Mariners Musings

2004-02-15T15:20:00.000-05:00

All aboard the A-B train!

So, while the Expos aren't moving anywhere anytime soon, Mariners Musings is relocating to a new URL address:

http://www.all-baseball.com/marinermusings/

In the words of culinary wonderbody Emeril, we're taking it up a notch, and I'm downright giddy and damn proud to announce that Mariners Musings is joining the ranks of All-Baseball.com. You may already be familiar with The Cub Reporter and The Transaction Guy by Christian Ruzich, Bronx Banter by Alex Belth, Mike's Baseball Rants by Mike Carminiti and The Will Carroll (and TwinFanDan) Weblog. It's also where you'll now find Dodger Thoughts by Jon Weisman, Wait Til Next Year by Bryan Smith and Baysball.

Two heads are better than one, but with about eight or nine, we just may be able to take over the world. There may be some kinks to be ironed out over the next week or so, but we're all very excited and have some very big plans to deliver the very best, creative and insightful baseball writing you can find in one place on the web.

Many, many thanks go out to Christian Ruzich and Mark McClusky for all of their long hours dreaming, organizing and handling all the technical details.

A pair of new features worth pointing out: You can now search Mariner Musings. Go ahead, try it. "Ron Villone." You can find some goofy things I had to say last summer. Also, each post can now be inidividually referenced and linked by clicking on the time stamp at the end of the post.

Beginning Monday all new content will be found exclusively at the new site. In the meantime, feel free to update your bookmarks and links at your convenience.

And on the topic of Alex getting fitted for his pinstripes, all I can do is channel the spirit of Dignan and echo, "This is unacceptable! This I do not forgive!"

2004-02-13T11:47:00.000-05:00

Underneath trivial particulars

I once knew a guy who kept a box of Trivial Pursuit cards in his bathroom. He told us he'd sit there on the john memorizing all the cards. Then, when it came time for the neighborhood Trivial Pursuit game (an odd, little neighborhood if you ask me), he'd collect all his pieces of the pie and clean house as he already knew all of the answers.

So here on this mid-February day, I offer this public service to give the answers to all of those most crucial of questions concerning the Mariners, like who uncorked the most wild pitches in a season (Matt Young, 16, 1990). Now you too can enter into the nearest barroom "discussion" with the full confidence that you are right, that you know more about the Mariners, and that they are wrong and are, at worst, closet Yankee fan spies.

Here we go. We'll start with some easy ones.

Who hit the most home runs in a season?

If you said Ken Griffey, Jr. in 1997, give yourself a gold star. If you said Ken Griffey, Jr. in 1998, you get a gold star, too. He hit 56 in both seasons.

What pitcher stuck out the most batters?

If you considered anyone other than Randy Johnson, then your Mariner fan club membership has just been revoked. Among the top 10 seasons, six of them belong to the Big Unit. His best was 1993 when he sent 308 baffled hitters straight back to the dugout.

Who has had the highest batting average from someone who could qualify for the batting title?

If you think it's Edgar Martinez's .356 in 1995, nice try and thank you for playing. Alex Rodriguez won himself a batting title in 1996 with .358.

What pitcher has posted the best earned run average who could qualify for the ERA title? I'll even offer a hint: It rhymes with Jandy Rohnson.

Bingo. Randy Johnson is the only qualifying Mariner starter to post an ERA below 3.00, and he did it twice. His best was 1997 with 2.28. That top ten is populated by Johnson four times, four Safeco Field-blessed seasons, Erik Hanson in '90 and Matt Young in '83.

Now for some questions for your more serious stat-head conversation:

What hitter posted the highest on-base percentage (has to qualify for the batting title)? Would it help to offer that this individual has seven of the Mariners ten best seasons in this category?

This would be Edgar with .479 in 1995. Eight times Edgar has gotten on base in at least 42% of his plate appearances. Only Alex Rodriguez and Alvin Davis have done that even once while in Seattle.

What pitcher stifled offenses with the fewest baserunners per inning (WHIP) while qualifying for the ERA title?

Randy Johnson in 1995 with 1.07.

And how about slugging percentage?

That would be Junior with .674. All hail the power of the Kingdome. Just two Mariners have posted SLGs above .500 in the three and a half seasons at Safeco: Bret Boone in '01 and '03 and Edgar in '01. That's partly the difference in roster philosophy between homer-happy Woody Woodward and anti-slugger-superstar Pat Gillick and partly park effects.

What pitcher put together the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio?

Qualifying only starters (min. 162 innings), that's again Johnson in 1995 with 4.52 strikeouts for every base on balls. Qualifying the specialty, flame-throwing relievers (min. 40 innings), that's Arthur Rhodes in 2001 with 6.92. By the way, Rafael Soriano's 2003 ranks 3rd on the list with 5.67 and Julio Mateo's 2003 5th with 5.46. Talk about control freaks.

Now, here's the questions that separate the men from the boys (or the women from the girls, depending on your gender). These are the really critical ones that will help you discern friend from foe when you find yourself deep behind enemy lines. These are the ones that really mean something.

What Mariner hitter has been hit with the most pitches?

For the majority of his Seattle career, Dave Valle wore the number 10 on his back. Turns out in 1993 that "0" was actually a target as Valle led the major leagues 17 free passes from getting plunked. The next closest in Seattle history was Phil Bradley in 1985 with 12.

What Mariner pitcher drilled the most batters?

This is Randy Johnson during his Wild-Thing-era. And ten years ago, he wasn't pitching odor-eating dodgeballs. In 1993, Johnson near mortally wounded 18 hitters. This was also the same season as the classic John Kruk at bat in the All-Star game.

What Mariner has been caught stealing the most times in a season?

The answer is everyone's favorite ex-Mariner Baseball Tonight correspondent Harold Reynolds. After leading the league with 60 stolen bases in 1987 (with an excellent 75% success rate), Reynolds was caught a league leading 29 times the next year while only stealing 35 bases, which makes for an unproductive 55% rate. It's the sixth highest caught stealing total in all of baseball since integration.

What pitcher committed the most balks?

Curiously, eight of the top ten occurred in 1988. Anyone know if there was a rule change, sudden enforcement, something in the Puget Sound water or maybe Dick Williams and Jim Snyder plain didn't care? In any event, the leader is Rod Scurry with 11. Steve Trout and Jerry Reed both had 7. Gene Walter and Mike Jackson both had 6. Four of those five were relievers. And this was all in 1988. The Year of the Balk.

What Mariner grounded into the most double plays?

Not only did Jim Presley create in out in 78% of his at bats, he doubled the fun for the defense grounding into a double play 29 times in his utterly miserable and in every way forgettable 1985 season.

What pitcher served up the most home runs?

Loook no further than Scott Bankhead, who coughed up 35 home runs in 1987. Interestingly, if you choose to look closer, number two on the list is Ryan Franklin with 34 in 2003. In fact, two other pitchers from last year--Freddy Garcia and Gil Meche--place in the top ten, with 31 and 30, respectively. Go figure.

Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in an essay entitled "Experience" that "underneath the inharmonious and trivial particulars, is a musical perfection, the Ideal journeying always with us, the heaven without rent or seam."

Who did what the best in what year are all inharmonious and trivial particulars, especially as time marches on. And yet, it is such detailed minutia that makes the musical perfection of baseball. I'll bet good money that not only do they play baseball in heaven, but Saint Peter keeps score and counts everything. Even the little things that don't matter.

And if you yourself want to answer these questions as well as any other one who could imagine in this life or the next, such was who is the greatest hitter ever born in the state of Washington (John Olerud, and you can make a good case for Snohomish-native Earl Averill) or the greatest left-handed Canadien pitcher (John Hiller), then hurry yourself over to Lee Sinnins Sabermetric Encyclopedia. There is no better distraction for the February blues. At the very least, sign up for his free daily Around the Majors reports. It's indispensible stuff.

2004-02-12T11:01:00.000-05:00

Retrosheet is a big liar-head

I fell in love with Retrosheet a month or so ago. I'd known it was out there, but I'd never taken time to just get lost in it. I keep meaning to write up a piece on the worst pitchers of Mariners of history, but then I seriously get lost in Retrosheet and time's up. As The Hobbit to The Lord of the Rings to the Silmarillion so is ESPN to Baseball Reference to Retrosheet. It's the Old Testament of baseball: epic history, heroic battles, the source of why the world is, all in every last gory detail.

Then I discovered the site has a serious credibility gap. It's a big liar-head.

I think Keith Woolner would agree with me. Maybe not publicly. But that's the gist I get from his latest Aim For The Head column. Keith reminisces with his romantic New England fatalism on his first game in Fenway Park on his birthday back in 1979. As Keith recalls vividly, Joe Rudi hit a 3-run homer to win the game for the Angels.

That is, until Woolner recently looked up the game on Retrosheet and the Red Sox actually won that game. (That just sounds like a Red Sox fan, doesn't it, remembering your first game as a loss when it was really a win?)

Keith blames the wispy nostalgia of memory lane. Yeah, I saw Memento, too. Subjective, creative memory. Yada, yada, yada. I don't buy it. Joe Rudi runs Retrosheet, Keith.

My own experience is eerily similar. There's not a lot I remember about the first game I ever attended. I know it was 1987 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Thus, I was 8. It's all a blur now, but I remember the Tigers were in town, the Royals lost and Alan Trammell had a big game. Oh, and that Kauffman Stadium was like some big, green, beautiful sanctuary with effervescent fountains in right field and that enormous scoreboard in center in the shape of the Royal crown.

As I comb through the box scores, it has to be this one: August 16, 1987. Family summer vacation to KC. Tigers 10, Royals 6. Alan Trammell went 3 for 5 with a double and triple, two runs scored. Trammell sealed the game with an RBI-double that broke a 4-4 tie, as Detroit scored 5 runs in the 7th inning.

I'll have to run this by Mom, though, who was keeping score and surely still has that scorecard tucked away in some corner of a closet back home. But this isn't the game that concerns me.

What concerns me is my very first baseball memory--the first game I ever watched on TV. It would have been the spring of that same year. The universe of baseball opened itself to me through a single pack Topps baseball cards in the green wrapper that I iniquisitively and fatefully picked up at the corner QuikTrip. Believe me, it's nothing short of Providence that an 8-year-old should discover Major League Baseball in the quaint Midwestern town of Sand Springs, OK.

I decided, all by myself (with perhaps a nudge from Providence himself), that I would watch a ballgame. So, with my entire baseball card collection spread out before me--all 15 of them--I sat down on a Saturday afternoon and watched the Game of the Week on NBC with Vin Scully and Joe Garagiola. Eerily similar to Woolner's baseball initiation, I witnessed the Boston Red Sox versus the California Angels. The memory permanently stamped in my head, so crystal-clear, like it happened just yesterday, is that of Jack Howell hitting a pinch-hit, broken-bat home run to win the game for the Angels and Vin Scully going bananas over this game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home run. As Scully so poetically intoned, those don't happen everyday.

So several weeks ago, for some reason these events replaying in my mind, I set out into the vastness of Retrosheet to re-discover this foundational moment of baseball-hood.

But guess what. According to Retrosheet--yep, you guessed it--that never happened. Not once. Not ever. No game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home runs.

Apparently, the Angels hosted the Red Sox over the weekend of May 1-3. On Saturday, the Angels emerged victorious, 4-2. Dick Scofield hit a home run. Jack Howell started in left and went 1 for 4. (Wow, Mark McLemore started at second in that game.)

Maybe it was the next weekend when the two teams again faced off, this time in Boston. Nope. The Angels clobbered the Sox 9-1 with home runs from Wally Joyner and Devon White and a complete game, 5-hitter by Willie Fraser. Jack Howell started and went 0 for 4.

The two teams later faced off again in July, but both of these series took place during the week, so it couldn't have been then. Thus, I'm left with the grim reality that game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home runs do not exist. It's like I'm in second grade again raising my hand when the teacher asked who believes that unicorns are real. I honestly believed Noah just forgot to get them on the ark. I'd still like to think so. But in second grade, Mrs. Hooper ruined that one for me. Now Retrosheet is telling me game-winning, pinch-hit, broken-bat home runs do not exist.

Now, I'm left with two roads:

1) My foundational childhood memories are a figment of my imagination. (This supposition is rather unsettling as that would also preclude that my ever being a Jedi Knight is at stake.)

2) Retrosheet is wrong. (This, for obvious reasons, is a much more comfortable way to go.)

For now, I'm going with the latter. Game-winning, pinch-hit, broken bat home runs really do exist, and Retrosheet is a big fat liar-head.

2004-02-11T11:02:00.000-05:00

Wanderings in statistical nihilism

There's a scene in that movie about the club you're not supposed to talk about where the narrator complains, "It's just, when you buy furniture, you tell yourself, 'That's it. That's the last sofa I'm gonna need. Whatever else happens, I've got that sofa problem handled.'"

I thought I had that platoon split thing handled. Then I remind myself it's freakin' February and I need to get a grip. Fifty-five more days until serenity.

Thomas Ayers over at BallparkAnalysis.com attempts to distill the essence of the Primer conversation in a column titled Myth of Lefty Mashers. He boils the argument down to two assertions: 1) To best predict how a right-handed batter will perform against left-handed pitching, don't look at his past performance against LHP. Rather, observe his performance against RHP and multiply by 1.09. 2) The converse is not true regarding left-handed batters against right-handed pitching.

The reasons for this probably stem from the fact that, since RHP are predominant at any level of baseball, it is all but impossible for a RHB to reach the major leagues without developing the ability to hit RHP to a degree acceptable in the major leagues. Players who simply cannot hit RHP get left behind at college or in minor league baseball at some point. However, LHB are in a different scenario, as it is quite conceivable that, because they face limited LHP, they could simply never develop the ability to hit LHP, but can still hit RHP. A RHB who can't hit RHP will never make the majors, but its very conceivable that LHB who can't hit LHP could make the majors, and it happens all the time. In other words, while Toronto fans can expect Vernon to hit LHP better next year, Minnesota fans shouldn't expect anything but sucking from Jacque Jones against southpaws.

I'll have to stew on this for awhile. The more I learn about baseball, the more I learn I don't know. I love it.

Now, with the Mariners bringing in yet another ex-Mariner lefty in Terry Mulholland, my question comes back to: Just how important are left-handers in the bullpen?

Conventional wisdom dictates they are necessary to neutralize the Carlos Delgados and Jason Giambis of the league, those Herculean left-handed sluggers that cause crusty, old baseball managers to soil themselves in the late innings of a close game. Sometimes I wonder just how much of the righty/lefty effect is psychological.

According to Michael Wolverton's Adjusted Runs Prevented, the five best bullpens last season were found in Los Angeles (96.4), Houston (87.0), Anaheim (66.1), Seattle (61.6) and Arizona (54.1).

The Dodgers used lefties in 91 of 472.2 relief innings, or 19%. Tom Martin saw the most action in 51 of those innings, Steve Colyer pitcher 19.2, Troy Brohawn 11.2, Victor Alvarez 5.2 and Scott Mullen. In the NL West, these are the poul souls fed to Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez and Todd Helton like Christians in the Coliseum.

The Astros utilized lefties in 148.1 of 581.1 relief innings, or 26%. The Astros had the rare privilege of sporting a left-handed closer in Billy Wagner, who pitched in 86 innings. Beyond Wagner, though, they had no true left-handed setup man. Mike Gallo saw 30 innings of action, Nat Bland 20.1 and Bruce Chen 12. In the NL Central, that crucial left-on-left matchup wasn't near as a factor where only Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles appear among five teams, and Giles was traded at the deadline.

The Angels used lefties in 42.1 of 503.1 relief innings, or 8%. Scott Schoeneweis pitched 38.2 innings and then was traded to the White Sox at the July deadline. Rich Rodriguez pitched in 3.2 innings. This in a division featuring Ichiro!, Erubiel Durazo, Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock and Rafael Palmeiro.

The Mariners used lefties in 56 of 414.2 relief innings, or 14%. Arthur Rhodes would be the lone representative with 54 innings if it were not for those two innings of Matt White we'd all love to erase from our memories. Whiles the M's didn't have to pitch to Ichiro!, as the Angels staff did, they did see Garrett Anderson.

The Diamondbacks used lefties in 170.1 of 462 relief innings, or 37%. Present Mariner Mike Myers was used in the LOOGY (lefty-one-out-guy) role seeing just 36.1 innings in 64 games while Stephen Randolph pitched in 60 innings in 50 games. Eddie Oropesa saw 38.2 innings, Chris Capuano 33 and Dennis Reyes 2.1. While seeing some of the same brutal lefty opposition as the Dodgers, they would have also faced Fred McGriff, Shawn Green and Jeromy Burnitz. But seriously, I wouldn't have been too concerned with anyone carrying a bat and wearing Dodger blue last season.

It would appear that the significance of the left-handed reliever varies from organization to organization. Among these five, little seems to connect them other than their dominance. One team used lefties more than one third of the time; another spent half the season and enters the next without one all together. One used a lefty closer and no setup man; another used just one setup man all season. In the Angels case, one could say that good pitchers, and not necessarily left-handed ones, dominate right-handed batters.

Steve over at the Wheelhouse provides the splits versus left-handed batters of the Mariners' key bullpen arms going into Spring Training. It leaves me scratching my head wondering why the M's have been so hellbent on acquiring every thirtysomething, retread, ex-Mariner lefty reliever when Hasegawa, Mateo and Soriano have been so dominant against lefties.

With two-thirds of their competition this year involving bats like Anderson, Chavez, Durazo, Blalock and Brad Fullmer, the Mariners really shouldn't be that concerned with stocking mediocre left-handed arms just for the heck of it.

So does it matter that Anaheim doesn't carry a single lefty for their bullpen going into spring training? Not if those right-handers are every bit as effective.

Then again, with the recent sabermetric buzz on platoon splits and Oakland stockpiling their bullpen almost exclusively with left-handers, one has to wonder what Beane, DePodesta and Co. know that they're not sharing.

2004-02-10T11:16:00.000-05:00

Heresy, statistics and other profound questions of the universe

A question has been ruminating in my brain the last week or so. You see, for the over a year now I've endured the pining of the Mariners for a second left-hander out of the bullpen. Yesterday, satisfying the suspense of all these long months, the Mariners signed lefty Ron Villone. (Doesn't that headline make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside on such a cold February day? Yes, the prodigal son returns, and I missed him so. Gag.)

But does the conventional wisdom that requires two left-handers in the bullpen really matter?

Then I read Rob Neyer's column about Eric Karros. Then his follow-up reply to email. Then the deluge of a Primer thread on the topic. And Jon Weisman trembles in his own crisis of faith. A part of me thinks Rob is just being contrary. It was through him, after all, some years ago that I first learned to think that this platoon stuff was important. A part of me cries, "Foul heresy!" I feel like I've been told that the earth is not really flat and not the center of the universe. My head hurts.

Here's the crux of the process for me:

Let me be very clear about this: Yes, there most certainly is a difference to hitting against righties and lefties. As a group, right-handed hitters fare roughly eight percent better against left-handed pitchers than they do against right-handed pitchers...

Why would this be? Here's one theory (not my own, by the way) ... Growing up, right-handed batters face mostly right-handed pitchers, and so they get used to them. When they reach the minor leagues, it's not easy to hit a curveball or slider thrown by a right-handed pitcher ... but at least they've seen those pitches before. But there are very few left-handed pitchers in Little League, and few even in high school. So when a left-handed hitter enters professional baseball, having already spent many years learning to hit, he will probably have faced very few left-handed pitchers. And very few good left-handed curveballs and sliders.

Makes perfect sense, and it fits precisely into my own limited baseball playing experience. I see no reason to believe that hitting a baseball against a right-handed person and a left-handed person are one and the same skill. They are two separate and distinct skills. My childhood included three years of organized Little League baseball. I saw but one left handed pitcher in one game. Freaked me out. Never seen anything like that arm angle and motion before. I struck out looking. Not that that was unusual for me, though. It's an extremely limited experience, but it's my experience. I'd love to ask someone with college or professional experience what theirs has been on the subject.

Here's what makes my brow furrow, however:

Now, here's the hard part ... All (or almost all) right-handed hitters innately have that 8-percent edge against left-handed pitching. No matter what a right-handed hitter did last year against left-handed pitching, or even over the last five years (or more), it's highly likely that he's innately 8 percent better against lefties than righties.

