the inspiration of the infamous Mendoza Line standard (.200) for batting averages. To call Mendoza even a feather-weight hitter is generous. He had never seen regular playing time in Pittsburgh and never posted an OPS north of .580, so naturally, the Mariners make him the everyday shortstop.
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<br />What follows is B-horror movie material. Hide the children, please. Mendoza hit .198/.216/.249, the lowest on-base percentage from a player with at least 350 at bats since since Teddy Roosevelt stepped out of office. That's 70 years of baseball play, counting on my trusty abacus, and it hasn't been touched in the 25 years since. He walked 9 times, struck out 62 times and hammered, I mean tinkered, 13 extra base hits in 373 at bats. All that translates to an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/mendoma01.shtml">EQA</a> of .164.
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<br />And you can't say his defense justified his roster spot. In 148 games, he commited 20 errors and was worth 3 fielding runs above the leage average shortstop. Overall, he was worth 0.2 wins above replacement. Ironically, that 95-loss season was the Mariners best season in their short three-year history.
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<br />Needless to say, his role was somewhat diminished the next season and the M's dumped him on the Rangers in the winter of 1980, exactly 2 years and a week to the day they had acquired him. Mendoza's only season as a regular was that fateful 1979.
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<br /><strong>8. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/preslji01.shtml">Jim Presley</a>, 1988.</strong>
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<br />Drafted and developed by the Mariners, Presley occupied the starting third base job beginning in 1984 and held onto it until 1989. From 1985 to 1987, Presley averaged 26 home runs and 93 RBIs. The wheels fell off the cart of Presley's, however, at the age of 27, the year one might have predicted his peak.
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<br />That <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/1988.shtml">1988 Mariner </a>lineup is an odd bunch. There are two professional hitters who posted on-base percentages over .400 (Alvin Davis and Ken Phelps) but five below .300 with Presley being the greatest out-maker of them all. He hit .230/.280/.355 with 36 walks and 40 extra base hits in his 544 at bats. He also grounded into a team-leading 14 double plays. This gives him an <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/preslji01.shtml">EQA</a> of .232.
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<br />At the hot corner, Presley made 22 errors in 146 games. His defense was worth 16 runs below a league average third baseman. Thus, his overall worth was 0.2 wins above replacement for this Mariner squad that finished in the cellar, 35 and a half games behind the <a href="http://www.puresportsart.com/warehouse/bashbrothers88cos.htm">Bash Brothers</a>.
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<br />In 1989, the Mariners introduced a new <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martied01.shtml">third basemen </a>who would hit .240/.314/.304 in his first serious trial. Astonishing, no, but a diamond in the rough. Presley would lose his job to this 26-year-old rookie with a funny mustache and the name Edgar. If only he'd lost it a year earlier.
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<br /><strong>7. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/meyerda01.shtml">Dan Meyer</a>, 1978. </strong>
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<br />Meyer had been a batting champ in the minor leagues, but wasn't given a full-time job in the majors until the Mariners picked him in the expansion draft. He was the original Mariner first baseman. I can't imagine there's many people in the world that would get very excited about being an Original Mariner. He had led the team in hits and runs batted in that inaugural season, but his follow-up was like a bad movie sequel.
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<br />At the age of 27, Meyer put together a season of .227/.264/.327 with 24 walks and 17 extra base hits in 444 at bats, one of the all time worst offensive seasons by a first basemen since integration. And yet for some reason, he led the team with six intentional walks--a quarter of his walks were intentional. His <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/meyerda01.shtml">EQA</a> was .225.
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<br />Defensively, Meyer committed 13 errors in 121 games at first base, and he was worth 4 runs below the league average. Overall, he was worth 0.2 wins above replacement, as the Mariners lost 104 games, finishing in last place by 35 games.
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<br /><strong>6. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/milbola01.shtml">Larry Milbourne</a>, 1978.</strong>
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<br />This was just a bad year for baseball in Seattle. Milbourne is one non-regular to make the list (I think). He was that bad. The M's had acquired him prior to the '77 season for 24-year-old, untried rookie Roy Thomas, who would later come back to Seattle. He was hardly adequate as a utility man that first season. His offensive numbers actual improved in 1978, but negligibly. However, his defense became a liability.