All? What first pops into my mind is a quote from the late paleantologist Stephen Jay Gould dealing with means and medians. I couldn't remember it exactly, only that Nate Silver used it in last year's Baseball Prospectus introducing his PECOTA system. With a little help from the leprachauns that shovel the coal into the seach engine of the interweb thingy, I found The Median Isn't the Message.

In short, at age 40 Gould was diagnosed with abdominal mesothelioma, a rare, terminal form of cancer that stamps its host with an eight-month expiration date. That's the average, according to statistics. Rather than succumb to the enivitability of the average, Gould understood that statistical averages simply do not exist in nature, and he lived another 20 years.

We still carry the historical baggage of a Platonic heritage that seeks sharp essences and definite boundaries. (Thus we hope to find an unambiguous "beginning of life" or "definition of death," although nature often comes to us as irreducible continua.) This Platonic heritage, with its emphasis in clear distinctions and separated immutable entities, leads us to view statistical measures of central tendency wrongly, indeed opposite to the appropriate interpretation in our actual world of variation, shadings, and continua. In short, we view means and medians as the hard "realities," and the variation that permits their calculation as a set of transient and imperfect measurements of this hidden essence. If the median is the reality and variation around the median just a device for its calculation, the "I will probably be dead in eight months" may pass as a reasonable interpretation.

But all evolutionary biologists know that variation itself is nature's only irreducible essence. Variation is the hard reality, not a set of imperfect measures for a central tendency. Means and medians are the abstractions. Therefore, I looked at the mesothelioma statistics quite differently - and not only because I am an optimist who tends to see the doughnut instead of the hole, but primarily because I know that variation itself is the reality. I had to place myself amidst the variation.

Can I really believe that all right-handed batters have an 8% advantage against left-handed pitchers than right-handed ones? I don't think I can. The only thing I can say with certainty is that if I take any particular hitter, he most certainly will not have an 8% advantage in any specific at bat. But if it were true, does 8% really matter?

Further, as Jon on his Dodger Thoughts comments that as he understands, "over time, the ratio between a right-handed batter's OPS against righty and lefty pitchers is consistently 1.09 to 1" (emphasis added).

But if I'm a General Manager piecing together a roster, I'm not interested in a batter's specific skills over time. I'm interested in what his skills are right now today and what they will be tomorrow. Eric Karros's split tendencies his rookie season are irrelevant to what he offers Oakland off the bench next season. Over the course of his career, Karros may (or may not) reflect an 8% difference in his splits. But in all likelihood, he won't next season, and next season is what specifically concerns Billy Beane and the Oakland A's.

I can wrap my head around the strategy in baseball of specialists and exposing platoons. I see the method in playing to the averages. It doesn't mean I like it; but I understand it. As a fan, my biggest pet peeve about watching ballgames is seeing multiple pitching changes in a half-inning. I see the necessity in a dire situation, but certainly not for the sake of "protecting" a 6-run lead. (Twice last year Bob Melvin used Arthur Rhodes to face one batter with a 6-run lead.)

Wouldn't a better strategy be to simply acquire the best hitter/pitcher available regardless of their handedness?

And the million dollar question still stewing in my crumpled and cramped head, that will have to wait for it's own post tomorrow, is how can it matter when two of the best bullpens last year were Seattle and Anaheim and they sported a grand total of approximately 90 innings of lefties between them (out of about 1000 total relief innings)? Does Anaheim enter the season with the best bullpen in baseball despite no left-handers at all?

Stay tuned...

In the meantime, go check out Only Baseball Matters. A year ago, I was reading this blog everyday, and I came to the conclusion that the Mariners needed some representation in this here blogging thing. With the spiffy new redesign, I hope this means that the stint in the witness protection program is over and John's back to regular posting.

2004-02-09T11:05:00.000-05:00

Tick, tick, tock

One day closer to Opening Day.

One day closer until Ron Villone is a Mariner.

Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi would not confirm the signing, which would fill the 40-man roster, saying only, "We're working on things" (Finnigan, Times).

And just like that, the chunk of change that materialized from the remains of Kaz Sasaki has been spent on office supplies and Ron Villone. David Andriesen of the P-I plays devil's advocate in response to the vitriolic tantrums on the P-I's fan forum for I-want-a-superstar-and-I-want-it-now. I say bravo to Dave for attempting to counter that movement, but he's plain wrong. His argument is six-fold:

1. "There is no $9.5 million."

Andriesen is like Spoon Boy in the Matrix: "Do not try to spend the $9.5 million. That's impossible. Instead, only realizie the truth." Wait for it. "There is no $9.5 million."

Until the Mariners show good faith in their accounting practices, I say, yes there is. As Dave Cameron has noted before, "The Mariners have historically counted contract buyouts against their previous years payroll, so you have to state Sasaki's guaranteed 2004 money as $9 million." Then there's that pesky half a million in incentives Andriesen remarks that Mariners might or might not have awarded Sasaki. Doesn't matter. If you offer incentives you have to budget for that. That half a million doesn't just appear out of nowhere at the end of the season when the player has met the criteria. I'm not buying the these-aren't-the-droids-you're-looking for mantra from the M's here.

2. "It's the worst time of the year to shop."

Every day is the worst time of the year to shop when Bill Bavasi is the one with the shopping list. Yes, with catchers and pitchers reporting in mere days, Management is staring at the free agent leftovers, and that's not entirely their fault.

The gross misconception here is that not even close to 30 of the teams think they've improved themselves. I guess Mr. Andriesen doesn't know any Dodger fans. He must have missed the White Sox Fanfest. Last time I checked the Marlins have yet to replace their Division Series MVP. Have even the reigning champs improved? The hapless Reds of Cincinnati look to have even less hap. And those Rangers that Andriesen jabs at look a heckuva lot better than that triple-A team in Milwaukee. If every team thinks they've improved, then the world is an obscenely rosy place and I'm missing out.

3. "The Mariners don't know what they need."

"What if Scott Spiezio hits 12 home runs in April? What if Joel Pineiro can't throw a strike to save his life?" What if monkeys fly out of my butt?

I can tell you what the Mariners need. Position-player depth. 'Cuz right now, they got nothing. Noth-thing. This is a team one key injury away from irrelevancy. No Edgar or no Ichiro! or no Boone equals no runs.

4. "What if the Mariners stink?"

There's the pink elephant in the room. Worse than that, what if the Mariners stumble out of the gate, attendance drops precipitously by the All-Star break and the M's can't meet their budget? How dangerously close is the breaking point for this team? What is the worst worst-case-scenario the Mariners have planned for?

5. "If the Mariners don't stink, somebody will."

Pundits are never perfect, but if your best hope as an organization is in the bad luck of your competition, that's a sad, sad state and a ridiculously awful strategy for an organization with every resource, save desperate urgency, at its disposal to be a cutting edge franchise .

Andriesen makes a point here that I haven't seen volleyed about save an email: A midsummer trade makes the team responsible for only a fraction of said player's contract. With $9.5 million, a sprinkling of creativity and all the stars aligning just so, you can afford to pick up Ordonez and Beltran at the deadline. Vegas sets the odds much, much more likely on my allegiance changing to the Yankees before the Mariners dream up a scenario that radical.

6. "The Edgar Factor."

That there is no plan B for Edgar is all the more reason to spend the money rather than sit on it. It should be the #1 priority for the Sasaki fund rather than scrambling to replace Sasaki's mere 30+ innings in the bullpen last year.

So what does Bavasi currently have up his sleeve?
"We're not so much looking for an outfielder as guy who can protect Edgar (Martinez, designated hitter) and maybe play some first base," Bavasi said. "Burks would have been perfect, but we couldn't move on him until Sasaki left, and by that time he was far down the road with Boston. So we'll just keep looking around" (Finnigan).
Under rocks. Behind trees. In dumpsters. At the Goodwill. No worries, Bill. You'll find something. Maybe you can trade Quinton McCracken to Arizona for that Greg Colbrunn guy. Oh wait...

Anyone want to suggest an over/under on the days until Bob Finnigan name-drops Andres Galarraga?

First base? Bing!

Designated hitter? Bing!

Right-handed complement for Olerud? Bing!

Nice guy, feel good story, veteran presence, Seattle "face"? Bing!

Now do yourself a favor check out Baseball Outsiders, which looks to be a rather diverse gathering of independent baseball writing on the web. Nick Stampfli currently has a thorough (and giddy, I might add) review of the Mariners FanFest from a week ago.

2004-02-06T10:24:00.000-05:00

Did I do that?

November 1987 was the month before my 9th birthday. The line in the local baseball card shop meandered around the room like a snake. When my turn finally came, I slid my '87 Topps Traded Ellis Burks card across the table. "What's your name?" the smiling, college-aged, extraordinarily normal looking ballplayer asked me. My card came back to me with the words, "To Peter, Ellis Burks." The blue sharpie letters were in an abnormally legible handwriting--his first name crafted into a series of loopy ringlets. That's my memory of Ellis Burks.

This morning I read that Burks has returned once again to the Red Sox despite receiving a more lucrative offer from Bill Bavasi and the Mariners. According to David Andriesen of the P-I:
Burks told reporters in Boston he spent a lot of time on the Internet comparing the two teams. The research and discussions with Red Sox GM Theo Epstein convinced Burks he had a better chance to win a championship in Boston.
Oops. Am I culpable here?

First it's Curt Schilling checking the pulse of Red Sox Nation at SoSH before committing to his trade. Now there's Ellis Burks surfing the web comparing two teams when one offer nearly doubles the other in monetary value. Theo Epstein seems to be cornering the market on internet savvy ballplayers--or at least the inquisitive-minded with a burning, competitive nature and an internet connection. In the back of my mind I really can't help but wonder if Pudge Rodriguez has heard of that interweb thingy.

But is that mean-spirited, Bavasi-bashing, Mariner blogosphere to blame for Ellis Burks choosing Boston over Seattle? The answer is clearly no. All responsibility falls at the feet of this man who has no plan B should the most critical piece of his offensive attack breakdown, a piece that also happens to be the oldest and most fragile one on the roster. All responsibility falls at the feet of this man who has piddled around the past three months, whittling his manager's necessary 25 roster spots into 18-20 useful major leaguers. All responsibility lies at the feet of this man who has performed the once thought impossible task of transforming an irrelevant bench corps into an even more severe liability.

After three months on the job and a whirlwind of transactions, has Bill Bavasi addressed the weaknesses of this team? At this point in the winter, is he just now expecting the fill them? Does he see a useful piece of the puzzle out there?

"We hope so," Bavasi said. "If there is, we'll try to find one" (P-I).

We hope... If there is... we'll try... 1... 2... 3... 4... AAAAAHHHHH!!!

First question: Would Burks have been actually useful to the Mariners or is this another knee-jerk attempt such as the Omar Vizquel fiasco? No doubt, Burks would have become the best hitter period coming off the Mariners bench. He missed most of last season due to a pinched nerve in his elbow, and he's played just 28 games in the field the last three years, which would have given the M's two one-dimensional players in Ellis and Edgar. But that's a scenario the M's should have jumped on months ago given Edgar's injury risk.

Over the last three years, Burks has no significant splits to speak of. He's a better hitter than most of the hitters already in the M's everyday lineup against righties and lefties. PECOTA projects Burks to hit .261/.344/.449 in 297 at bats. Tone that down just a wee bit for Safeco Field. It also predicts a 58% chance for Burks to improve from last year (it really wouldn't take much) and just a 17% chance for his skills to drop off the face of the planet, a la Cirillo.

He would have been a perfect piece to substitute those Mariners (I'm talking to you, Ibanez and Olerud) who turn into pumpkins against lefties. I'm imagining late innings against the all-lefty-relief-corps of Oakland. Bob Melvin decides to take the bat away from Raul Ibanez for... Willie Bloomquist. Bavasi's had all winter to deal with this gaping hole, and so far, his strategy seems to be "If I ignore it, it will go away."

Which leads to second question: Why did Bill Bavasi wait to negotiate with Ellis Burks until the first week of February? And don't tell me that the M's didn't have a spare million in change until now. That's not a good enough answer.

No doubt, if I'm a productive hitter with maybe one last chance at a championship run, money is no option, and my choices are to play for a team run by Theo Epstein or one by run by Bill Bavasi, I'm going to Boston. No doubt.

Clearly, for ballplayers like Burks and Schilling, players curious enough to do their homework, it's about more than money. The sentimental 9-year-old in me wants to say I could have told you that about Ellis Burks just from the way he looked at me 16 years ago.

UPDATE:
This post has been corrected. Thanks to Tribe Fan Dave for pointing out that Burks's '03 injury was a pinched nerve in his elbow that caused numbness and weakness in his hand rather than a knee problem.

2004-02-05T09:08:00.000-05:00

How the west was won

In a random fit of speculation, perhaps it's the nervous, February restlessness, I cobbled together the following table. These are what the 25-man rosters of the four AL West organizations may be, based upon their current 40-man rosters, a half a cup of common sense, three-quarters tablespoon name recognition (particularly for that Ranger pitching staff), a dash of clairvoyance and a pot of Inspiration Soup.

American League West Rosters

Position	Seattle	Oakland	Anaheim	Texas
C	Davis	Miller	Molina	Diaz
1B	Olerud	Hatteberg	Erstad	Teixeira
2B	Boone	Ellis	Kennedy	Young
SS	Aurilia	Crosby	Eckstein	Rodriguez
3B	Spiezio	Chavez	Glaus	Blalock
LF	Ibanez	Kielty	Guillen	Mench
CF	Winn	Kotsay	Anderson	Nix
RF	Ichiro!	Dye	Guerrero	Jordan
DH	Martinez	Durazo	Salmon	Fullmer
Bench	Wilson	Melhuse	Nieves	Laird
Bench	Hansen	Karros	DaVanon	Perry
Bench	Bloomquist	Byrnes	Amezaga	Dellucci
Bench	McCracken	McMillon	Figgins	Nivar
Bench	Santiago	Menechino	Halter	E. Young
SP	Garcia	Hudson	Colon	Rogers
SP	Moyer	Mulder	Washburn	Park
SP	Pineiro	Zito	Escobar	Dickey
SP	Franklin	Redman	Ortiz	Lewis
SP	Meche	Harden	Lackey	Benoit
RP	Guardado	Rhodes	Percival	Cordero
RP	Hasegawa	Bradford	F. Rodriguez	Zimmerman
RP	Soriano	Rincon	Shields	Nelson
RP	Mateo	Hammond	Donnelly	Powell
RP	Jarvis	Mecir	Weber	R. Rodriguez
RP	Myers	Duchscherer	Sele	Shouse

Certainly, much will happen over the course of the next two months. (Opening Day is two months from today!) The final two to three spots on the rosters--the back ends of the bullpen and bench--will likely shuffle around throughout the camps. This is under the assumption that the Angels handle their overloaded outfield by moving Erstad to first.

Just a couple of random thoughts while compiling this:

*Top to bottom, the Angels have a damn fine bullpen.

*As bad as the Mariners' bench is, the benches for each of the other teams are about as spectacular as a frankfurter.

*How would you like Orel Hershiser's job? "You want me to put together a viable pitching staff with that?" While the Mariners roster is pretty much set, one spring story to watch will be what the Rangers do with these pitchers. Seriously, they could make a reality show out of this--"Texas Aces." Get my agent on the phone.

So who enters camp with the advantages? Let's take a look position by position:

Catcher: As much as I've complained about the Mariners' catching assets, or lack thereof, the M's are not alone in that predicament. Come one, come all--the AL West catching out-makers. Put a bat in their hands, and I wouldn't trust any of them to break the pinata. Molina is a gold glove defender, and deservedly so, but he's a blackhole in the lineup. If you were to threaten my life, I would have to with Ben Davis and say that the Mariners have the edge here. However, the question is akin to asking who I'd rather see naked, Barbara Walters or Joan Collins? Yeah, thanks a lot for asking. Seattle.

First Base: If the Angels go with the foolish plan of moving their greatest defensive asset to the least important defensive position, it's not them. Question of the day: Is John Olerud's precipitous drop in power due to an inability to hit the ball as far as he used to or because he's lost a step or two or three getting to second on those shots to the gap? I believe I've mentioned it before, but I swear, Johnny O hits the longest singles you will ever see. He still has the batting eye of a hawk, but I must say, the Rangers now have the most potent first baseman in the division in Mark Teixeira. He'll have no challenge putting the ball over the fence. Just wait and see. Texas.

Second Base: Now that we know 2001 wasn't a fluke, and I can in all confidence that the Mariners boast the best second baseman in all of baseball. This one's not even close. Seattle.

Third Base: As thin as the position is across baseball, the AL West is stacked at the hot corner with arguably the three best in the league. There are three All-Stars and a guy whose played a total of 134 games at third over the last 8 years. It's sort of like that Sesame Street game "Which of these is not like the others?" I give the edge to Oakland. Chavez is a glove wizard and if he could just learn to hit a left-handed pitcher (just even one, it doesn't have to be all of them), I'd be as magnanimous in my praise as Billy Beane. Oakland.

Shortstop: Texas. Why even ask this question?

Left Field: Now this is an amazingly mediocre group of corner outfielders. At least Bobby Kielty gets on base at a respectable rate. Oakland.

Center Field: Now if the Angels indeed move Garrett Anderson, they sport one of the best center fielders in the game, both in offensive and defensive contribution. Mark Kotsay will be a large improvement for the A's, but he is not Anderson's equal. Anaheim.

Right Field: If only every month was May: Ichiro! hit .389/.415/.558 last May. He also hit .242/.287/.333 for the month of August. I blame Jayson Stark as his Ichiro!-for-MVP column eerily coincides with Ichiro!'s 2003 collapse. Otherwise, Ichiro!'s the man. Both Dye and Jordan could make good preseason picks for Comback Player of the Year. They were both once useful players. I'm pretty sure Bob Melvin is the only human being on the planet that honestly believes Vlad Guerrero is not the best right fielder in the game, much less the division. Anaheim.

Bench: Barbara Walters or Joan Collins? Yuck. Karros, Byrnes and McMillon are at least useful parts. Oakland.

Starting pitching: Texas... just kidding. Hershiser might just have to take the mound himself. Seattle had one of the strongest rotations last year, but their three youngest pitchers set career highs in innings pitched, so we'll have to see how they recover the season after. Their protecting defense is a mere shell of its former self, and Rafael Soriano hangs in the balance. Meanwhile, down I-5, there's the Big Three. Aw heck, call them the Big Guys, Big Staff, whatever. You'd think ace pitchers grew on trees in Oakland. Oakland.

Bullpen: Texas... just kidding. This is another strength of the division. Again, Soriano matters to the Mariners, as moving him to the rotation weakens the bullpen. Much talk will be made in the next months over a lefty for the Mariners. With a relief corps of Guardado, Hasegawa, Soriano and Mateo, the last two slots are inconsequential, really. Billy Beane seems to have acquired every left-handed reliever. Conspiracy theorists postulate this is to keep opponents from neutralizing his pet third baseman in the late innings. Meanwhile, Bill Stoneman should write the textbook on bullpen construction. Anaheim.

For those keeping score, that's Oakland 3, Anaheim 3, Seattle 2, Texas 2. A crude methodology, I most readily admit, and it proves nothing but that there is no front-runner in the division at this point. Perhaps we should revisit this again sometime. So can we start playing the games already?

In the meantime, try some of Marcy's Enchilada.

(html credits to Weisman).

2004-02-04T11:11:00.000-05:00

Vlad: The now only slightly less intimidating impaler

In perusing Jeff Sullivan's Angels in the Outfield preview over at Fire Bavasi, this little bit jumped out at me at slapped me around a bit:
At the same time, it needs to be pointed out that there is a 96-point difference between Guerrero?s career OPS on turf and on natural grass, and also that he?s been 70 points worse away from home. This isn?t to say that he?s a bad player, of course, but rather that his days of near-.600 SLG and 1.000+ OPS figures are likely gone for good, as he?ll regress from Ubermensch level to just really, really good.
Lost in all the Angels-as-World-Series-favorites hoopla is how playing away from Olympic Stadium is going to affect Vlad Guerrero. Typically a players grass/turf split isn't going to matter significantly. The AstroTurf stadium seems to have died along with the careers of Kevin Costner and Hootie and the Blowfish. The SkyDome in Toronto, the Metrodome in Minnesota, Tropicana Field in Tampa and Olympic Stadium in Montreal represent the last remnants of the carpeted-baseball fad. With the close of Veteran Stadium in Philadelphia last season, there are now only four turf stadiums. Of those five most reason turf stadiums, two have been located in the AL East, two in the NL East and one in the AL Central. Thus, the analysis of grass/turf splits or even inside/outside splits, particularly to west coast teams like the Mariners, becomes nearly irrelevant.

Exceptions, however, are Guerrero and those like him who have spent their entire career playing baseball in a concrete sarcophagus such as Olympic Stadium. Guerrero has played more than half of his career inside and on turf, and so a careful look at how these situations affect his hitting is important.

           AB   H XBH  BB   K  AVG  OBP  SLG

Turf     2272 751 320 243 290 .331 .400 .616

Grass    1491 464 174 138 194 .311 .375 .545



           AB   H XBH  BB   K  AVG  OBP  SLG

Indoors  2041 675 295 196 262 .331 .394 .619

Outdoors 1722 540 199 185 222 .314 .386 .550

Essentially, the two above scenarios are the same. Baseball indoors equals baseball on turf, and vice versa. The exceptions, of course, are the Vet and Skydome, which account for the 200 AB difference for Vlad.

The obvious conclusion is that Vlad has been a better hitter on turf indoors. Whether the difference is the indoor air or the carpet is nearly impossible to differentiate. What is significant, however, is the fact that Guerrero will be playing rougly 110 games in the outdoor grass parks of the AL West in 2004 (unless it's a drizzly early spring day in Seattle).

A more careful inspection reveals that there is essentially no difference in Vlad's game regardless of the stadium. He hits for extra bases in 14% of his at bats both on turf and indoors, 12% outdoors and 11% on grass. He walks in 11% of his at bats both on turf and outdoors, 10% indoors and 9% on grass. He strikes out in 13% of his at bats in each circumstance. The differences are negligible. The difference in his batting average between turf and grass is .020. That's 20 more hits in 1000 at bats, or 10 over the course of a typical 500-at bat season, or roughly one every two weeks.

Unfortunately for the Mariners and the rest of the AL West, an outdoor stadium on grass isn't Vlad's kryptonite.

Amazing, isn't it, how one lousy hit every two weeks creates a .096 difference in OPS?

And, if Gary Sheffield at third warrants the title "Infield of Doom," then Mark McLemore at third in Yankee pinstripes makes their infield "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse."

I have now found my new daily first stop on the web: Dead Reckoning. I think you may agree.

2004-02-03T10:36:00.000-05:00

Oh be careful little ears what you hear

From Sunday's Boston Herald:
Flush with about $8 million in cash now that closer Kaz Sasaki flew the coop, the Seattle Mariners are weighing trading away outfielder Randy Winn and some pitching for either the White Sox' Magglio Ordonez or Milwaukee's Geoff Jenkins (Silverman).
Meanwhile, the Chicago Sun-Times reports Magglio Ordonez isn't going anywhere:
For fans still holding their breath waiting for [General Manager Ken] Williams to pull the trigger on a last-minute trade, it now would be time to exhale. Williams isn't shopping his players. He told Saturday's crowd that Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez aren't going anywhere, and unless somebody knocks his socks off with a deal he just can't refuse (equal or better talent that make less money), the Sox are set for Opening Day.
But really, what do you expect Williams to tell White Sox fans--"Say, what do you guys think of Randy Winn?"

Magglio Ordonez will not be a Mariner for two reasons. Reason #1: Ken Williams wants a deal that "knocks his socks off." The only sock-knocking deals Bavasi has shown to be to capable of go along this line: "Hey Mr. GM, what will you give me for Ben Davis?" "Uh, how about nothing?" "Cool, it's a deal!" Reason #2: Magglio Ordonez plays right field. Ichiro! plays right field. Bob Melvin has all but said Ichiro! ain't movin' to center. And that, my friends, would leave the Mariners with two right fielders and no center fielder. That is, unless you want to see Quinton McCracken everday in center.

Speaking of the above-mentioned White Sox FanFest... It sure sounds a bit more electric than the one in Seattle last weekend, don't you think?
About 2,500 Sox fans were given the chance to ask questions of a five-person panel that consisted of manager Ozzie Guillen, general manager Ken Williams, announcers Ken ''Hawk'' Harrelson and Darrin Jackson, and assistant general manager Rick Hahn. It didn't take long for the pessimists to surface, obviously committed enough to brave frigid temperatures to attend the evening gathering but not willing to supply any warmth. Anger was vented in many forms, from the team's inability to make a significant offseason move to the sense of going public with Frank Thomas' decision to not return phone calls to the hiring of an inexperienced manager in Guillen, who no longer could believe what he was hearing. When a series of somber questions bombarded the panel, Guillen had heard enough. ''Why are you so negative?'' Guillen implored into his microphone, his face turning red. Harrelson interjected, lashing out at Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti. Fireworks night never was this spectacular. When one fan tried to lighten the mood by taking the microphone to ask Williams if he wanted to go get a beer afterward, Williams' response was quick: ''After this session, I'm going to need more than a beer.'' It was about the last lighthearted thing Williams said as his mood turned aggressive, inviting everybody to come to the microphone to get issues off their chest. When one young adult fan started a question about raised ticket prices by stating he was a recent college graduate with a new job but still on a tight budget, Williams fired back: ''Good for you. What is your question?'' (Padilla, Sun-Times).
Can you feel the love? I wonder (wink, wink) why the Mariners didn't host a similar town-meeting-style panel discussion with Bill Bavasi, Bob Melvin, assistant GM Lee Pelekoudas, Dave Niehaus and Rick Rizzs?

My top ten questions to such an imaginary panel:

10. Mr. Rizz, how do you muster the same intensity for a first inning infield pop-up that you do for a 9th-inning, game-winning home run? Have you considered decaf?

9. Mr. Melvin, you used only five starters all season despite the fact young arms such as Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro were clearly fatigued in the second half. How did you justify this while the Mariners were in the heat of a pennant race?

8. In three of the last four seasons, the Mariners have finished behind the Oakland Athletics, a team of vastly inferior resources. Why is this? Have any of you read Moneyball? Why do you feel the A's have reached the playoffs for four consecutive years with the Mariners watching them on TV for the past two Octobers?

7. Mr. Bavasi, you traded Jeff Cirillo's albatross salary and wasted roster spot to San Diego for three of Kevin Towers's salary albatrosses and wasted roster spots. Why did you let Mr. Towers bully you like that?

6. Is there actually a Plan B should Edgar's quirky hamstring act up again? Will his legs be wrapped in duct tape all season long or will he be provided with a specially designed wheelchair so that he can still bat in the lineup should his legs give out?

5. The Braves of the 90's effectively integrated home-grown talent into their pennant-winning teams year in and year out. What keeps the Mariners from adopting a similar organizational philosophy? Do Rafael Soriano and Chris Snelling have any future whatsoever with this club?

4. The Mariners have collected a plethora, sorry, I mean, a lot, of pitching talent in the farm system. How long will it be left to rot there while every lefty thirty-something retread is brought in to patch up the bullpen? And if torn labrums are so contagious, shouldn't some kind of quarantine be put in effect?

3. What is the Mariners backup plan should Ben Davis fail to live up to his "Mariners Catcher of the Future" label?

2. Mr. Bavasi, you've been quoted as saying the Angels are the best team in the division. How did this happen, as the Mariners finished 16 games ahead of Anaheim last season, averaged 2,500 more fans per home game than Anaheim last season and are spending more than $10 million more than the Angels (according to ESPN)?

1. Mr. Bavasi, I'm a recent college graduate. I double-majored in communications and Russian poetry with a minor in basket weaving. Furthermore, I have no experience whatsoever in baseball. How might I go about applying for your job?

On a more technical note, I have repaired the rss feed for the site, so it is once again operational. Additionally, Mariners Musings now has an Atom feed available. Oh the joys of syndication.

2004-02-02T09:57:00.000-05:00

Don't mess with me, porkchop. What day is it?*

Another six more weeks of winter and I'm going to crack.

No joke.

And please don't tell me that pitchers and catchers report this month. This month?! Are you serious? Three measly weeks until... ?

Please don't say the S.T. words around me. My baseball-fan-co-worker described those activities of March baseball best when he said to me the other day they are "worse than nothing." When Julius Caesar is warned about the Ides of March, 'tis not a forewarning of his expiration date. Rather, 'tis a premonition against that flirtatious, lusty blonde that poses as spring baseball.

For that's all it is. A cruel tease. A vile flirt. There's something about it that's so fake. A mirage in the desert. It doesn't count. A hollow imitation. Something like when you're 14 and the hottest girl in junior high smiles and waves your way. You freeze. Shyly acknowledge and wave back. Only to find her pack of friends right behind you. It's such a tease.

Tuesday, April 6: Anaheim at Seattle. That's the only day that matters.

In the meantime, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning. They don't postpone Opening Day for that, do they? Do they?

All work and no baseball makes Jack a dull boy. Man, I'm going to crack. What do you think, Tony?

2004-01-30T11:25:00.000-05:00

DIPS (not the Super Bowl snack, here)

1) Mathematics is the language of nature. 2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3) If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature (Pi, Aronofsky).
As Dave and Derek have already pointed out, Bob Finnigan has a lesson or two yet to learn about the mathematical language of baseball. If Finnigan writes a baseball fantasy preview, and you wager money in your fantasy baseball league, don't read that preview, that is, unless you do so strictly for entertainment purposes. He couldn't be any more wrong about Ryan Franklin improving on his 2003 even if he windexed his crystal ball.

Jay Jaffe, the mad scientist behind Futility Infielder, has graciously calculated and posted the 2003 DIPS (Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics). I'll let him explain the background:
The Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS) system was invented by Voros McCracken. His studies of pitching statistics suggest that major league pitchers do not differ greatly on their ability to prevent hits on balls in play. The rate at which a pitcher allows hits on balls in play has more to do with defense and luck than to his own skill, and can vary greatly from year to year. This controversial and somewhat counterintuitive way of looking at pitching statistics has its advantages. The chief one is that we can do a better job of evaluating a pitcher's future performance by concentrating on the defense-independent things he does--strike batters out, walk them, plunk them, and give up homers--than we can by considering the effects of the defense playing behind him.
In essence, the pitcher's destiny is in his own hands when it comes to walks, strikeouts and home runs, but once that ball goes into play, it's up to the seven players behind him whether that ball is caught or if it falls for a hit. In theory, these peripheral statistics--walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed--are much more helpful in predicting a pitcher's success than his ERA, which can be influenced by the quality of the defense behind him.

According to DIPS, no pitcher in baseball was aided more by his defense than Ryan Franklin. It's not even close. The difference between his actual ERA and what his ERA should have been given his peripherals is more than a run and a half per nine innings, which is pretty remarkable.

Here's a table of the 2003 Mariners (min. 200 batters-faced)
(BFP=batters faced, ERA=actual ERA, dERA=DIPS ERA)

         BFP  dERA  ERA   Diff

Moyer    897  4.20  3.27  0.93

Pineiro  890  4.05  3.78  0.27

Franklin 877  5.26  3.57  1.69

Garcia   862  4.82  4.51  0.31

Meche    785  4.79  4.59  0.20

Mateo    338  4.10  3.15  0.95

Hasegawa 283  3.93  1.48  2.45

Rhodes   228  3.37  4.17 -0.80

Soriano  201  1.93  1.53  0.40

                    

Team          4.36  3.76  0.60

As a team, the Mariners' defense made the pitchers look better by more than half a run per game, which comes to about 100 runs over the course of a season. With Bill Bavasi completely punting the defense of the left side of the diamond, the Mariners' pitchers are sure to see more of their balls in play drop of hits. No starter will see this more than Ryan Franklin.

Shigethoshi Hasegawa is another who will greater suffer from the weakened offense, and too a lesser extent, so will Jamie Moyer and Julio Mateo. What all four of these pitchers have in common is the relatively low amount of hitters they strikeout and walk, and thus, a relatively high number of balls they allow into play.

Difference for pitchers like Soriano, Pineiro, Garcia and Meche is the fewer balls in play they allow as their strikeouts or walks or both are at or above the league average. We shouldn't expect a whole lot of change next year from them.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, the one pitcher whose ERA was actually greater than what his peripherals show, thus the only one likely to improve in 2004, is the one pitcher the Mariners let walk away--Arthur Rhodes.

Jay provides an exhaustive list of DIPS links across the web if you're so inclined. John and Larry have also touched on the subject this week.

There may be one saving grace to Franklin. In attempting to explain the discrepancy in Barry Zito's ERA and dERA, Ken of the aptly titled Barry Zito Forever explains, "Recent scrutiny of DIPS has found some exceptions. Some pitchers do demonstrate some control over BABIP. Knuckleballers. Extreme flyball pitchers. Lefthanders. And the most recently discovered exception, pitchers who get lots of infield popups." Franklin qualifies as an extreme flyball pitcher. Is he an exception to the rule? We'll certainly see.

2004-01-29T13:52:00.000-05:00

Frigid day blues

From the days of my youth I remember a Calvin & Hobbes strip in which Calvin steps outside into the snow. His face contorts violently and then he remarks how he hates it when his boogers freeze.

That was me this morning as I waited for an hour on the train platform in the 5-degree dawn air--the kind of arctic air that lights your lungs on fire while at the same time freezing your boogers.

I feel I can't help pointing the following comment out. I know he's a Padre now, but for some reason my heart is still in denial. It's like we've broken up and I'm having trouble letting go. Come on, Pete, just let go. Or better yet, "Run, you fool!" Steven Goldman, in his latest Pinstriped Bible column, contemplates the conundrum the other Boone has brought upon the Bronx:
Third route is to trade for an expensive vet who isn't much use to his present team, such as Adrian Beltre, Phil Nevin, Jeff Cirillo, or Shea Hillenbrand. Beltre is young but consistently awful. Nevin's best days are likely past, but he would still be an offensive upgrade on Boone. Cirillo, like Gandalf, has fallen into darkness while crossing Moria. If a player hasn't shown up since 1999 it's probably safe to call back the St. Bernards. [emphasis added]
And if ever there was a day that our nation yearned for a hero, that day is today. Chris Snelling, arise, for this is your hour.

2004-01-28T10:58:00.000-05:00

The ruling passion conquers reason still

Do you follow hockey? I don't. Well, I didn't.

During my formative years in northeastern Oklahoma, I can't exactly say hockey was on my radar screen. Like sushi, public transportation and the $10-movie, it was a rumor of some other planet. Even in Seattle--no hockey. But things are different now for me. I've had an epiphany of sorts. I live in Northern Virginia, and there's this team called the Capitals. And here I thought they were talking about that domed building downtown.

But I digress... Unless you follow hockey or are a general sports fan within the Beltway you may have missed this little story from Sunday evening:
Washington Capitals owner Ted Leonsis was involved in a physical altercation with a season ticket holder at MCI Center on Sunday night after being taunted and jeered by fans during the team's loss to Philadelphia, the Capitals' first home game since Leonsis traded all-star winger Jaromir Jagr to the New York Rangers. The fan, Jason Hammer, 20, a resident of the District, said Leonsis grabbed him by the neck and threw him to the ground after he had led a mocking chant of Leonsis during the game and hoisted a sign chiding him. Some witnesses explained the confrontation differently, offering varying accounts of the severity of the clash (LaCanfora, Post).

Now, there's plenty of he-said-he-said, kiss-and-make-up going down. Leonsis, who is also the vice chairman of AOL, has publicly apologized to Hammer and invited him to enjoy a game in the owner's box, and Hammer will deny pressing charges. However, the NHL will still investigate the matter and may fine or suspend Leonsis. Thomas Boswell today writes that these are just the fans the Caps should be embracing. Fellow DC blogger and rabid hockey fanatic Eric McErlain has been all over this story both today and yesterday.

I'll readily admit to being naive to specific details of the Washington Capitals and the NHL, but I can't help but feel a wee bit jealous. I mean, think about this. Can you imagine Mariner CEO Howard Lincoln coming to blows with a fan at Safeco Field? Can you imagine Bill Bavasi answering 100 emails a day from critical fans explaining why he signed Raul Ibanez and not Mike Cameron?

Now, absolutely not am I advocating physically attacking Mr. Lincoln nor any member of the Mariners syndicate management. It was a pretty stupid move by both Jason Hammer and Ted Leonsis. And maybe Ted Leonsis deep down really is a bad man of the cookie-cutter sports owner variety.

I just wish the Mariners were run by people that passionate about their team and their fans. Art Thiel in his book records then-Nintendo-CEO Howard Lincoln's response to Nintendo's interest in buying the Mariners a decade ago as, "What the f*ck are you thinking?" Now that is a man in touch with the intangible passions of local professional sports. And he's running my team.

Where are the executives who are warm-blooded, frenetic fans?

Elsewhere, Bob Finnigan reports that Bill Bavasi has discussed Pudge Rodriguez with Scott Boras. The golden question is, though, have they discussed the future of Carlos Beltran? One name Finnigan drops is Ron Villone, who might be an effective lefty swingman. However, last year Villone was one of those rare cases being more effective against righties than lefties, though his 3-year splits don't bear that out. Eeh.

For once, though, John Hickey outdoes Finnigan in the game of ridiculous name dropping: Raul Mondesi and Travis Lee. Yuck, yuck, yuck. Raul's a rightfielder, right-handed hitter who gets on-base just one-third of the time. Lee's a left-handed first baseman who finds it a challenge getting on-base against left-handed pitching. Neither fills an emergent need. Which probably makes them items #1 and #2 on Bill Bavasi's to-do list.

The Mariners blogosphere continues to swell to potentially world dominating proportions:

Sons of Buhner articulately contrasts the off-season strategies of both Bill Bavasi and the Padres' Kevin Towers and Bavasi and the Royals' Allan Baird.

Mariner Minors: A little over a month ago I pined for a Mariners blog in the flavor Brad Dowdy's excellent Atlanta-themed No Pepper. I got my wish, and I'm so happy.

San Shin takes it's name from the Japanese term for "three strikes." Author Jeff Shaw astutely points out just how clueless the Seattle GM is. Might I add that Sasaki pitched only 33 innings last year. I believe that hole you speak of, Bill, has already been patched.

Unfortunately, the ruling passion of the Seattle Mariners conquers reason, and it's name is not "Baseball."

2004-01-26T16:41:00.000-05:00

Snow day! (and some unforgettable Mariner moments)

I can't remember the last time I had one of these (the snow day, that is). Snow, ice, blech. I have cabin fever as it is.

Pardon the narcissitic aside here, but I just noticed the total number of visitors to this site since last May. According to MLB.com, Safeco Field seats 47,116. That means there have been enough visitors of this blog to just about fill Safeco Field to capacity. And that, my friends, is a surreal thought. Thank you one and all for visiting and visiting again and again. Then again, it could just be my enthusiastic kid sister racking up the hits just to boost my ego. I gotta love her.

So I thought I'd follow up the list of Worst Mariner Non-Pitcher seasons with a reciprocal list of Best Mariner Non-Pitcher seasons. I did the research, and you know what I found? That was a boring project. No kidding. The top ten seasons are all Junior, Alex and Edgar. That's it. Now don't get me wrong. Those are three of the four greatest Mariners ever. I just find Leroy Stanton and Juan Bernhardt more interesting to write about.

Maybe it's me, but I'm more often than not drawn to the villain rather than the hero. I don't think I'm the only one. I mean, the name of the sequel to Silence of the Lambs was not Clarice. George Lucas did not choose to write a trilogy explaining the origin of Han Solo. Apparently I'm not the only one who finds Judas Iscariot the most fascinating character of the Gospels, from a strictly literary perspective.

Yeah, so Cirillo-sized tragically flawed Gollum-villains. Fascinating. Griffey-sized superheroes. Boring.