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<br />You might want to cover your eyes for this. At the age of 27, Milbourne hit .226/.254/.295 with 9 walks and 10 extra base hits. And you thought new Mariner <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6933">Ramon Santiago </a>was offensively challenged. He stole just 5 bases in 12 tries and also grounded into 7 double plays in his pinch-hitting role. More like pinch-out-maker. He may have invented several other ways to make outs that unfortunately were not recorded for posterity's sake. His <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/milbola01.shtml">EQA </a>that year was .202.
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<br />Whereas his defense had been ever so slightly a positive in '77, it was ever so slightly a negative in '78. He saw 32 games at third base with one error, 23 games at shortstop with 4 errors and 15 games at second base with 4 errors. Why anyone would give a guy with a sub-.300 slugging percentage even 10 games at designated hitter is one of the great mysteries of the universe. He was worth 2 runs below an average fielder, and overall, 0.1 wins above replacement.
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<br />By some chance of fate, good karma, divine blessing or blind luck, Milbourne wound up on the World Series-bound Yankees just two years later. He hit 2 doubles in that series, one of them the only extra-base hit in the Game 5 Yankee victory. Go figure. The guy hit only 71 doubles his entire career of nearly 1000 games, but he hits 2 in that 6-game World Series, going .327/.375/.385 with 4 RBI in the '81 post season. How's that for Mr. Clutch.
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<br />To be continued... (I promise)...
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<br />Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1074022102997644212004-01-13T14:28:00.000-05:002004-01-13T14:41:14.700-05:00<h2>The longest winter</h2>
<br />Today is just one of those days. What to write about? I can't get the image of the <a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0004051/">Brian Cox </a>character from <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0268126/">Adaptation </a>out of my head:
<br /><tt><blockquote>"Nothing happens in baseball? Are you out of your f*cking mind? Free agents are signed every day. There's genocide, war, corruption. Every f*cking day, somewhere in the world, somebody sacrifices his life to save someone else. Every f*cking day, someone, somewhere makes a conscious decision to destroy someone else! People find love, people lose it! For Christ's sake, a child watches her mother beaten to death on the steps of a church. Someone gets traded. Somebody else betrays his best friend for a woman. If you can't find that stuff in baseball, then you, my friend, don't know crap about baseball! And why the F*CK are you wasting my two precious minutes with your blog? I don't have any use for it. I don't have any bloody use for it!"</blockquote></tt>
<br />Maybe I watch too many movies. Then again, it is January 13, the Mariners roster is more or less set, and pitchers and catchers don't report for another 38 days. This has been the longest winter. I so often crave to put together some well-crafted essay, at least something with a vague resemblance of a cohesive journal entry. Instead, I more often than not wind up with a random smattering of hurried trivial factoids. Creativity was so much easier when there were three Mariner weblogs and a game everyday. I'm such an insecure whiner...
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<br />Have you taken a gander at <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6549">Joel Pineiro's splits </a>from last year? That's a 3.35 ERA at Safeco Field and 4.31 on the road. In fact, Joel's road ERA has been creeping upwards each year since his debut: 3.78 in 2001 (33 innings), 3.95 in 2002 (96 innings) and 4.31 last year (96 innings). Over the past year and a half, his ERA is a full run and a half better at home than on the road. Makes me wonder if it isn't Pineiro, rather than Rafael Soriano, who should be dangled as trade bait. And on the subject, it makes me wonder, with the extreme nature of Safeco Field couldn't Management manipulate statistics to overvalue some players, i.e., Pineiro? Oh, but that would be conniving, deceptive and would tarnish the boy scout image of the organization. Oh well.
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<br />I had thought about taking the 40-man roster and whittling it down to a realistic 25-man roster, which seems to me the biggest challenge for the next two and a half months. But really, I can't improve upon Jason's <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/features/bigboard.htm">Big Board</a>. Jason, I thank you for that invaluable Mariner resource. It looks like Bavasi may need to go shopping for some more of that "inventory" he was talking about over the weekend to restock the Tacoma roster.