But here's that list, just for kicks, if despite the these Bavasi Dark Ages, one can remember those golden days of Seattle baseball past:

10. Alex Rodriguez, 1998.

Alex hit .310/.360/.560 with an EqA of .307. He became baseball's second 40/40 player when he slugged 42 home runs and stole 46 bases (in 59 tries, a 78% success rate). He led the league in hits with 213 while scoring 123 runs and driving in 124. Meanwhile, his defense was worth 23 runs above replacement, and overall, he was worth 9.8 wins above replacement to the third-place Mariners.

9. Edgar Martinez, 1995.

Edgar's 1995 just edges Alex's 1998 on the basis that Edgar put together the best purely offense season in Seattle history. He hit .356/.479/.628 with an EqA of .366. He led the league in batting, on-base percentage, on-base plus slugging (1.107), games played (believe it or not, 145 in the strike-shortened season), runs scored (121), doubles (52), adjusted OPS (183, despite playing in the Kingdome) and times on base (307). He was worth 9.8 wins to the first-ever pennant winning Mariners.

And what self-respecting Mariner fan can forget October 8, 1995? American League Division Series. The evil Yankees. Deciding Game 5. Eleventh inning. Yankees score in the top of the inning. Ace Black Jack on the mound for New York. Cora leads off and bunts a single, eluding the last second swipe-tag from Mattingly. Junior singles to center. Cora scurries to third. Strike one on Edgar. Edgar drives the next pitch to the leftfield corner. Cora scores. Tie game. Carom off the wall. Junior screams around third. Williams throw. Junior scores. Absolute delirium. Mariners win. The defining moment in Seattle baseball history. Edgar went 12 for 21 (.571/.667/1.000) in that series with 5 extra base hits, 6 walks and 10 RBI.

8. Ken Griffey, Jr., 1998.

Junior hit .284/.365/.611 with an EqA of .318. At the age of 28, he led the league in home runs with a career-high 56. He also added 33 doubles, 20 stolen bases, 76 walks, while scoring 120 runs and driving in 146. He finished fourth in the MVP vote and won a gold glove with his defense that was worth 27 runs above replacement. Overall, Junior was worth 10.9 wins above replacement to the third-place Mariners.

7. Ken Griffey, Jr., 1993.

At the age of 23, Junior hit .309/.408/.617 with an EqA of .337, the best offensive season of his career (sans an EqA of .341 in strike-shortened '94). He hit 45 home runs to go along with 38 doubles and led the league in total bases (359) and extra base hits (86). For the only time in his career, he walked (96) more often than he struck out (91). He finished fifth in the MVP voting; Frank Thomas won unanimously in a rather dubious selection in the scathing light of advanced metrics. Griffey won his fourth consecutive gold glove with a defense worth 17 runs above replacement. Overall, he was worth 11 wins above replacement for the as usual third-place Mariners.

5. Bret Boone, 2001/2003.

Take your pick, really. Boonie had essentially the same season in both '01 and '03, so he gets #5 and #6. His offense is just a shade better in '01, and his defense is just a shade better in '03. In 2001, Boone hit .331/.372/.578 with an EqA of .317. Since chicks dig the long ball so much, Boone clocked a career-high 37 of them and led the league in runs batted in with 141. He finished second in the league in hits (206) and total bases (360). He finished third in the MVP vote behind Ichiro! and Jason Giambi. His defense was worth 33 runs above replacement, and his overall worth was 11.1 wins above replacement for the historic, 116-win Mariners.

Two years later, proving '01 was not a fluke, Boone hit .294/.366/.535 with an EqA of .311. How might his '01 season not be better than that? As one may note, his on-base percentage was essentially the same despite a .040 point drop in his batting average. He had 20 fewer hits in '03 but still sluged the same number of extra base hits, walked 28 more times and stole three times as many bases. He won his third gold glove with a defense with 37 runs above replacement. Overall, he was worth 11.1 wins above replacement for the second-place Mariners, yet he managed only 10th in the MVP vote.

4. Ken Griffey, Jr., 1991.

In his third professional season, just old enough to drink, Junior hit .327/.399/.527 with an EqA of .325. He slugged 22 home runs with 42 doubles and 71 walks. Nothing too jaw-droppingly spectacular, really. Except that he was just 21. It's his defense that makes this Junior's second best season--a career best 35 runs above replacement. Overall, he was worth 11.2 wins above replacement to the fifth-place, yet first ever over-.500, Mariners.

3. Alex Rodriguez, 1996.

In just his first full season in the big leagues, the 20-year-old Alex hit .358/.414/.631 with an EqA of .334. Yes, the Kingdome was such a friendly park for hitters. He finished runner-up in the American League Most Valuable Player balloting by a mere 3 points. He led the league in batting, runs scored (141), total bases (379) and doubles (52). And if a 20-year-old shortstop hitting 36 home runs doesn't make you exclaim, "Hot dog!", I don't know what does. At shortstop, his defense was worth 32 runs above replacement, and overall, he was worth 12.0 wins above replacement to the second-place Mariners.

2. Ken Griffey, Jr., 1997.

Winning the first Most Valuable Player Award in Mariner history, Junior hit .304/.382/.646 with an EqA of .332. He led the league in slugging, runs scored (125), total bases (359), home runs (56), runs batted in (147) and extra base hits (93). He won the award unanimously, and rightfully so. He also won his eighth consecutive gold glove with a defense worth 29 runs above replacement. Overall, Junior was worth 12.3 wins above replacement for the pennant-winning Mariners.

1. Alex Rodriguez, 2000.

While Alex's raw numbers are slightly better in '96, his 2000 season is even better given the fact he was hitting in Safeco Field, rather than the Kingdome, and also because he doubled his walk total. He hit .316/.420/.606 with an EqA of .337. With 41 home runs, Alex topped 40 for the third consecutive year, and he was still just 24. He reached a career high in bases on balls with 100. His previous high had been just 59, the year previous. He scored 132 runs, drove in 134 and finished third in the AL MVP vote. You can certainly argue that Alex was more valuable than 2nd place DH Frank Thomas, but good luck arguing he was better than Jason Giambi that year. Tough call. Alex's defense was worth 34 runs above replacement, and overall, he was worth 12.4 wins above replacement for the pennant-winning Mariners.

Someone explain to me please how only in 1998 could these guys have overlapping great seasons? (Please don't tell Junior he's not #1).

Now, let's see if I can dig up anymore villains...

2004-01-23T11:00:00.000-05:00

Round up the usual suspects

"We won't live and die with the same lineup this season," Melvin said. "I'm going to do what I think is the right thing. The law of the land will be mine" (Thiel, P-I).

From all accounts, Bob Melvin is ready to break out of his shell and shake up the lineup. One of Melvin's habits last season that I found most baffling was his rigid adherence to his lineup. And from a certain perspective I can understand this.

I am a creature of habit. I find I thrive in the security of routine. I like to take the 7 am train every morning. I'll eat my lunch at 12:30 everyday. I check my email at the sametime everyday. And when my routine gets derailed, I get grumpy. I panic. For crying out loud, don't interrupt me. Some find the life of ritual and routine boring. As for me, well, it's my solace, and I'm addicted. And maybe I really should seek help or something.

Were I a ballplayer, I imagine I would like my "role" specifically defined for me--that my job is the everyday third-baseman, that I bat second in the lineup everyday, etc. Are ballplayers as ritualistic as I am? I'm convinced so.

But on the subject of batting lineups and Melvin's radical ideas to shake it up a bit for spring training, and specifically moving Ichiro from lead off slot to the "clutch" #3 hole. Here's an excellent argument is support of that move:

2001-2003
None on - .319/.350/.430 (1348 AB)
Runners on - .346/.417/.460 (670 AB)
Scoring position - .389/.483/.497 (360 AB)

Those are substantial enough sample sizes to derive some meaning from them. While Ichiro is a very good leadoff hitter (a leadoff hitter's primary objective being to get on base), he's not a leadoff hitter in the prototypical Rickey Henderson-mold (but then who is?), and he's a much more successful hitter with runners on base ahead of him. He doesn't work the count, but he does make contact enough to justify his role as a table-setter. However, I believe Melvin would do well to slip Ichiro lower in the batting order to give him more opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position. After all, he's been hitting behind Jeff Cirillo and Dan Wilson the past few years, and the primary goal of the game being to score more runs than the other team.

Now, some will argue that lineups don't matter. They're probably right. I mean, how many runs difference over the course of 162 games are we talking if you move Edgar into the leadoff slot and Ichiro to sixth and just sheer random madness? But it does affect the dynamic and strategy of the whole team. Clump all of your lefty hitters together, and it offers the opposing manager the opportunity to bring in his lefty-killer late in the game to neutralize an entire inning. Alternate your high on-base hitters with your Jeff-Cirillo-out-machines, and you'll never get a rally going.

If I had the opportunity to devise the Mariners lineup, I would subscribe to the strike-first-strike-hard-no-mercy-sir theory. I want to score in the first inning, so I want my best hitters at the top of the lineup. I want to clump my high on-base hitters together at the top and tuck my out-makers at the bottom. I'll alternate righties and lefties. Here's how the Mariners faired last year in terms of on-base percentage from each lineup slot, along with the character(s) responsible:

#1 - .353 (Ichiro, almost exclusively)
#2 - .344 (Guillen, also Winn, McLemore and Sanchez)
#3 - .379 (Boone, little bit of Edgar)
#4 - .387 (Edgar, little bit of Olerud)
#5 - .367 (Olerud, little bit of Cameron)
#6 - .328 (Cameron, also Winn)
#7 - .327 (Winn, also Cirillo and McLemore)
#8 - .307 (Cirillo, also Sanchez and Wilson)
#9 - .287 (Wilson, also Davis and Bloomquist)

Thus, Melvin put together a pretty efficient lineup: Good hitters clumped at the top, bad hitters clumped at the bottom. The very best hitters were 3-4. But how does one make it better, and how does one capitalize on Ichiro's obvious strength of hitting with men on base ahead of him?

Manager Bob Melvin said yesterday he plans to experiment with Ichiro batting third, with Randy Winn leading off and John Olerud in the second spot (Hickey, P-I).
The biggest question in pulling Ichiro from the top spot is then, who leads off? Melvin wants to experiment with Winn. I'm not sure I like that idea, but we'll run with it. (Winn hit .317/.375/.492 in 300 at bats for the Devil Rays in '02). Maybe it's not such a bad idea.

So using last year's OBPs and their pitchers per plate appearance, here's Melvin's new top-of-the-lineup idea:

#1 - Winn (.346/3.6) (S)
#2 - Olerud (.372/3.9) (L)
#3 - Ichiro (.352/3.5) (L)

I rather like the look of that. Winn isn't that much from Ichiro, in terms of getting on-base, and he might even improve on that next year if he's given a single role in the lineup. Last year, Melvin jerked him up, down and around the lineup. Moving Olerud up would greatly increase the production from the 2-hole. Furthermore, at this point in his career, Olerud's strength is getting on base while his power has greatly diminished. Hitting second would greatly capitalize on that strength while de-emphasizing that weakness. Olerud works the count, sees a lot of pitches, which would allow ample opportunities for Winn to run, and Olerud doesn't strike out often, which gives Melvin the option of hit-and-run. I would guess, then, that the rest of the lineup would look something like this:

#4 - Edgar (.406/4.3) (R)
#5 - Boone (.366/3.9) (R)
#6 - Ibanez (.345/3.9) (L)
#7 - Aurilia (.325/3.5) (R)
#8 - Spiezio (.326/3.5) (S)
#9 - Davis (.284/3.6) (S)

Following Ichiro with Edgar and Boone takes away the intentional walk that managers have been so fond of giving Ichiro in rally opportunities. I might even go as far as swapping Ichiro and Edgar, as crazy as a 5-9, 172-pound cleanup hitter might sound. It breaks up the lefty-lefty-righty-righty comibination and guarantees Edgar, the M's most productive hitter, an at bat in the first inning of every game, as well as another runner on base for Ichiro. That would, however, pair Olerud and Edgar, the two-toed sloths of the team together, and that would make for many double play opportunities.

Looking at this lineup, I'm rather happy. I like it better than Oakland's and Texas's. Maybe even Anaheim's. If Bob Melvin can think out of the box and successfully experiment through spring training and it sticks into the regular season, then there may be hope after all.

And how's that for optimism?

UPDATE:
Admiral Dave Cameron of USS Mariner gives a response. He's absolutely right: Dropping Ichiro behind base-clogger(s) Olerud and/or Edgar robs him of his running game. And the M's need to be milking every strength they've got with this lineup.

UPDATE II:
Admiral Derek Zumsteg weighs in, considering the groundball effect and double plays. He further adds this consideration:
There is an important thing to consider, though, and that's whether players will take to it. Performance-oriented analysts (like Y.T.) generally scoff at notions like "it takes a special skill to pitch the ninth inning" but if Ibanez is going to be pissy about trying to hide his weaknesses, and Ichiro only wants to bat first, no matter what, and so forth, the team has to weigh whether that unhappiness and potential performance hit is worth it to try for the marginal potential advantage.

Also, new blogger Andy Stallings of Sons of Buhner speculates what the lineup might look like with a little bit of Pudge.

2004-01-22T10:59:00.000-05:00

To Pudge, or not to Pudge? That is the question...

What's that sizzle I hear this morning? That thick aroma coaxing me awake and out of bed? Could it be bacon? Sausage, biscuits and gravy with fresh coffee? Nope, it's Seattle's own culinary baseball wonderboy Larry Stone throwing a little Pudge on the Mariner hot stove:
The departure of closer Kazu Sasaki opens a wealth of possibilities for the Mariners, and it seems probable that the first one they will explore seriously is All-Star catcher Ivan Rodriguez, if he's still on the market. (Times)
He goes on to quote Bill Bavasi saying nothing happens until Sasaki's situation is resolved and an unnamed baseball source saying that could be within a week. All signs point to the Players Union cooperating with both Kaz and the Mariners to bring a swift and trouble-free conclusion to the matter. The biggest obstacle appears to be the strict and exact wording of the proposal to keep this scenario as a one-time event.

So what do the Mariners do about the Ivan Rodriguez sweepstakes? There appears to be mutiny on the horizon upon the USS Mariner on the subject. Pudge, or no Pudge?

Reasons why the Mariners should ignore Pudge:

1. Pudge has managed to play in 120 games only once in the last 4 years--last year--with an injury rap sheet that includes his back and knees. Not good on a cather's resume.

2. Pudge will be 32 entering the 2004 season. Only Johnny Bench had seen more games behind the plate before the age of 29, and his career collapsed at age 34 before ending the next season. Yogi Berra last caught 100 games at the age of 34. Ted Simmons last saw 100 games at 32. Mika Piazza is 35. He didn't catch 100 games last year, and he won't this year either. Time is cruel to catchers, and there's a lot of mileage on those knees--13,076 innings to be exact.

3. Detroit has a four-year, $40 million offer on the table. Ichiro just signed a four-year, $44 million deal with the Mariners. He's the Mariners first 8-figure-salary player, and I don't imagine Management being quite that generous anytime soon. Is Pudge really worth just a million dollars a year less than Ichiro? Not unless he brings with him the monetary value of an entire industrialized nation's fan base.

4. Pudge is a client of Evil Agent Scott Boras.

5. His last name is Rodriguez, which means he's probably a cousin or something to that Alex guy. Like the frat boy in the Energizer commercial who swears off dating girls named after states because of a bad experience with a Georgia, Seattle should stay the heck away from any and every Rodriguez.

6. With a good chunk of the "old guard" set to fall off the payroll next year (Wilson, Olerud, Martinez), the Mariners have to be thinking ahead and would do well to invest in a young, marquee player to build the rest of the club around. Pudge is not that player. Vlad would have been ideal. On the horizon, come the trade deadline and next winter, are Carlos Beltran, Magglio Ordonez, Nomar Garciaparra and Eric Chavez, among others, who will be free agents. Signing Pudge now to a multi-year deal is a reactionary move, and there are better investments just months away. With their stream of revenue, recent reputation of a winning ballclub and highly competitive division, there is no reason why the Mariners should not be the movers and shakers of the division. Not the club playing catch up.

Reasons why the Mariners should sign Pudge:

1. Our current stash of catchers suck. All 38 of them. Mariners catchers combined to "hit" .235/.276/.354 last year with 10 home runs, 57 runs scored, 85 RBI, 33 doubles, 2 triples, 34 walks, 115 strikeouts in 565 at bats, as well as going 0 for 0 on the basepaths. No on-base. No power. No speed. No nothin'.

Comparatively, Pudge himself collected 511 at bats and hit .297/.369/.474 last year with 16 home runs, 90 runs scored, 85 RBI, 36 doubles, 3 triples, 55 walks and 92 strikeouts. He also stole 10 bases in 16 tries. He set a career high for walks and posted the second highest on-base percentage of his career. Pro Player Stadium in Florida is also a much more difficult park to hit in than Safeco Field.

Baseball Prospectus has just made their 2004 PECOTA projections available (subscription required). Dan Wilson projects to .249/.290/.364 in 226 at bats; Ben Davis .246/.314/.401 in 245 at bats; Pat Borders .250/.291/.386 in 100 at bats. Still more nothin'. Meanwhile, Ivan Rodriguez projects to .292/.352/.495 in 454 at bats. That's a higher slugging than any other Mariner projection, even Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez.

And the Mariners have nothing on the horizon in the minor league system. There's Wiki Gonzalez and his work ethic reputation. There's Jim Horner; he's 30. There's Scott Maynard; he's 27. There's former #1 pick Ryan Christianson; he only played in 72 games last year between High-A Inland Empire and Double-A San Antonio.

2. According to Will Carroll, Under the Knife author, "Rodriguez took, and reportedly passed, a physical on Thursday in Detroit. I've said it before in this space and I'll say it again: teams are not failing to sign Rodriguez over concern for his back. They're doing it because...well, I don't really have a good reason." Rumors are Pudge is in the best shape of his career.

3. PECOTA, based upon past players of similar age and makeup, further projects the following EqA's for Pudge over the next three years: .285, .284, .280. Last year, the system projected .293 for him, and he hit .292. It doesn't forecast a precipitous drop in Pudge's production until 2007, which would make a three-year contract a reasonable proposition, but a four-year one quite dangerous.

4. With a good chunk of the "old guard" set to fall off the payroll next year (Wilson, Olerud, Martinez), the Mariners have to be thinking ahead and Pudge is a perfect fit. Larry Stone mentions a Puerto Rican connection with Edgar. With Edgar gone next year, Pudge can take on some designated hitter at bats, saving his knees and back.

5. There's more to baseball than length and monetary size of contract. The Mariners won twice as many games as the Tigers last year. They don't need to either match or best Detroit's offer. After 13 years, Pudge finally tasted his first World Series last year. I find it extremely difficult that he is eager, to any degree, to join the worst baseball team in recent history.

6. Larry Stone also mentions that Bill Bavasi and Scott Boras are good buddies--which makes sense when you think of a hunter/prey relationship.

Should the Mariners be contacting Boras about Rodriguez? I say: Absolutely. That's a guarded "absolutely," by the way. We all know my feelings on Carlos Beltran, don't we? That should be priority numero uno.

A one-year deal wouldn't interfere with that. But short of it, a two-year deal worth $18 million or a three-year deal in the $27-29 range I could endorse. But I'll leave the suits to work out the details.

2004-01-21T11:44:00.000-05:00

Oh the humanity

Unfortunately, I must be brief this morning.

His superpower is writing some of the most stilted, awkward metaphors I think I've ever read, but Art Thiel writes an excellent column today focused on Sasaki. In it he attempts to shine the light on the humanity of this enigmatic character in the Mariner story. After all, this is the first legitimate closer in club history. He broke the team record for saves in just three years. And the fans show no remorse, seeing nothing but freed payroll to spend? Just read the whole thing if you haven't already.

There's more than my gut telling me there's more to the story than Kaz is letting on. I believe there's a story of sadness beneath the hyped veneer, one of a tragic hero forced to grapple with his own hubris. I truly hope that when Kaz says he has something more important in life than baseball that it's more than a clever, pretty line for the cameras. Behind all the statistics, salaries and witty banter, ball players are still flawed human beings no different from myself. Reminders such as these are a cold snap back to reality. I indeed wish Kaz and his family the best.