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<br />Jason picks a bench of Davis, Hansen, Bloomquist, Santiago and McCracken, which will strike fear only into the hearts of Mariner fans. I can just imagine it now: 9th inning. Mariners down by a run. Troy Percival on the mound. Rich Aurilia comes to the plate. No wait! Melvin goes to his bench. Here comes... Quinton McCracken. *sigh* On the bright side, Gonzalez and Ugueto don't make the cut. Neither does Pat Borders, but I don't see him anywhere on the chart.
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<br />I'm not too concerned about the bullpen, questions about Kaz Sasaki, aside. I wonder what's become of the Japanese team interested in him? I like the tandem of Soriano, Mateo and Guardado setting him up, though. I would prefer Soriano start the season in the rotation, but along with Mateo and Jarvis (if you really want to count Jarvis), the Mariners now have three starters for insurance should one or more in the rotation break down. Gil Meche nearly pitched 200 innings. Joel Pineiro pitched more innings than he ever had before. Ryan Franklin, at the age of 30, pitched as many innings as he had the rest of his entire major league career. The breakdown is inevitable. Having Rafael Soriano to be the first to step in will prove invaluable.
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<br />And I wonder, too... <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_11_ussmariner_archive.html#107394209272751252">Dave </a>mentions the cascading effect of losing Cameron. Have you ever played <a href="http://www.hasbro.com/jenga/">Jenga</a>? Cameron makes me think of that piece on the very bottom you think you can pull out. You finally get up the guts to try it and the whole tower crashes down. Yeah, Cammie's defense is like that. So, will the Angels suffer a similar defensive conundrum in jostling their outfield and/or moving Darin Erstad? Erstad was an above average centerfielder in 2002. In 2003, with Erstad missing much of the season, the Angels had one of the leagues most extreme flyball pitching staffs, and the ERA of their starters--for the most part, the very same group--ballooned from 4.00 to 4.90. The whole staff went from 3.69 to 4.28. In Colon, they've signed another flyball pitcher whose strikeout rate is not as impressive as it once was. Disaster in the making? Probably not, but something to think about.
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<br />I also wonder, with as old, old school as the Mariners are these days, how the mantra "pitching and defense win championships" is curiously missing from the rhetoric of both Management and Media.
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<br />Last week, Kevin Baxter of <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/040108cubans.html">Baseball America </a>reported the status of Cuban defectors Maels Rodriguez and Yobel Duenas. Rodriguez is a 24-year-old right handed pitcher, while Duenas is a 31-year-old second baseman and outfielder. According to the article:
<br /><tt><blockquote>Rodriguez holds the single-season Cuban strikeout record, having fanned 263 in 178-1/3 innings three years ago and he is the only pitcher in post-revolution Cuba history to throw a perfect game. [Agent Henry] Vilar said a half-dozen teams, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Mariners and Rangers, are interested in him. Vilar has used the four-year $32 million contract the Yankees gave fellow defector Jose Contreras in December 2002 as a measuring stick for Rodriguez' asking price.</blockquote></tt>
<br />Excellent. Just what the Mariners need. Yet another right-handed pitcher. And of the Cuban, four-year, $32 million variety. Great. Just great. That'd be a wonderful signing, Bill. What are you waiting for. (Aaacck!)Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5024272.post-1073920197172707512004-01-12T10:09:00.000-05:002004-01-12T10:26:48.310-05:00<h2>Can we start playing the games already?</h2>
<br />I suppose today is the first day of the rest of your baseball rooting life, that is, if it so happens that your team is <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=ana">the one with a monkey for a mascot</a>. <a href="http://www.livejournal.com/users/halofan/16158.html">Halofan </a>is buying drinks. I could use a particularly stiff drink.
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<br />I was trying to think of the last marquee free agent Anaheim signed (other than Bartolo Colon). That Bavasi-induced plague Mo Vaughn?
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<br />I realize Bob Finnigan's Sunday <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2001834173_mari11.html">column </a>has already been fisked and shredded elsewhere, but one comment in partcular stands out to me:
<br /><tt><blockquote>"The anticipated loss of Mike Cameron required someone to play center field. Melvin's call was to have Ichiro remain in right, and how could anyone argue with the manager's extreme reluctance 'to move the best right fielder in the league, if not in the game'" (Times).</blockquote></tt>
<br />Okay, I'll dare to argue and break the news to Bob that Ichiro is not even the best outfielder in the division anymore.