Meanwhile, Larry Stone provides some insightful comments regarding Eddie Guardado undoubtedly filling Sasaki's shoes.
"Guardado's three-year, $13 million contract was structured for him to succeed Sasaki as closer next year, with reported escalations of about $2 million in each of its last two years. He also had the ability to opt out of the contract after the 2004 and '05 seasons if he wasn't projected as the closer. Guardado apparently could profit from a change of roles in the upcoming season, with a clause calling for an extra $1 million if he finishes 60 games. "But interestingly, Guardado's agent, Kevin Kohler, said yesterday that the subject of Sasaki's potential departure was broached during negotiations" (Times).
All which leads one to believe to Mariners are not as surprised as they're acting to the press. It would appear that the signings of Hasegawa and Guardado were certainly orchestrated for a specific purpose and also with the foreknowledge that all was not well in Sasaki-land. We may never know.

Eddie says, "I'm ready to rock, bro."

Music to my ears on this 23-degree January day.

And might I add that the Royals avoided arbitration with Carlos Beltran with a one-year, $9 million dollar contract. Hold on, isn't that just about what the Mariners are saving on Sasaki? How long until July 31? No, I will not speculate... I will not speculate...

2004-01-20T10:35:00.000-05:00

Sayonara, Sasaki-san

Now why is it that the first image in my head is one of Bill Bavasi scrambling through the Official Mariners' Rolodex for the number of Bobby Ayala's agent? ("I know it's got to be here somewhere!")

Kaz Sasaki will not be pitching again for the Mariners. Not in Spring Training. Not next year. Not ever.

One has to wonder if seeing Tom Cruise in The Last Samurai was a factor.

So that's it then. Sayonara. Sasaki's closing career in Seattle closes not with a bang but with a whimper. And yet again, Management is forced to handle the sticky contractual cobwebs of an unprecedented transaction. Like Junior and Lou before him, Kaz joins a growing list of Mariners evacuating the premises to the mantra of "Family First!" Geez, you'd think Seattle was some remote Pacific island. It's no wonder Pat Gillick had an affinity for the hometown boys.

Thankfully Kaz leaves no gaping wound to the roster in his wake. He did pitch only 33 innings last year. The M's already have a trio of speculative trio of "Closers" ("I hate the word, as I hate hell...")--Hasegawa, Guardado and Soriano. And any chance that a team has to make the payroll of it's highest-paid player just suddenly one morning vanish, it's definitely a good thing. Particularly when that highest-paid player is an aging, injury-riddled, league-average, easiliy replaceable right-hander.

The problem of course comes in how Management chooses to cash in this sudden lotto ticket. With these guys, it's not unlike handing a $100 bill a punk kid hanging outside the CD store and expecting him to invest in his future. I'm that skeptical.

Catcher is the glaring hole in the lineup that Management refuses to address. (Come on guys, the emperor is buck naked.) However, I'll not be hitching myself to the Pudge Rodriguez bandwagon. I blame comments like these:
"The logistics of terminating Sasaki's contract could be problematical and might be drawn out long enough to prevent the team from investing the savings in the dwindling group of unsigned free agents... With the likelihood that the Players Association and commissioner's office will get involved, it figures to get complicated. "'This could take a while,' said a baseball official" (Stone, Times).

And John Hickey writes:
"'The money attached to his contract is in place,' Bavasi said. 'He is still on our roster. That will remain so until such time as he is a free agent or he is released to sign with another club. At this point, (using the money elsewhere) is not part of the discussion.' "There is much about the process that is unknown, given that players don't generally walk away from $8 million guaranteed contracts. Because of that, getting Sasaki his divorce from the Mariners is likely to take at least three or four weeks" (P-I).

So it's not exactly like the M's suddenly have that $8 million in cash to bundle up and offer Pudge or Greg Maddux or even Maels Rodriguez anytime this week. I believe Management would be wise to save the money in a rainy-day-July-31 fund. Anyone else want to take a ride on the Carlos Beltran bandwagon? If I've got $8 million falling off trees and more payroll to drop in '05, that's my one and only target.

In the meantime, making a modest, little, maybe one-year offer to Eric Karros shouldn't be out the question. It should be common knowledge that John Olerud at this point in his career can hit lefties, much less Barry Zito and the A's all-lefty bullpen squad, about as well as I can. Okay, maybe a bit better. Despite this obvious fact, none of Management's bench acquisitions thus far have addressed this glaring weakness. Now granted, Karros was quite possibly the most grossly overpaid everyday first baseman in pro ball last year. However, he would make an excellent Olerud-backup for those Zito/Mulder/Washburn starts or those late innings in Oakland. Karros has smacked around left-handed pitching to the tune of .316/.389/.515 in 307 at bats over the last three years. Why he's seen nearly three times as many plate appearances from righties can only to be attributable to the albatross of a contract the Dodgers gave him. He'd make a valuable role player on the Mariners, which is precisely why I can't imagine the M's even considering him. Then again, he is 36.

As for who replaces Sasaki? Hasagawa's an option, as he proved last year. However, as I've mentioned before, Hasagawa pitches for contact and his ridiculous ERA last year was a direct result of the tight defense last year. The tight defense is gone and Shiggy is going to be giving out hits like nobody's business. Mark my words.

Guardado? Going with Everyday Eddie would require that one of the lefty NRI's sticks. But if it means Bobby Madritsch gets a more serious look, I'm all for it. However, I'm of the opinion that the "Two Required Lefties in the Bullpen at All Times" rule is a bit overrated. Certainly, one wants the odds on their side when facing Jason Giambi or Carlos Delgado, but if you've got a righty that dominates lefties, then what's the point?

Soriano? As much as I would love to see Soriano in the rotation, there is concern over his pitch repertoire. Two years ago, when he was given time in the rotation, he would dominate the lineup the first two times through and get ravaged the third time. He was a two-pitch pitcher, and I have yet to hear how the development of his change-up is coming. If it's not, then certainly the bullpen is his future. I only wish Bob Melvin or Bryan Price might have the imagination to use Soriano as a multi-inning Mariano-Rivera-like "Closer". He's far too good to be limited to just the 9th inning, yet maybe just not good enough to last through the 6th if he starts. Give him the closer's role, putting him in the 8th inning and effectively ending the game two innings early. It would be unorthodox, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

And lastly, John Levasque puts a rather bizarre spin on the Sasaki story that grabbed and shook my attention:
"And yet Sasaki... is being hailed across the Internet today as a savior for his desire to separate himself from the team that wanted him in the worst way four years and 129 saves ago. Rarely is there this sort of unanimity among fans. "'Finally, we get a break this off-season,' one blogger wrote yesterday, clearly ready to bid Sasaki goodbye. "'I've been ecstatic about the news today,' said another. "'I see WS on the horizon,' gushed a third, in reference to either the World Series or the ghost of Warren Spahn."

What's this I see? Seattle sports media quoting bloggers? Can this be true? I had to investigate.

'Twas a puzzling investigation as nowhere among the twenty-some-odd Mariner weblogs I've collected could I attribute the above quotations. I couldn't even find the "savior" sentiment that Levasque seems to be overwhelmed by. I mean, Kevin let out a yelp of glee, but that's about the extent of any brazen joy from the announcement. The general consesus (or rare "unanimity among fans" Levasque mentions) among the Mariner weblogs is the usual doom-and-gloom cynicism--How will Bavasi figure a way to blow this chance?

No, these quotes were far too ecstatic to be the same Mariner writing I've grown accustomed to over the last several months. It wasn't until the daunting thought came to me to search through the 120+ comments on Mike Thompson's P-I blog post. And there was the answer. What Levasque calls "hailed across the Internet" is nothing more than a couple of handpicked comments left on the weblog of his own P-I. Thanks for doing your homework, John. Thanks for giving us the pulse of Mariner Nation straight from the educated commentary and analysis.

I guess it's a small step towards something.

UPDATE:
A translated transcript of Sasaki's press conference appears on ESPN:
There's a part of me that wants to go back and prove my true worth, but I found something more important.... Knowing that a baseball career doesn't last too long for anyone, I wasn't so sure it was the right thing to do to give up seeing my children grow. I'm a father and I simply want to be able to think what's best for my own kids.... I want to say I'm sorry I couldn't become a world champion in front of [the fans of Seattle]. They've all been warm and friendly, including the old women at the supermarket and the old men who lived in my neighborhood.
Best of luck to you, Kaz.

2004-01-19T09:19:00.000-05:00

Ghosts of baseball past

So I was digging around this weekend, looking for quotes to inspire my grad school application essay. This, from G.K. Chesterton's Orthodoxy, leapt out at me:
"It is quite easy to see why a legend is treated, and ought to be treated, more respectfully than a book of history. The legend is generally made by the majority of people in the village, who are sane. The book is generally written by the one man in the village who is mad."

While it didn't serve my essay at all, it provided the perfect summation of the book I just finished. I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a baseball book I had more fun reading than Lawrence Ritter's The Glory of Their Times.

Inspired by the death of Ty Cobb in1961, Ritter set out on a cross-country journey to record the stories of as many of Cobb's contemporary ballplayers as he could find. Each chapter represents an interview, where in nearly every case Ritter found a verbose raconteur eager to reminisce about the glory days of their youth long gone. All Ritter did was start the tape recorder and then transcribe his interviews. The book becomes then a first person oral history of baseball from the turn of the last century to the emergence of Babe Ruth and the long-ball era.

Sure, there are plenty of in-my-day-we-walked-uphill-in-the-snow-both-ways comments, but that's not the point. A co-worker once asked me why I preferred baseball to those other sports. The first thing I tought of was this--the rich history, the timeless tradition, the deep mythology that is baseball. One might deconstruct the details of these stories as warped by 50 years of memory, but Ritter himself admits in his preface that he poured over other primary sources and found the descriptions nearly identical to the accounts told him, and in the rare case of embellishment, he allowed the generosity of creative liscense. The tales are not to be taken with a grain of salt, but rather a wink and a smile.

It's a world, a culture, a sport so familiar, yet so foreign. There's Rube Marquard, Wee Tommy Leach and Wahoo Sam Crawford. There's Fred Snodgrass, Harry Hooper and Smokey Joe Wood. There's Chief Meyers, Lefty O'Doul and Paul Waner. It's a time of colorful nicknames. If you're left handed, then you're Lefty. If you're from a rural hicktown, you're Rube. If you're Native American, you're Chief. (Which makes me wonder how that moniker came to be applied to Freddy Garcia. He's neither Native American, nor is he known exactly for his leadership skills.)

Davy Jones relates the time teammate Germany Schaefer indeed stole first base. Another time Schaefer entered the game as a pinch hitter with his team down by a run. Before entering the batter's box, Schaefer addressed the crowd:
"Ladies and gentlemen," he announced, "you are now looking at Herman Schaefer, better known as Herman the Great, acknowledged by one and all to be the greatest pinch hitter in the world. I am now going to hit the ball into the left field bleachers. Thank you."
The second pitch he smacked over the left field bleachers. He stood at homeplate until the ball cleared the fence. Then he sprinted, sliding into each base: "Schaefer leads at the quarter," into first. "Schaefer leads at the half," into second. Once home, he brushed himself off, took off his cap and again addressed the grandstand: "Ladies and gentlemen, I thank you for your kind attention."

Harry Hooper remembers the rookie Babe Ruth in 1914:

You probably remember him with that big belly he got later on. But that wasn't there in 1914. George was six foot two and weighed 198 pounds, all of it muscle. He had a slim waist, huge biceps, no self-discipline, and not much education--not so very different from a lot of other nineteen-year-old would-be ballplayers. Except for two things: he could eat more than anyone else, and he could hit a baeball further. Lord, he ate too much. He'd stop along the road when we were traveling and order half a dozen hot dogs and as many bottles of sode pop, stuff them in, one after the other, give a few big belches, and then roar, "OK, boys, let's go." That would hold Babe for a couple of hours, and then he'd be at it again. A nineteen-year-old youngster, mind you!

Nearly each of them boasts of the pleasure of playing with Rube Waddell. Others like Christy Mathewson, Honus Wagner and John McGraw become larger-than-life caricatures. They all have a comment for the New York Giants' manager McGraw: "What a great man he was! The finest and grandest man I ever met. He loved his players and his players loved him," says Rube Marquard. "He was a great man, really a wonderful fellow, and a great manager to play for," remembers Fred Snodgrass. "It was really McGraw I didn't like. John J. McGraw. I just didn't enjoy playing for, him that's all," says Edd Roush. "Now McGraw, he was a rough manager. Very hard to play for. I played for him from '28 to '32, when he retired, and I didn't like it," recalls Bob O'Farrell.

I believe I'd be willing to take my chances with Mr. McGraw.

I could go on and on with these quotes.

Lefty O'Doul:
So that's it. It's been a lot of fun, beginning to end. As I told you, I played in my first professional ball game with Des Moines in the Western League in 1917. I was twenty years old then. I played in my last game forty years later, Vancouver in the Pacific Coast League, 1956. Was fifty-nine then. I was the manager and put myself in to pinch-hit. Mostly a gag, you know. But I hit a ball between the outfielders and staggered all the way around to third. A triple. Fifty-nine years old. How about that? Right there--forty years too late--I learned the secret of successful hitting. It consists of two things. The first is clean living, and the second is to bat against a pitcher who's laughing so hard he can hardly throw the ball.
And perhaps Bob O'Farrell says it best:

I certainly enjoyed those years, though. I did get a little discouraged at times, but I guess you do in any job. Of course, when you play every day it gets to be sort of like work. But, somehow, way down deep, it's still play. Just like the umpire says: "Play Ball!" It is. It's play.

Indeed. Baseball is play.

So while we eagerly wait for that next pulse-quickening exclamation--"Play Ball!"--find yourself a copy of The Glory of Their Times.

2004-01-16T09:10:00.000-05:00

The force is strong with this one

The most recent Google hits returning Mariners Musings:

mariners musings - I guess that's an obvious one.

"glove bench" - As this came via Google Poland, I'm really scratching my head as to what they were looking for. I hope they found it. Makes me wonder how the Polish Mariner community is holding up through the winter of Bill Bavasi.

"lance nix" texas - Where's an editor when I need one? That should have been Laynce Nix. But I'm sure he gets that all the time.

"billy beane" - Mr. Beane is one popular guy. If I combed through each and every google search and created a top ten list, I'm pretty sure "billy beane" (all lower case, mind you) would outnumber numbers 2 through 10.

One that particularly caught my interest this past week, though, was "'chris snelling' yoda." This I had to investigate. Just what ties these two colorful characters together to the extent that would inspire internet searching?

What my detective work revealed is that the 22-year-old Snelling signs the name of the Jedi warrior beneath his own name when giving his autograph--at least that was the habit three years ago at the time of this interview with Paul Gierhart of Top Prospect Alert. As Snelling explains,
"The Yoda thing. Well, many people have asked me this and it's hard to explain to a person why I write the name of an ugly looking green guy in my autograph. I do it not because of what he looks like. It started back when I watched Star Wars every day for about 5 years, all through my high school years. I do it because it's my focal point. To me a focal point is something to get your mind off worrying about your technique. When I'm feeling down or unconfident I go back to what he said to Luke Skywalker on planet Endor just when Luke is about to fight Darth Vader in 'Return of the Jedi'. He says, 'Try not, do or do not, there is no try'. It's a mental thing and it works for me. People say I'm immature for having it and believing it but bottom line is I'm twisted and it works for me."
Read the whole interview. It's priceless stuff.

My first reaction to this--Just how cool is this. I think I've found my new favorite Mariner.

My second reaction to this--Is the Australian version of Star Wars different from mine? Because, pardon my geekiness, but in my VHS copy the sage "Do or do not" line comes in Empire Strikes Back on the planet Dagobah prior to Luke's Freudian dual with the Vader that turns out to be himself. Awh, details, schmetails. I know who I'm rooting for in Spring Training. And it's not Raul Ibanez.

Snelling's affinity for the diminutive green one continued into last year's spring training. As John Hickey reported,
"There was a new addition to the Mariners clubhouse yesterday -- a 2 1/2-foot-tall figurine of Yoda from 'Star Wars.' It arrived after noon and resides in front of rookie outfielder Chris Snelling's locker. His nickname, not surprisingly, is 'Yoda.' "'I've always wanted one of these,' Snelling said. 'I got it off eBay'" (P-I).
I have in my head a picture of some Jobu-like shrine. I can only imagine what Boonie's smart remarks may have been. Maybe something along the lines of Yoda using the force to hit a curveball.

Speaking of Mariners' extracuricular activities, did you catch Nathan Fox's notes from the Hot Stove, Cool Music benefit in Boston? It's a Prospectus freebie, so help yourself. The image of Peter Gammons rocking out is arresting, but what most caught my eye was this bit...
8:35 p.m. Non-baseball bands took the first few slots, but now Sandfrog, fronted by Scott Spezio [sic] (he of the recent World Series champion Anaheim Angels, now of the Seattle Mariners) hits the stage. Spezio [sic] is a bona fide headbanging grunge rocker. This is possibly the most surreal experience of my entire life, at least until later, when Gammons plays. With the Paradise amps all set on '11,' Sandfrog doesn't sound half bad. Theo and Gammons, stageside, are smiling and apparently digging it.
Drowning in the sea of number crunching, I had nearly forgotten the M's now carry a "bona fide headbanging grunge rocker."

That's Spiezio on the far left in the black shirt with the mic. I myself have yet to immerse myself in the Sandfrog experience. It appears they have a pair of songs to download off their official website, where they boast to be "one half hard rock, 29% grunge, and two-fifths metal." Apparently math isn't their strong suite. The British Yahoo! Music Directory describes the band "as modern Black Sabbath, power grunge, and even as a triad of metal, grunge, and prog rock."

Spiezio scored #14 on Rolling Stone's 50 Baseball Moments that Rock, where he states, "We were all huge Alice in Chains and Soundgarden fans." He must be in heaven to find himself in Seattle.

I can't seem to find whether the band has recorded any albums, but if any music critics, serious or otherwise, out there have been to a show and want to share a review, I'd be more than happy to post it.

2004-01-15T11:51:00.000-05:00

The worst Mariner seasons ever... again

As promised, here's the continuation and finale of the 10 worst non-pitcher seasons in the 26 years of Seattle Mariner history. Again, the disclaimer: Reading discretion is advised. The following is not intended for small children, pregnant women, nor those suffering from heart conditions.

5. Juan Bernhardt, 1977.

Bernhardt was taken from the Yankees in the expansion draft by the fledgling Mariners. The 23-year-old didn't see any action in that first fateful game on April 6 against Frank Tanana. It wasn't until the fifth and final game of that opening series against the Angels that manager Darrell Johnson worked Bernhardt into the starting lineup as the designated hitter. Bernhardt responded by going 3 for 4 with a pair of singles, two runs scored and an RBI on the first ever home run hit by a Seattle Mariner. He was also hit by a pitch.

So if you're ever on Jeopardy and Alex Trebek gives the answer: "This Seattle Mariner hit the first home run in club history." The questions is... "Alex, who is Juan Bernhardt?" April 10, 1977. Fifth inning. Two out. Off Frank Tanana.

Bernhardt earned a start the next day and went 2 for 4. Thus, Johnson kept him in the starting lineup for a good part of the next month. He did post a very reasonable line for the month of April: 64 at bats, .313/.353/.547. But spring soon gave way to summer and Bernhardt wilted in the wretched Seattle heat. Or maybe it was the concrete claustrophobia of the Kingdome. He was as automatic an out as one can imagine through July and August, hitting .163/.163/.186 for that month of August, yet he still found a place in the starting lineup for the remainder of the season. It's not as if Darrell Johnson had any better options. This is the '77 Mariners we're talking about.

His final line for the year was .243/.259/.354. The free-swinging Dominican (pardon the redundancy) walked a ridiculous 5 times in 305 at bats while slugging 18 extra base hits. He also grounded into 9 double plays. All this translates to an EQA of .218.

Defensively, he did see 21 games at third base (1 error) and 8 games at first (1 error). Given that small sample size, his defensive worth was 2 runs below average, and overall, Bernhardt was worth 0.2 wins below replacement. The M's lost as many games that year as any other American League team (98), but escaped the cellar by winning just one more than the Athletics.

Bernhardt never again saw regular playing time again and was finished with baseball after seeing just one at bat in the 1979 season at the age of 25.

4. Luis Sojo, 1996.

"Here's the pitch. Swing, and it's a ground ball, and it gets on by Snow. Down the right field line into the bullpen. Here comes Blowers. Here comes Tino. Here comes Joey. The throw to the plate is cut off. The relay by Langston gets by Allanson. Cora scores! Here comes Sojo! Everybody scores!!! Sojo comes in!!!"

That was 1995. Luis Sojo is immortalized in Mariner history in that one single at bat that finished off the Angels and sent the Mariners to their first ever playoff appearance. But that was 1995. This is 1996. And Luis Sojo turned back into a pumpkin.

Sojo was signed as a free agent prior to the '94 season. His time in Seattle was spent first as a backup for Felix Fermin, and then as a placeholder for a young upstart 19-year-old kid named Alex. For the year in question, Sojo provided a glove off the bench backing up Alex at short, Joey Cora at second, and was one of several stopgaps at third. He was hitting .211/.244/.263 when the Mariners placed their franchise hero of less than a year earlier on waivers on August 22. He had 10 extra base hits and 10 walks in 247 at bats. Who needs a backup when you've got a 20-year-old kid playing short hitting .358 with 36 homers making $150,000 less than Sojo? Sojo's EQA for the Mariners that year was .155.

Furthermore, his defense far from justified his roster spot. He made 5 errors in 33 games at third, 2 errors in 27 games at second and one error in 19 games at short. He was worth just 4 runs above an average fielder. Overall, his worth was 0.6 wins below replacement. The Mariners fell just short of division-winner Texas, four and a half games back. Meanwhile, Sojo was claimed by the Yankees and became an emblematic part of that dynasty. He would go 3 for 5 in the World Series that year and 6 for 15 in those four World Series in six years for the Yanks.

3. Manny Castillo, 1982.

In October of 1981, the Mariners initiated one of the silliest trades in franchise history. Over the passing of time, it has faded from memory, certainly in light of more recent gaffes in the late nineties that saw Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz and Mike Hampton blossom on other diamonds. Still, looking at the details twenty years later, this one's pretty goofy. In October of 1981, the Mariners acquired Manny Castillo from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for a player to be named later. Four months later, at the start of spring training 1982, the Mariners sent the Royals 25-year-old rookie Bud Black.

Black had seen but just an inning with the Mariners during the '81 season with the Mariners. He would go on to a respectable career putting up ERA+ of 89, 108, 130, 96, 133 and 127. Don't tell me the Mariners of the mid eighties couldn't have used a pitcher 25-30% better than the league average. Manny Castillo's legacy in Seattle, well, is probably enough to make Jeff Cirillo proud.

The 25-year-old Castillo manned the hot corner full-time and batted second for the '82 Mariners. He hit .257/.286/.336 with 22 walks and 33 extra base hits in 506 at bats. That's the fifth worst on-base percentage ever registered by a full-time player (500+ plate appearances) and the tenth worst slugging percentage in Mariner history. He erased himself from the basepaths 8 times in 10 total stolen base attempts, and killed another 11 baserunners while grounding into double plays. His EQA for the season was .223.

Whereas Jeff Cirillo in 2002 provided something with his glove, Castillo did not in 1982. He committed 20 errors in 130 games at third and one error in 9 games at second. He was worth a whopping 17 runs below the average third baseman. Offensive and defensive ineptitude all taken into account, Castillo's worth was 0.6 wins below replacement. The Mariners finished dead last that year, losing 102 games--10 more than the next worst team.

And replace Castillo the Mariners did. They gave the starting third base job to Jamie Allen in 1983 and released Castillo during Spring Training 1984. Interestingly, in the sixth inning on June 26, 1983, Manny Castillo took the mound in then 12-3 runaway at the hands of the Blue Jays. Castillo pitched 2 and two thirds innings and gave up 7 runs on 3 homers, 3 walks a hit batter and a wild pitch. After that, Castillo was gone from baseball.

2. Mike Felder, 1993.

Among the victims of Seattle's Curse of Left Field, Felder suffered it's effects the most. With longetivity considered, Mike Felder is the worst left fielder in Seattle history. Brought in as a free agent in the winter of '92, the 31-year-old brought with him a reputation of speed on the basepaths. He had just a bit of trouble getting to first, though. Though rumors may prove contrary, I believe his nickname "Tiny" was for his .211/.262/.269 batting line while with the Mariners. He walked 22 times in 342 at bats and clubbed 13 extra base hits--and 5 of those were triples. His "tiny" EQA was .194.

In that Bermuda Triangle of the Kingdome's left field, Felder fumbled 2 errors in 143 games. However, his defense was worth a run below an average outfielder. Overall, Felder was worth 0.7 wins below replacement for the '93 Mariners, who experienced a winning record for just the second time.

The following December, the Mariners packaged Felder with a 20-year-old Mike Hampton and sent them to Houston for yet another chapter in the sorry legacy of left field in Seattle--Eric Anthony.

1. Leroy Stanton, 1978.

Stanton is the third representative of the '78 team on this list (four if you count Bernhardt who also was on the roster that year). But Stanton put together the stinkiest season by a Mariner non-pitcher in their short history. Stanton was picked from the Angels in the expansion draft. He spent the '77 season in right field and was the team MVP with 27 homers. Opening Day the following season, Stanton found himself at designated hitter. Despite the fact he was just 31, Stanton's career was finished. Done with. Kaput.

In '78, Stanton hit /182/.265/.248 with a respectable 34 walks in 302 at bats, but a puny 14 extra base hits. After leading the team in homers the previous season, Stanton's power completely went out. The only thing that saves numbers like those is a really, really fancy glove in the middle of the diamond. Stanton was the designated hitter. That's bad. This specialized hitter managed only an EQA of .202. He did play 30 errorless games in the outfield, but his defense was worth a run below average. His overall worth to the team was 0.8 wins below replacement.

Stanton never stepped into the batter's box again, and the Mariners released him prior to the 1980 season.

One can only hope that Bill Bavasi doesn't coax him out of retirement.

*This project was made possible by the good folks behind Baseball Reference, Baseball Library, Retrosheet, Lee Sinins's Sabermetric Encyclopedia and Clay Davenport's Translation cards available at Baseball Prospectus.

2004-01-14T11:10:00.000-05:00

The worst Mariner seasons ever

It could always be worse. In my nightmares Bret Boone turns an ankle Opening Day and Ramon Santiago becomes the everyday second baseman... all season. In my nightmares Ichiro pulls a hamstring Opening Day and Quinton McCracken becomes the starting right fielder... all season. At least Bill Bavasi can't bring back these guys. These guys make up the ten worst offensive seasons ever by Mariners. Most of these guys were regulars, so that disqualifies Cirillo's 2003, and they have to be bad with the bat and the glove. That disqualifies Cirillo's '02. Offensive, indeed. The below is not intended for small children, pregnant women, nor those with a generally faint heart. Proceed with caution...

10. Al Cowens, 1983.

Once upon a time, Cowens had finished runner up in the MVP ballotting. That was 1977 when he hit .312/.361/.525 and won a gold glove for the Royals. The Mariners purchased his contract in the spring of 1982 from the Tigers. He hit 20 homers that year, for just the second time in his career, but posted a brutal on-base percentage of .325. Thus, the Mariners signed him on for another year. The results are a bit frightening.

At the age of 31, Cowens only saw 356 at bats for the '83 M's, though that was the fourth highest total on that team. He split his time between right field and DH, putting together a bone-chilling batting line of .205/.255/.329. Imagine Jeff Cirillo without the bases on balls as the designated hitter. He walked 23 times and hit 28 extra base hits. His EQA was .217. He grounded into 13 double plays that year--just one off his career high, but in half as many at bats.

In the field, he made just two errors for the whole season. But he did just play 70 games in right field. Advanced fielding metrics credit him with 2 fielding runs above the average right fielder. That's not hideously bad, per se, but it far from compensates for his out-producing bat. He was worth 0.5 win above replacement for a team that lost 100 games for the third time in seven years.

So what do the Mariners do with him? They keep him on for another two years before finally releasing him following the '85 season. But wait, they re-signed Cowens for 1986 before finally dumping him for good in mid season, and Cowens was gone from baseball for good. Sadly, he passed away in 2002 at the age of 50 of a heart attack.

9. Mario Mendoza, 1979.

Of course, that Mendoza. Mark your calendars, folks. This is history. December 5, 1978--the infant Seattle Mariners trade Enrique Romo, Rick Jones and Todd McMillan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Odell Jones, Rafael Vasquez and... wait for it... 28-year-old shortstop Mario Mendoza, the inspiration of the infamous Mendoza Line standard (.200) for batting averages. To call Mendoza even a feather-weight hitter is generous. He had never seen regular playing time in Pittsburgh and never posted an OPS north of .580, so naturally, the Mariners make him the everyday shortstop.

What follows is B-horror movie material. Hide the children, please. Mendoza hit .198/.216/.249, the lowest on-base percentage from a player with at least 350 at bats since since Teddy Roosevelt stepped out of office. That's 70 years of baseball play, counting on my trusty abacus, and it hasn't been touched in the 25 years since. He walked 9 times, struck out 62 times and hammered, I mean tinkered, 13 extra base hits in 373 at bats. All that translates to an EQA of .164.

And you can't say his defense justified his roster spot. In 148 games, he commited 20 errors and was worth 3 fielding runs above the leage average shortstop. Overall, he was worth 0.2 wins above replacement. Ironically, that 95-loss season was the Mariners best season in their short three-year history.

Needless to say, his role was somewhat diminished the next season and the M's dumped him on the Rangers in the winter of 1980, exactly 2 years and a week to the day they had acquired him. Mendoza's only season as a regular was that fateful 1979.

8. Jim Presley, 1988.

Drafted and developed by the Mariners, Presley occupied the starting third base job beginning in 1984 and held onto it until 1989. From 1985 to 1987, Presley averaged 26 home runs and 93 RBIs. The wheels fell off the cart of Presley's, however, at the age of 27, the year one might have predicted his peak.

That 1988 Mariner lineup is an odd bunch. There are two professional hitters who posted on-base percentages over .400 (Alvin Davis and Ken Phelps) but five below .300 with Presley being the greatest out-maker of them all. He hit .230/.280/.355 with 36 walks and 40 extra base hits in his 544 at bats. He also grounded into a team-leading 14 double plays. This gives him an EQA of .232.

At the hot corner, Presley made 22 errors in 146 games. His defense was worth 16 runs below a league average third baseman. Thus, his overall worth was 0.2 wins above replacement for this Mariner squad that finished in the cellar, 35 and a half games behind the Bash Brothers.

In 1989, the Mariners introduced a new third basemen who would hit .240/.314/.304 in his first serious trial. Astonishing, no, but a diamond in the rough. Presley would lose his job to this 26-year-old rookie with a funny mustache and the name Edgar. If only he'd lost it a year earlier.

7. Dan Meyer, 1978.

Meyer had been a batting champ in the minor leagues, but wasn't given a full-time job in the majors until the Mariners picked him in the expansion draft. He was the original Mariner first baseman. I can't imagine there's many people in the world that would get very excited about being an Original Mariner. He had led the team in hits and runs batted in that inaugural season, but his follow-up was like a bad movie sequel.

At the age of 27, Meyer put together a season of .227/.264/.327 with 24 walks and 17 extra base hits in 444 at bats, one of the all time worst offensive seasons by a first basemen since integration. And yet for some reason, he led the team with six intentional walks--a quarter of his walks were intentional. His EQA was .225.

Defensively, Meyer committed 13 errors in 121 games at first base, and he was worth 4 runs below the league average. Overall, he was worth 0.2 wins above replacement, as the Mariners lost 104 games, finishing in last place by 35 games.

6. Larry Milbourne, 1978.

This was just a bad year for baseball in Seattle. Milbourne is one non-regular to make the list (I think). He was that bad. The M's had acquired him prior to the '77 season for 24-year-old, untried rookie Roy Thomas, who would later come back to Seattle. He was hardly adequate as a utility man that first season. His offensive numbers actual improved in 1978, but negligibly. However, his defense became a liability.

You might want to cover your eyes for this. At the age of 27, Milbourne hit .226/.254/.295 with 9 walks and 10 extra base hits. And you thought new Mariner Ramon Santiago was offensively challenged. He stole just 5 bases in 12 tries and also grounded into 7 double plays in his pinch-hitting role. More like pinch-out-maker. He may have invented several other ways to make outs that unfortunately were not recorded for posterity's sake. His EQA that year was .202.

Whereas his defense had been ever so slightly a positive in '77, it was ever so slightly a negative in '78. He saw 32 games at third base with one error, 23 games at shortstop with 4 errors and 15 games at second base with 4 errors. Why anyone would give a guy with a sub-.300 slugging percentage even 10 games at designated hitter is one of the great mysteries of the universe. He was worth 2 runs below an average fielder, and overall, 0.1 wins above replacement.

By some chance of fate, good karma, divine blessing or blind luck, Milbourne wound up on the World Series-bound Yankees just two years later. He hit 2 doubles in that series, one of them the only extra-base hit in the Game 5 Yankee victory. Go figure. The guy hit only 71 doubles his entire career of nearly 1000 games, but he hits 2 in that 6-game World Series, going .327/.375/.385 with 4 RBI in the '81 post season. How's that for Mr. Clutch.

To be continued... (I promise)...

2004-01-13T14:28:00.000-05:00

The longest winter

Today is just one of those days. What to write about? I can't get the image of the Brian Cox character from Adaptation out of my head:
"Nothing happens in baseball? Are you out of your f*cking mind? Free agents are signed every day. There's genocide, war, corruption. Every f*cking day, somewhere in the world, somebody sacrifices his life to save someone else. Every f*cking day, someone, somewhere makes a conscious decision to destroy someone else! People find love, people lose it! For Christ's sake, a child watches her mother beaten to death on the steps of a church. Someone gets traded. Somebody else betrays his best friend for a woman. If you can't find that stuff in baseball, then you, my friend, don't know crap about baseball! And why the F*CK are you wasting my two precious minutes with your blog? I don't have any use for it. I don't have any bloody use for it!"
Maybe I watch too many movies. Then again, it is January 13, the Mariners roster is more or less set, and pitchers and catchers don't report for another 38 days. This has been the longest winter. I so often crave to put together some well-crafted essay, at least something with a vague resemblance of a cohesive journal entry. Instead, I more often than not wind up with a random smattering of hurried trivial factoids. Creativity was so much easier when there were three Mariner weblogs and a game everyday. I'm such an insecure whiner...

Have you taken a gander at Joel Pineiro's splits from last year? That's a 3.35 ERA at Safeco Field and 4.31 on the road. In fact, Joel's road ERA has been creeping upwards each year since his debut: 3.78 in 2001 (33 innings), 3.95 in 2002 (96 innings) and 4.31 last year (96 innings). Over the past year and a half, his ERA is a full run and a half better at home than on the road. Makes me wonder if it isn't Pineiro, rather than Rafael Soriano, who should be dangled as trade bait. And on the subject, it makes me wonder, with the extreme nature of Safeco Field couldn't Management manipulate statistics to overvalue some players, i.e., Pineiro? Oh, but that would be conniving, deceptive and would tarnish the boy scout image of the organization. Oh well.

I had thought about taking the 40-man roster and whittling it down to a realistic 25-man roster, which seems to me the biggest challenge for the next two and a half months. But really, I can't improve upon Jason's Big Board. Jason, I thank you for that invaluable Mariner resource. It looks like Bavasi may need to go shopping for some more of that "inventory" he was talking about over the weekend to restock the Tacoma roster.

Jason picks a bench of Davis, Hansen, Bloomquist, Santiago and McCracken, which will strike fear only into the hearts of Mariner fans. I can just imagine it now: 9th inning. Mariners down by a run. Troy Percival on the mound. Rich Aurilia comes to the plate. No wait! Melvin goes to his bench. Here comes... Quinton McCracken. *sigh* On the bright side, Gonzalez and Ugueto don't make the cut. Neither does Pat Borders, but I don't see him anywhere on the chart.

I'm not too concerned about the bullpen, questions about Kaz Sasaki, aside. I wonder what's become of the Japanese team interested in him? I like the tandem of Soriano, Mateo and Guardado setting him up, though. I would prefer Soriano start the season in the rotation, but along with Mateo and Jarvis (if you really want to count Jarvis), the Mariners now have three starters for insurance should one or more in the rotation break down. Gil Meche nearly pitched 200 innings. Joel Pineiro pitched more innings than he ever had before. Ryan Franklin, at the age of 30, pitched as many innings as he had the rest of his entire major league career. The breakdown is inevitable. Having Rafael Soriano to be the first to step in will prove invaluable.

And I wonder, too... Dave mentions the cascading effect of losing Cameron. Have you ever played Jenga? Cameron makes me think of that piece on the very bottom you think you can pull out. You finally get up the guts to try it and the whole tower crashes down. Yeah, Cammie's defense is like that. So, will the Angels suffer a similar defensive conundrum in jostling their outfield and/or moving Darin Erstad? Erstad was an above average centerfielder in 2002. In 2003, with Erstad missing much of the season, the Angels had one of the leagues most extreme flyball pitching staffs, and the ERA of their starters--for the most part, the very same group--ballooned from 4.00 to 4.90. The whole staff went from 3.69 to 4.28. In Colon, they've signed another flyball pitcher whose strikeout rate is not as impressive as it once was. Disaster in the making? Probably not, but something to think about.

I also wonder, with as old, old school as the Mariners are these days, how the mantra "pitching and defense win championships" is curiously missing from the rhetoric of both Management and Media.

Last week, Kevin Baxter of Baseball America reported the status of Cuban defectors Maels Rodriguez and Yobel Duenas. Rodriguez is a 24-year-old right handed pitcher, while Duenas is a 31-year-old second baseman and outfielder. According to the article:
Rodriguez holds the single-season Cuban strikeout record, having fanned 263 in 178-1/3 innings three years ago and he is the only pitcher in post-revolution Cuba history to throw a perfect game. [Agent Henry] Vilar said a half-dozen teams, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Mariners and Rangers, are interested in him. Vilar has used the four-year $32 million contract the Yankees gave fellow defector Jose Contreras in December 2002 as a measuring stick for Rodriguez' asking price.
Excellent. Just what the Mariners need. Yet another right-handed pitcher. And of the Cuban, four-year, $32 million variety. Great. Just great. That'd be a wonderful signing, Bill. What are you waiting for. (Aaacck!)

2004-01-12T10:09:00.000-05:00

Can we start playing the games already?

I suppose today is the first day of the rest of your baseball rooting life, that is, if it so happens that your team is the one with a monkey for a mascot. Halofan is buying drinks. I could use a particularly stiff drink.

I was trying to think of the last marquee free agent Anaheim signed (other than Bartolo Colon). That Bavasi-induced plague Mo Vaughn?

I realize Bob Finnigan's Sunday column has already been fisked and shredded elsewhere, but one comment in partcular stands out to me:
"The anticipated loss of Mike Cameron required someone to play center field. Melvin's call was to have Ichiro remain in right, and how could anyone argue with the manager's extreme reluctance 'to move the best right fielder in the league, if not in the game'" (Times).
Okay, I'll dare to argue and break the news to Bob that Ichiro is not even the best outfielder in the division anymore.

My gut is trying to tell me that the Angels have just wrapped up the division right here. However, me and my gut, we go way back, and my gut just ain't that trustworthy. Despite the cloud of gloom I'm so willing to succumb to, I have to side with both Derek and Rob here.

Just look at the standings from last year. The Angels finished 19 games out of first. Nineteen games! It takes an extraordinary stretch of the imagination to say that the combined losses in Oakland of Tejada and Foulke with the additions in Anaheim of Colon and Guerrero eliminate that 19-game margin. Furthermore, Derek reminds us that the Mariners were the unluckiest team in the AL last year (unlucky, or victimized by a rookie manager, or maybe something else we don't yet know). The Mariners, according to their runs scored and allowed, were the best team in baseball last year, and it's not like they've lost Edgar Martinez.

The M's run differential last year predicted that they should have won 99 games. To say they are now no better than an 85-win team means that Bavasi's ceaseless tinkering has cost the team 14 games in the standings. Now, that's just a bit overdramatic.