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<br />My gut is trying to tell me that the Angels have just wrapped up the division right here. However, me and my gut, we go way back, and my gut just ain't that trustworthy. Despite the cloud of gloom I'm so willing to succumb to, I have to side with both <a href="http://ussmariner.blogspot.com/2004_01_11_ussmariner_archive.html#107389650562318146">Derek </a>and <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1705855">Rob </a>here.
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<br />Just look at the standings from last year. The Angels finished 19 games out of first. Nineteen games! It takes an extraordinary stretch of the imagination to say that the combined losses in Oakland of Tejada and Foulke with the additions in Anaheim of Colon and Guerrero eliminate that 19-game margin. Furthermore, Derek reminds us that the Mariners were the unluckiest team in the AL last year (unlucky, or victimized by a rookie manager, or maybe something else we don't yet know). The Mariners, according to their runs scored and allowed, were the best team in baseball last year, and it's not like they've lost Edgar Martinez.
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<br />The M's run differential last year predicted that they should have won 99 games. To say they are now no better than an 85-win team means that Bavasi's ceaseless tinkering has cost the team 14 games in the standings. Now, that's just a bit overdramatic.
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<br />Those days I've been comparing the wins-above-replacement-player, I've been going about it all wrong. The 2004 M's would be an 87-win team only <em>if</em> they were unlucky by 6 games again. Eliminate luck from the equation all together, and Bavasi's blundering moves total up to the Mariners bad luck of '03: They're still a 93-win team. And that, my friends, is still a pennant-contending team.
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<br />And have you seen the characters who may be filling out the Angels bench? Halofan speculates Wil Nieves (.243 EQA in Triple-A last year, .202 adjusted for major leagues), Rob Quinlan (.276 EQA in Triple-A, .229 adjusted for major leagues), Jeff DaVanon (.287 EQA), Chone Figgins (.258 EQA in 248 AB) and Alfredo Amezaga (.295 EQA in Triple-A, .245 adjusted). The Mariners may have the Bench of Doom resembling extras from Michael Jackson's Thriller video, but these guys aren't far behind.
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<br />Am I saying the Angels are still a third-place team? Nope. Am I saying the Mariners are going to win the pennant? Nope. Am I saying Bavasi has improved the Mariners? Not even close. What I am saying is that the evidence would show that 2004 in the American League West will be the three-team race that we were promised last year. While signing Vlad doesn't bring the Angels the pennant on a silver platter, it does make the division exponentially more interesting. And as Derek notes, if Lady Luck were to smile ever so subtly on the Mariners this year, the odds are not quite so bad.
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<br />Oh, and am I the only one who will be feeling a bit of guilty glee that Jeff Nelson will be throwing his increasingly hittable frisbees in <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1706229">Texas blue</a>? According to Ranger GM John Hart, "He has pitched in the seventh and eighth inning for a number of years, and he's been outstanding." Riiight. Outstanding at allowing inherited runners to score. Welcome back to the West, Nellie.
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<br />And lastly, over the weekend, Carlos Lugo of Baseball Prospectus gave a <a href="http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2505">wrap-up </a>of the Winter Dominican League (it is a premium article, and I whole-heartedly endorse a Baseball Prospectus subscription). His choice for best pitcher in the league? Hot rumormongering subject <a href="http://www.lidom.com/?id=jugador&Jugador_Id=349">Rafael Soriano </a>who went 1-1 in 7 starts with an infintismally microscopic ERA of 0.21. According to Lugo, "The guy allowed just 19 hits and TWO extra-base hits in 42.1 innings pitched. It wasn't his teammates either, as he pitched in front of the league's worst defense according to defensive efficiency ratings. The Lions featured one of the worst offensive groups in the history of the league, scoring just 3.3 runs per game." Talk about bad luck.
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<br />If Bavasi trades him, and the Mariners don't receive Barry Bonds in return, I'm signing <a href="http://www.petitiononline.com/firebill/petition.html">the petition</a>.Peterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09625761329517879665noreply@blogger.com