Those days I've been comparing the wins-above-replacement-player, I've been going about it all wrong. The 2004 M's would be an 87-win team only if they were unlucky by 6 games again. Eliminate luck from the equation all together, and Bavasi's blundering moves total up to the Mariners bad luck of '03: They're still a 93-win team. And that, my friends, is still a pennant-contending team.

And have you seen the characters who may be filling out the Angels bench? Halofan speculates Wil Nieves (.243 EQA in Triple-A last year, .202 adjusted for major leagues), Rob Quinlan (.276 EQA in Triple-A, .229 adjusted for major leagues), Jeff DaVanon (.287 EQA), Chone Figgins (.258 EQA in 248 AB) and Alfredo Amezaga (.295 EQA in Triple-A, .245 adjusted). The Mariners may have the Bench of Doom resembling extras from Michael Jackson's Thriller video, but these guys aren't far behind.

Am I saying the Angels are still a third-place team? Nope. Am I saying the Mariners are going to win the pennant? Nope. Am I saying Bavasi has improved the Mariners? Not even close. What I am saying is that the evidence would show that 2004 in the American League West will be the three-team race that we were promised last year. While signing Vlad doesn't bring the Angels the pennant on a silver platter, it does make the division exponentially more interesting. And as Derek notes, if Lady Luck were to smile ever so subtly on the Mariners this year, the odds are not quite so bad.

Oh, and am I the only one who will be feeling a bit of guilty glee that Jeff Nelson will be throwing his increasingly hittable frisbees in Texas blue? According to Ranger GM John Hart, "He has pitched in the seventh and eighth inning for a number of years, and he's been outstanding." Riiight. Outstanding at allowing inherited runners to score. Welcome back to the West, Nellie.

And lastly, over the weekend, Carlos Lugo of Baseball Prospectus gave a wrap-up of the Winter Dominican League (it is a premium article, and I whole-heartedly endorse a Baseball Prospectus subscription). His choice for best pitcher in the league? Hot rumormongering subject Rafael Soriano who went 1-1 in 7 starts with an infintismally microscopic ERA of 0.21. According to Lugo, "The guy allowed just 19 hits and TWO extra-base hits in 42.1 innings pitched. It wasn't his teammates either, as he pitched in front of the league's worst defense according to defensive efficiency ratings. The Lions featured one of the worst offensive groups in the history of the league, scoring just 3.3 runs per game." Talk about bad luck.

If Bavasi trades him, and the Mariners don't receive Barry Bonds in return, I'm signing the petition.

2004-01-09T10:36:00.000-05:00

We are not alone in the universe

Deep breaths. I am not Chicken Little. The sky is not falling.

I do like Rich Aurilia. I really do. I'll be rooting for him. Hard. If his quotes in today's P-I are any indication, he's just the sort of character the rabid, subjective fan in me will get hooked into. Bringing in Aurilia is not a bad move. It's just not an improvement, either. And I liked Carlos Guillen, too. I rooted for him, even as he didn't square up to a grounder and it bounded off his glove into left field.

Though, Aurilia has hit .303/.354/.496 in the month of September over the last three seasons. That will prove a welcome sight in eight months.

I'm a little disappointed at the return for Guillen: Ramon Santiago (quite possibly the worst shortstop in baseball last year, worse, though prettier, than Deivi Cruz) and Juan Gonzalez. No, not that Juan Gonzalez, silly. This one. I'm supposing that a team photo of the World Champion 1984 Tigers autographed by the current coaching staff was too steep an asking price.

Take a spin around the baseballogosphere and you'll find we Mariner fans are not alone in our winter of discontent. There are more than a number of teams that either won their division last year or just missed the playoffs that seem to be lost this off-season, patching holes they don't have or simply paralyzed altogether.

Consider Oakland: They're replacing Miguel Tejada with Bobby Crosby. Their wiffle ball outfield of Terrence Long, Chris Singleton and Jermaine Dye is now Bobby Kielty, Mark Kotsay and Jermaine Dye. Closing duties have passed from Keith Foulke to Arthur Rhodes. The A's don't scare me right now. What does scare me is what Billy Beane may yet have up his sleeve.

Consider the Twins: They've lost the backend of their bullpen, and brought in... Joe Nathan. A.J. Pierzynski gets replaced by rookie Joe Mauer. They still haven't addressed the blackhole that is their current keystone combo. They're lucky they play in the AL Central.

Consider the White Sox: They finished four games behind the Twins and have improved themselves by... um, losing Roberto Alomar and picking up Juan Uribe. They have yet to find replacements for Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett. Again, this is the AL Central, but the Sox sure aren't picking up any ground on the Twins, thus far.

Consider the Braves: They won the division by 10 games. Gary Sheffield is out. J.D. Drew is in. Javier Lopez is out. Henry Blanco is in. Greg Maddux is out. Shane Reynolds is out, and only God knows how you replace talent like that. Then again, John Schuerholz is baseball's answer to MacGyver. Give him a box a toothpicks, some silly putty, a banana and Leo Mazzone, and just hand Atlanta another flag.

Consider the Marlins: Derrek Lee and Mark Redman are gone. So is Braden Looper. Pudge Rodriguez and Ugueth Urbina are still available to the highest bidder, but that won't be the Marlins in either case. It's hard to see the current World Champs improved.

Consider Houston: They attempt to gain their one game on the Cubs by losing Billy Wagner and acquiring Andy Pettite. That's basically it.

Consider St. Louis: They finish three games back, and they address their pitching woes by adding Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright. Nobody loves super-subs more than Lou Piniella quite like Tony LaRussa, and Eli Marrero, Eddy Perez and Miguel Cairo are all gone. Reggie Sanders is in for J.D. Drew. Oh, and Tino's gone, but that won't be quite so bad, that is unless Steve Cox really is their answer for first base.

Lastly consider the Dodgers: Did any contender last year have such a lopsided team? And how do they address that issue come winter? Trade the best pitcher to Yankees, which frees up significant payroll, and then... stall in the quagmire of sale red-tape. All the while, the most fearsome hitter on the market is still unattached. It's like you go to a party, and lo and behold, Keira Knightly shows up--alone. An hour into the party, sure a couple of guys have said hello, but she's obviously unimpressed. Hell, go talk to her. You're charming, witty and loaded with cash to burn. What have you got to lose?

So no, Mariner fans, we indeed are not alone. And if you meet up with a Cardinal fan or Dodger fan today, give them a hug. It'll make you feel better.

2004-01-08T11:01:00.000-05:00

[insert clever, witty title here]

It's been brought to my attention that I should avoid borrowing William Safire headlines from the day before. What a tragic coincidence. And I was so proud of that post, too. But love him or hate him, that is a rather humorous, silly slip-up by Howard Dean.

Now just a thought or two as I ponder just how much Aurilia for Guillen really is a wash. Carlos Guillen made 485 trips to the plate last year. He averaged 4.0 pitches per plate appearance and posted an on-base percentage of .359. His ground ball/fly ball ratio was 1.23, and he further grounded in 12 double plays. Rich Aurilia made 545 trips to the plate last year. He averaged 3.5 pitches per plate appearance and posted an on-base percentage of .325. His ground ball to fly ball ratio was 0.88, yet he still managed to ground into 18 double plays, just out of the top ten in the National League.

If my ever so subjective memory serves me well (and that's ever so debatable), I often remember Carlos having Edgar-like epic 10-12-pitch at bats, working the count full, then fouling off pitch after pitch after pitch, as Ron Fairly gushing over how what marvelous at bats Carlos had.

Unless one of Bob Melvin's New Year's resolutions is being more creative and flexible, Rich Aurilia will be the Mariners #2 hitter in 2004. Because, in Melvin's world the 2-hole is for shortstops and only the shortstop. This means we can expect Aurilia to be hitting behind Spiezio (?), whatever hacktastic catcher starts that day and Ichiro. As Aurilia sees fewer pitches per at bat than Carlos, I expect Ichiro to have less stolen base opportunities. His double play scenarios will be less hitting behind Ichiro rather than JT Snow, but his fly balls will die in Safeco Field. The evidence suggests Aurilia is not a 2-hole hitter, and certainly not a prime hitter to sandwich between Ichiro and Edgar or Boone. I much prefer a batter who sees a lot of pitches and makes a lot of contact, who moves the runner on base along and avoids getting himself out as well, in the 2-hole. But then, I'd rather see those guys up and down the lineup.

While no one expects Guillen to play everyday, Rich Aurilia himself is three years removed from his last 150-game season. Today, John Hickey informs us that Rich Aurilia suffered a condition last year known as "dry eye," and that Aurilia is fully recovered as evidenced in his .242 batting average the first half of the season and .312 the second half.

But wait just a minute. If I'm going to stop and say everything's a-okay just because of his batting average, well then, as Steven Goldman writes, "I'm a macaw named Doris."

Before the All-Star break, Aurilia collected 316 at bats and hit .256/.307/.402. None too pretty at all. He struck out 42 times (once every 7.5 times), while walking 23 times (once every 13.7 at bats) and hit 28 extra base hits (one every 11.3 at bats). After the All-Star break, Aurilia collected just 189 at bats and hit .312/.355/.423. He made more contact with less power. He struck out 40 times (once every 4.7 at bats), while walking only 13 times (once every 14.5 times) and hit 12 extra base hits (one every 15.8 at bats). So after the All-Star break, when Hickey asserts Aurilia's eye problem had resolved, Aurilia's strikeout rate increased dramatically, his walk rate dropped, and his rate of extra base hits dropped. Only his batting average rose dramatically (which further increased his OBP and SLG), but that difference is 60 more singles in 1000 at bats, or 1.5 more over the course of a single week. More strikeouts, less walks equals bad eyes to me. From the evidence of his All-Star break splits, I can't justify asserting that Aurilia's eye problems are resolved.

One further trivial aspect of Aurilia that gives me the willies is this: Away from Pacbell the last three years Aurilia has hit .267/.317/.460. Color me not overwhelmed.

At best, these moves are a wash. More realistically, however, it's a downgrade. And what's the point of consistently making moves that are at best a wash? *sigh*

2004-01-07T10:26:00.000-05:00

Who is this who darkens my counsel with words without knowledge?*

In considering the Mariners front office moves this winter, why do I feel like Job? If you know your Hebrew poetry, Job was a guy at the top of his game--wealthy, successful. You might say he'd just won 116 games in the regular season with a World Series ring to boot. Then all of a sudden, Job experiences the mother of all bad days. His friends come around and encourage him by telling him it's all his fault. He deserves his misery for some reason or another. If he'd just be honest with himself, he'd see the truth. Job instead wallows in his misery (in true Mariner fan style), defends his own innocence and blames Yahweh. If only Yahweh would give him a face to face, he'd give him a piece or two of his mind. Thirty-eight chapters into the poem Yahweh shows up and does his best Bobby DeNiro Taxi Driver impression: "You talkin' to me?" The all-powerful deity gives the whiney, pithy man some cosmic perspective.

The deal sending my favorite Mariner to hate Jeff Cirillo and Tacoma setup man Brian Sweeney to San Diego in exchange for Kevin Jarvis (a pitcher the Mariners don't need, who now becomes baseball's second highest overpaid long-relief swingman behind Jose Contreras), Wiki Gonzalez (a catcher the Mariners don't need, whose bat matches his first name like none other), Dave Hanson (yet another feather-weight pinch hitter the Mariners don't need), a football player and roughly the gross national product of a small, third-world nation has been completed. [Yes, I too can write Gammons-esque paragraph-sentences!]

Bill Bavasi is quoted in the AP article as saying, "We think this deal gives us flexibility in 2004 and 2005 that we did not have with Jeff on the roster, and helps fill some needs on our big league club" (emphasis added).

Just what "need" does Kevin Jarvis fill? Including Rafael Soriano, the M's already have six starters. There are adequate arms galore in San Antonio and Tacoma. The only need pitching wise that the M's have is an inexpensive, effective left-handed reliever.

Just what "need" does Weaky Gonzalez fill? He's under contract for $1.7 million and has a career on-base percentage of .312. The Mariners already have three catchers under contract for next year. None of them can hit, either.

Just what "need" does Dave Hansen fill? He has a career .365 on-base percentage, but he's 35 years old--13 years of big league experience--with a grand total of 122 at bats against left-handed pitching. Hello Jarrod Washburn, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Mark Redman, Arthur Rhodes and the rest of the A's bullpen.

Just what "need" does Vince Faison fill on the big league roster? In 2002 Baseball Prospectus said, "A tools draftee, Faison is [a] great athlete who has problems with virtually every phase of the game and is in danger of falling off the radar." That was two years ago. Last year in Double-A, at age 22, he slugged .298 as a corner outfielder and struck out 116 times in 119 games, or once every three at bats.

Like Job, I shake my fist at the heavens, crying out "Where is the justice? What is the method in this madness?"

For some reason, there is a corner in my mind that refuses to surrender to the negative pessimism that comes so naturally in the face of such nonsensical front office blundering. There is this small corner of my mind that still clings to hope in some Master Plan, some sort of Masterpiece, that resides under the tightest lock and key in the offices at First and Royal Brougham, too genius for my puny fan mind to comprehend. The Smeagol in me wants to be good. The Gollum in me says Management is a bunch of fat, stupid, lazy hobbitsess. Why, oh why, do I do this to myself? Why do I half expect to receive an email one day from Bavasi beginning with, "Who is this that darkens my counsel..."?

Some other gem quotes:
"There is cash involved," said Bavasi, who did not give a figure. "It is a financial wash for us. The settlement does not affect us one way or another in our 2004 or 2005 budgets. I prefer not to get into specifics, the figures can be confusing" (Finnigan, Times).
Humor me, Bill. I'm a big boy. The scary part is it sounds as if he's the one confused by the finances, and he's the general manager.

On a completely different topic all together, but certainly belongs in the most-bizarre-turns-of-phrase category of quotes:
"We're edging, ponderously edging closer," [Rich Aurilia's agent Barry] Axelrod said last night. "We've agree [sic] to what we want to do. But we got off to a slow start" (Hickey, P-I).
According to Merriam-Webster, "ponderous" means "of very great weight" or "unwieldy or clumsy because of its great size" or "oppressively or unpleasantly dull; lifeless." So, I really have no idea what Axelrod is saying here.

But back to the Padres deal, again in the AP article, San Diego GM Kevin Towers says:
"I think this is a great gamble," Towers said. "This guy [Cirillo] has a chance to turn his career around and maybe create value. The guys we traded, we didn't see future value."
Now that just sets my heart aflutter with rays of hopeful sunshine. Fat, stupid, lazy hobbitsess.

Padres blogger Geoff Young over at Ducksnorts has this to say:
I could understand looking to shed Cirillo's contract, but they didn't even manage to do that. And for whatever else anyone may think of Cirillo, at least the guy used to be good. Kevin Jarvis and Wiki Gonzalez used to be, um, Padres... I don't know what to say. I didn't think the trade looked that great from the Pads' perspective, but looking at it from the other side, I'm a little horrified by this. I would like to offer M's fans some words of comfort here, but I really can't. So I'll be graceful and say a quiet thanks.
He's horrified? What about poor, little me? Um, your welcome, I guess.

Updating the WARP Table of Doom, here's where the Mariners stand today prior to any inevitable shortstop shenanigans:

Player lost    WARP  Player gained     WARP

John Mabry      0.5  Raul Ibanez        3.7

Rey Sanchez     1.3  Scott Spiezio      3.7

Mike Cameron    8.3  Quinton McCracken -0.8

Greg Colbrunn   0.3  Wiki Gonzalez      0.1

Mark McLemore   1.8  Dave Hansen        0.9

Jeff Cirillo   -0.2  

                ---                     ---

TOTAL          12.0                     7.6



DIFFERENCE     -4.4

So, the 93-win 2003 Mariners are now the 88-and-a-half win Mariners. And that doesn't account for the rich man's version of Giovanni Carrera now set to pick up Gil Meche's starts once his arm falls off.

Sometimes I think Job would have felt right at home amongst a group of Mariner fans.

UPDATE: I just found this analysis by Geoff on Faison from two years ago:
Offensively, the big leaguers he most reminds me of are guys like Terrance Long, Al Martin, and Michael Tucker. But he's got a lot of work to do before he reaches their levels.
Yuck.

2004-01-06T10:02:00.000-05:00

Hall of Fame: Hot Corner

So today's the big day that the writers' association announces to the rest of the world whose careers they deem worthy of immortalization. Yesterday, Baseball Prospectus announced the results of the Internet Hall of Fame voting: Eckersley and Molitor. Today, Larry Stone offers his ballot, and like me, he maxed it out with a full ten names. However, I find choosing Andre Dawson over Alan Trammell and Jack Morris over Dave Stieb just a tad dubious. But thus is the nature of and beauty of baseball discussions. One name surely to be announced today is...

Paul Molitor

CAREER 1978-98

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2683 10835 .306 .369 .448 234  953 1094 1244 504 131 79% .626 1869

     10286 .268 .341 .417 305  866 1111 1669 170  85 67% .518 1479

For the record, Molitor played 1174 games at designated hitter, 791 at third base and 400 and second. Yeah, yeah--3000 career hits. How about 500 career stolen bases at nearly an 80% clip from a fragile designated hitter? And did you know that only eight designated hitters have stolen 20 or more bases in a single season? Molitor did it four separate occasions.

Ed. note: This is as far as I got this morning. I missed my usual train, making me 45 minutes later than usual to work. I'm behind on my current project. I was going to wrap it up this evening. Meanwhile, Molitor and Eckersley have been announced as the 2004 Hall inductees, and Jay Jaffe, of the Futility Infielder has written a fantastic article for Baseball Prospectus, applying BP's metrics to this year's ballot's hitters. I tend to write what I like to read. So, I'm out; I'm done. Jay does an excellent analysis considering park factors, era and league adjustments, versus the average Hall of Famer by position--all more thorough and succinct than I've been doing.

So tomorrow I return you to our regular scheduled Mariner acquisitions (as the writer's shoulders slump in resignation).

2004-01-05T10:52:00.000-05:00

Hall of Fame: Shortstops

Dave Concepcion

CAREER (1970-88)

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2488 8723 .267 .322 .357 101 538 736 1186 321 109 75% .425  999

     8584 .249 .305 .325  61 454 685 1041 238 105 69% .365  862

Can you remember when shortstops were not expected to hit? Can you remember a day when shortstops were 98-pound weaklings and not $252-million-men? Can you remember when Roy Smalley, Garry Templeton, U.L. Washington, Craig Reynolds, Rick Burleson and Ozzie Smith turned two? Yes, there was indeed a day when Deivi Cruz and Neifi Perez might not have been punchlines but simply just below the norm.

In an era when an offensive behemoth like Alex Rodriguez rules the position, Concepcion's career batting line looks mighty puny. Yet, in light of his own contemporaries, Concepcion not only did everything well, he was a more than adequate offensive force. He hit for a higher average, got on base more often, hit for more power with more home runs and extra base hits, walked more often, was a better baserunner stealing more bases with a better success rate and created 16% more runs than his contemporary shortstops. Moreover, in nine postseason series including four World Series, Concepcion hit .297/.333/.455 in 101 AB. Subjectively, in his 19-year career, he was elected to nine All-Star games (starting five), won five Gold Gloves and finished in the top ten of MVP voting twice.

PEAK SEASON 1974 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 160  594 .281 .335 .397  14  40  44   79  41   6 87% .530   80

      567 .248 .305 .311   3  25  46   65  17   6 74% .349   55

At his best, Concepcion provided power and speed at a position requiring little more than a glove. He hit nearly five times as many home runs and stole twice as many bases (at a much higher success rate) than the average shortstop. And Riverfront Stadium was ever so slightly a pitcher's park. Only Bert Campaneris had a better season at the plate for a shortstop, but Campaneris wasn't near Concepcion's equal with the glove.

3-YEAR PEAK 1977-79 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 153  576 .284 .343 .397  10  41  54   78  24   8 75% .505   78

      557 .258 .306 .337   3  32  38   62  18   8 70% .371   58

Concepcion's three-year peak occurred during the waning years of the Big Red Machine. His baserunning had slowed a bit by this time, but he was still outperforming his fellow shortstops while providing golden defense. By the late seventies, Riverfront was a neutral park slightly favoring hitters. During this period, only Garry Templeton put together better offensive numbers, but like Campaneris, he was not Concepcion's equal defensively.

5-YEAR PEAK 1974-1978 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 152  563 .282 .335 .386   8  39  46   71  29   8 79% .493   73

      541 .250 .304 .322   3  28  42   61  16   6 72% .360   54

During his five-year peak, Concepcion was arguably the best hitting shortstop of the day. Of course, that is about on par with choosing the best boy band of the late nineties. The standard just isn't that high.

From the Prospectus metrics, Concepcion put together a career EQA (adjusted for all-time) of .257, contributed 94 wins above replacement level (again, adjusted for all-time) with 168 fielding runs above average. Against the context of his era, an argument for Dave Concepcion can be made, but depending on my mood and day of the week, I could argue either side of it. Today, while he was a fine shortstop, All-Star caliber, and he should be remembered as such, his production above the league average doesn't quite justify Hall of Fame status.

Alan Trammell

CAREER 1977-96

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2293  8288 .285 .352 .415 185  652  850  874 236 109 68% .558 1246

      7944 .257 .311 .354 107  505  611 1029 156  93 63% .401  884

No one suffers more from the modern offensive redefinition of shortstop than Alan Trammell. Barry Larkin will suffer the same fate. Mark my words. There's no reason we should even be having this conversation, really. Alan Trammell is a first ballot Hall of Famer. Ozzie Smith is in the Hall. Robin Yount is in the Hall. No one's going to give Cal Ripken any grief on the way to the Hall. Alan Trammell is in the same company. So where's the noise for his support? Because I'm just not hearing it.

Trammell hit for a higher batting average, got on base 13% more often than his peer shortstops. He hit for more power. He stole more bases with a better success rate. He walked just as often as he struck out and at a much superior rate than his contemporaries. Most importantly, he created 41% more runs than the league average shortstop over his career. You like clutch? He hit .303/.444/.588 in three postseason series--51 AB. He drove in all four of the Tigers' runs in Game 4 of the 1984 World Series and won the Series MVP that year with a record 9 hits in a five-game series. Subjectively, he went to six All-Star Games, won four gold gloves (mostly with his bat, though) and finsihed in the top ten in MVP voting three times.

PEAK SEASON 1987

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 151   597 .343 .402 .551  28   65   60   47  21   2 91% .757  137

       527 .272 .328 .388  10   37   43   69  15   7 68% .446   68

Quite frankly, Trammell was robbed of the most valuable player by George Bell. It was a mighty close vote. Both Trammell and Bell garnered first place on every ballot. Bell had 16 first place votes and 332 total points to Trammell's 12 first place votes and 311 total points. Bell hit .308/.352/.605 and led the league in RBI and extra base hits while hitting in Exhibition Stadium, a ballpark that slightly favored hitters. Trammell hit .343/.402/.551 in Tiger Stadium, which was most certainly a pitcher's park. Bell created 43% more runs than the league average left fielder. Trammell created 101% more runs than the average shortstop. Bell was worth 7.9 wins above replacement; Trammell was worth 11.3. Have I beaten the horse dead yet? Who would you have chosen? Oh, and anybody who steals more than 20 bases at a rate of better than 90% is really, really good.

3-YEAR PEAK 1986-88

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 143   546 .311 .375 .497  21   55   55   50  18   6 75% .691  104

       508 .264 .320 .373   8   35   40   66  12   6 65% .435   61

Well, not every year is 1987, but '86 and '88 aren't too shabby either. Trammell's offensive numbers are excellent by even the league standards, much more so the position league average. No either shortstop comes even close to that production over that three-year period, and Trammell easily was one of the top ten best hitters in all of baseball.

5-YEAR PEAK 1984-88

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 144   559 .300 .363 .466  18   52   55   57  17   7 70% .643   97

       527 .261 .315 .363   7   34   40   68  12   6 65% .420   61

Trammell was a .300 hitter over his five best seasons with an on-base percentage above .360. He hit more than twice as many home runs, walked more often and struck out less than his contemporary shortstops. He did this in a ballpark that played neutral through the middle of the decade but favored pitcher's to an extreme degree starting in 1987.

While his defensive was never outstanding, it was never a liability to his team. His career EQA is .280 (adjusted all-time). He was worth 106.3 wins above replacement (adjusted all-time) to his Tigers, and his defense was worth 62 fielding runs above average. Please, justify to me why Alan Trammell is not already in the Hall of Fame.

2004-01-02T11:14:00.000-05:00

Hall of Fame: I Love the 80's Second Base Style

Juan Samuel

CAREER 1983-98

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

1720  6081 .259 .315 .420 161  550  440 1442 396 143 73% .490  819

      6098 .265 .334 .381 109  439  616  916 204  88 70% .484  799

It's become fashionable as of late to compare Alfonso Soriano to three-time All-Star Juan Samuel. On the surface they are eerily similar: power/speed guys with questionable defense and itchy trigger fingers in the batter's box. It's a rare combination of strengths and weaknesses that defies the conventions of baseball's traditional, specialized roles--too free-swinging to leadoff, too fast for the middle of the lineup, at least according to "The Rules." Samuel's career started with a bang, but like the hubris of a Greek tragic hero, that pesky skill of plate discipline would plague him to mediocrity. His career line is little more than league average with his second base contemporaries. Most notable are his below average on-base percentage and above average slugging. Like Soriano, Samuel rarely, if ever, saw a pitch he didn't like.

PEAK SEASON 1984

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 160   701 .272 .307 .442  15   70   28  168  72  15 83% .550  100

       674 .263 .322 .360   7   45   58   91  29  11 73% .462   81

Take your pick between 1984 and 1987. In 1987, Samuel scored 113 runs and drove in 100 with 28 home runs, topped 60 walks for the only time in his career and led the league in extra base hits with 80. I choose '84 as the league was a bit tougher on offensive numbers prior to the post-'87 power binge. He also stole twice as many bases in 1984 with an excellent success rate of 83%. In fact, he set the rookie record for stolen bases this year. Moreover, beginning with '84, Samuel was the first major leaguer to accomplish a quadruple double, of sorts, in his first four major league seasons: double digits in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases. Despite all this, he was still just the fifth best second baseman offensively in 1984.

3-YEAR PEAK 1984-86

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 155   652 .268 .304 .442  17   66   29  150  56  16 78% .510   89

       643 .267 .332 .367   8   43   61   87  25  11 70% .480   81

In his peak seasons, Samuel was slugging twice as many home runs and stealing twice as many bases as the average second baseman while walking half as often. He did this while playing half his games in Veteran Stadium, which favored hitters through the mid to late eighties.

5-YEAR PEAK 1984-88

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 157   648 .264 .309 .442  18   66   37  153  47  15 76% .505   90

       641 .265 .331 .369   9   44   62   89  23  10 70% .471   80

After hovering around .300 for three consecutive years, Samuel's OBP jumped to .336 with a career high 60 walks (in 660 AB). It would be the only time his OBP would .330 while he played full-time. It's none too pretty to see that at his best, Samuel could get on base just 3 out of 10 tries. Yet despite that, thanks to his power and speed, he still managed to create 13% more runs than the average second baseman.

Samuel was done as a full-time player in 1991 at the age of 30. He still hung around the league as a spare outfielder and DH for another eight years, though. For Alfonso Soriano's sake, one can only hope his promising career can avoid the mediocrity of Samuel's. (For his exploits of October 21, 2001, however, Soriano deserves much worse, but I digress.)If there's a moral to the story of Juan Samuel's career, kids, it's plate discipline.

In addition, Samuel had a career EQA of .268, was worth 53.9 wins above a replacement level second baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 85 runs below replacement. I honestly can't come up with one good defense of why Juan Samuel can be a Hall of Famer.

Ryne Sandberg

And to think the Phillies traded Sandberg to keep Samuel. That has to be a dark day in Phillie history. Sandberg and Samuel could make an interesting compare/contrast study. They were born nine months apart, both developed by Philadelphia, made their debuts two years apart. One became the poster child for the talented free swinger who couldn't steal first base. The other became the elite second baseman of a generation.

CAREER 1981-94, 1996-97

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2164  8385 .285 .344 .452 282  761  761 1260 344 107 76% .566 1335

      8043 .263 .330 .373 130  556  773 1168 250 111 69% .467 1014

Ryne Sandberg defined second base for the eighties and well into the next decade. He was selected to the All-Star team 10 consecutive seasons. He won nine straight gold gloves. He placed top ten in the MVP balloting three times and won it once. Just those merits alone leave me scratching my head wondering why we even need this discussion this year. He should have been enshrined last year. In his 16-year career, he hit .285--well above average. His career .344 on-base percentage, while nothing outstanding, still stands above his peers. He slugged nearly twice as many home runs than his contemporary second basemen. His walks and strikeouts are right at average. He was a far superior baserunner with 100 more stolen bases over his career and fewer caught stealing than the average. In addition, he created 32% more runs than the league average second baseman over his career.

PEAK SEASON 1984

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 156   636 .314 .367 .520  19   74   52  101  32   7 82% .680  126

       582 .263 .322 .360   6   39   50   78  25   9 74% .462   70

Like Samuel and Orwell, Sandberg's best season was 1984, and it was Sandberg who was the best at his position that season, as he earned the most valuable player honors. He led the league in triples. His .887 OPS was third in the league. He placed second in hits, second in extra base hits and second in total bases. He created 80% more runs than the average second baseman. He also hit .368/.455/.474 in 19 AB in the National League Championship Series, which the Cubs lost to the Padres in five games.

3-YEAR PEAK 1990-92

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 157   604 .300 .368 .519  31   66   68   82  21   7 75% .671  117

       568 .262 .331 .372   9   39   58   84  17   8 69% .484   72

While Sandberg's best single season was 1984, his three-year peak occurs some years later, at ages 30-32. He wasn't the same baserunner later in his career, but despite the power spike of the era, Sandberg was slugging three times as many home runs as the average second baseman. Of course, playing in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field didn't hurt one bit.

5-YEAR PEAK 1989-93

   G    AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 149   575 .300 .364 .497  26   58   60   79  18   6 76% .647  106

       540 .262 .330 .371   9   37   53   78  15   7 69% .477   68

At his peak, Sandberg's game was vastly superior to his contemporaries, creating 56% more runs for his team. The Cubs reached the NLCS again in 1989 where Sandberg hit .400/.455/.800 in 20 AB, and still they lost in five games, this time to the Giants.

For his career, Sandberg put together seven seasons that can be called excellent and just two (his first and last) that could arguably be called poor. In addition, Sandberg had a career EQA of .282, was worth 112.7 wins above a replacement level second baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 95 runs above replacement. Ryno is a definite Hall of Famer.

And Jim Caple has my back on choosing a full ballot this year. Furthermore, Rich Lederer makes the indisputable case for Bert Blyleven.

2004-01-01T19:34:00.000-05:00

The great Hall calleth

Friday is the final day for voting in the Internet Hall of Fame. Here's my ballot, and I'll continue to justify my choices throughout the month:

Bert Blyleven
Dennis Eckersley
Rich Gossage
Keith Hernandez
Paul Molitor
Jim Rice
Ryne Sandberg
Lee Smith
Bruce Sutter
Alan Trammell

Hmm... Relievers. I really, really want to fit Dave Stieb in there, too, but you only get 10 slots. Maybe I'm being generous. Regardless, I reserve the right to change my mind by the time I'm through with my commentary.

2004-01-01T18:27:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year!

Somewhere the sun is shining. Somewhere the grass is green. Somewhere a bat cracks against a ball, sending it soaring. Somewhere children are cheering. Somewhere fans proclaim 2004 the Year of the Mariners. Let me know where exactly that is. I haven't found it yet in my atlas.

I truly hope your Christmas was merry and your holidays happy. Mine were at once both truly wonderful and horrible as only time with family can be. Wonderful in the obvious ways of spending time with loved ones I see far too rarely and reconnecting with old friends. Horrible that it was too short, among other reasons better left unsaid in this forum.

One particular highlight was watching a news segment my brother Jason had recorded from his local Oklahoma City CBS newscast. Jason's a 22-year-old nursing student at the University of Oklahoma and happens to share the very same name as a certain Hesiman Trophy winner. In true Lebowski fashion, the local news thought it'd be great to interview the REAL Jason White. Now lil' bro was out taking a final when the news crew came knocking on his door, so they spent an hour interviewing his roommate. If you only knew Barnes you'd realize what classic stuff this could be. Apparently, they receive around ten calls a day at the house for the OTHER Jason, and they played a phone message of an eager fan from Wisconsin on the news cast. One of the highest forms of entertainment at the house is saving and playing back all such congratulatory, football-related messages left throughout the day. Even one of the team's wide receivers has called the house looking for QB Jason. Lil' Bro says he's had a class with said receiver and he's not that bright. All in all, 'twas a fun family moment, and I'm quite proud.

I must have been good this year. Santa brought a brand new library of books and a handful of DVDs. Two extended families and the only clothes I received was a scarf. I've no idea how that happened. It was also the first Christmas I can ever remember that I don't need to return anything. Mom absolutely loves themes. My Yankee-lovin' sister (God bless her; I convinced her to get me a Red Sox cap) got nearly every baseball movie ever put to film along with a number of Yankee memorabelia. Mine was baseball books--Giamatti's Take Time for Paradise that I've been looking for, Larry Dierker's book, an old hardback of No Cheering in the Press Box, among others. I also got some vintage hardbacks of Roth's Great American Novel and Hemingway's For Whom the Bell Tolls in addition to some Nick Hornby. To top that, I found a copy of Flannery O'Connor's complete short stories at the used book store for $1.45. That was one of those rare Holy Grail moments. Anyway, I'll keep busy reading for awhile.

So I come home, and what's the deal with all the Carlos Guillen hatin'? I realize that asking 162 games from Carlos in a year is ridiculous, but how does that alone justify the front office's bulldog determination to replace him? All the potential shortstop upgrades have been taken. Colorado? Milwaukee? Detroit? Prospects? Aaaaaahhhh!!!!! (I just had to let that out.)

Also, I feel compelled to share my Best Buy fiasco as a sort of public service announcement for those who may not be aware of a certain little kink. Santa also brought me a Best Buy gift card, so I braved the after-Christmas mob and took it with me to the store in Tulsa. The Seven Samurai had been on my list and my father-in-law had relayed to me that he had seen a Kurosawa boxed set there. Thus, I was curious to know what else might be in this set. "Is that anime?" replies the blue shirt. The kid was asking to get smacked around. They don't have any Death Cab for Cutie, either, which is something else I'm looking for. It's recommended I look online. I find no Kurosawa boxed set, but I do find Transatlanticism for $10.99, and that's cheaper than anywhere else I've found online, even used. So, this morning I'm browsing BestBuy.com's selection and decide I'll take the CD and Jeunet's City of Lost Children (I scored massive points with the boss at the Christmas party bringing that up in the Favorite Films discussion). It was at this point that I discovered "The Kink." Best Buy gift cards are not redeemable online. Now how exactly can this be? You can use any major credit card, even Best Buy credit, online. So why not a gift card? And why refer customers online when not all purchasing options are available? Someone's not thinking here.

So this afternoon I venture to my nearest Best Buy 'round Potomac Mills. I specifically ask for CLC. Remarkably, the blue shirt knows what I'm talking about, but predictably, they don't have it. They don't have Death Cab, either, though I'm told they're receiving a shipment Saturday, and they'll be $15.99. $15.99! And it's $10.99 online. No thank you, sir. So while I'm wallowing through the movie section trying to find something to spend my gift card on, jumpin' Jehosophat, there's the Decalogue. I didn't even realize that was available on DVD in the States. So all is not lost. Though Best Buy really should rememdy that gift card online kink for next Christmas. I'm serious. And beef up their foreign film section, too, while they're at it.

"Those stupid, fat, drunken hobbitsess makeses a silly game out of the precious. We hates it! *gollum*" Might just have to try this one. Minus the homo-erotic options, of course.

63 more days until the first Spring Training Mariner game. Tick. Tick. Tick.

2003-12-24T16:01:00.000-05:00

I'll be home for Christmas

Tomorrow I brave the orange terror alert and fly home to see my family in Tulsa for a week. I really want a T-shirt that says in big bold letters, "I AM VIGILANT." But maybe that's my ornery inner-teenager coming out.

I'll write as opportunity arises. It's a cathartic exercise, really, so there's no telling how much the holidays will require of it :) I'll be back to full speed for the New Year.

Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace to men on whom his favor rests. Because that's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.

Merry Christmas, everyone.

2003-12-24T10:28:00.000-05:00

Hall of Fame: Mex and Donnie Baseball

Or I Love the 80's: Baseball Style. I neglected to mention yesterday that the league averages used below are based on the number outs used.

Keith Hernandez

CAREER 1974-90

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2088 7370 .296 .384 .436 162  648 1070 1012  98  63 75% .644 1265

     7089 .271 .344 .419 209  595  793 1033  89  57 61% .543 1022

Yeah, check out that career .384 career on-base percentage. He put up a .400+ OBP five times in his career, led the league in that category once and finished in the top 3 seven times in his 17-year career. He led the league in walks once and finished in the top 3 four times. Ever the patient hitter, Hernandez walked more often than he struck out. While he was not the home run hitter that either Eddie Murray or Steve Garvey was in that era, he hit more extra base hits than his contemporaries. In addition, he stole more bases and was more successful at it than his peer first basemen. He created 24% more runs than the league average, and when you throw in ten consecutive gold gloves, you've got yourself a dandy Hall of Fame argument here.

Now gold gloves, just like MVP Awards, Cy Yound Awards and All-Star selections, are not the end-all of a players' credentials. It's an entirely subjective and flawed selection process. Reputation, it seems, often counts as much as actual performance. But they don't always get them wrong, and awards should be considered... just with a grain of salt.

PEAK SEASON 1979 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 161  610 .344 .417 .513  11   70   80   78  11   6 65% .729  134

      539 .278 .343 .428  16   46   56   75   7   4 64% .535   80

Hernandez shared the MVP in 1979 with Willie Stargell, the only time that's ever happened. He was far more valuable than the ever popular Stargell who hit a lot more home runs in a hitters park and played for the World Champion Pirates. Dave Winfield deserved it more than both of them. But back to Mex. He lead the league in batting average, on-base percentage and doubles, creating two-thirds more runs than the average first baseman--far and away the best at his position in baseball.

3-YEAR PEAK 1979-81 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 141  527 .326 .410 .494  12   57   76   65  12   6 66% .714  109

      489 .276 .343 .415  12   40   51   62   7   4 61% .539   69

Busch Stadium was a neutral park in 1979 and slightly favored hitters through the early eighties, and Hernandez consistently hit .300 with on-base percentages over .400.

5-YEAR PEAK 1979-83 (3rd Best 1B)

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 147  540 .315 .404 .464  11   52   83   67  13   7 65% .690  105

      510 .275 .344 .416  14   42   55   66   6   4 61% .546   73

While he never put up the sexy home run numbers, at his peak, Hernandez dominated his fellow first baseman, drawing a walk more often than he struck out, getting on base more often, creating more runs. Offensively, he, Eddie Murray and Cecil Cooper are all very similar in overall worth. Add in defense and Hernandez was the best first baseman in baseball in his prime. While he never again matched his production offensively of 1979 and 1980, he was an extremely solid bat in the heart of the lineup of the mid-eighties Mets that won a championship in 1986.

In addition, Hernandez had a career EQA of .300, was worth 101.6 wins above a replacement level first baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 271 runs above replacement. Those are pretty worthy Hall credentials if you ask me.

Don Mattingly

CAREER 1982-95

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

1785 7003 .307 .358 .471 222  684  588  444  14   9 61% .624 1160

     6693 .273 .352 .443 249  616  809 1019  50  35 59% .573 1052

Is Mattingly the best Yankee to never win a ring? Simply put, Mattingly put the bat on the ball. Like Hernandez, Mattingly walked more often than he struck out. But he did neither very often. He is a career .300 hitter, but his on-base percentage is just league average. For his career, he wasn't a home run hitter, thanks to mid-career back injury, but he did hit 35+ doubles eight times in his 14-year career, leading the league three times in a row. The stolen base was never a part of Mattingly's offensive repertoire. He created 10% more runs than the average first baseman of his day.

PEAK SEASON 1986 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 162  677 .352 .394 .573  31   86   53   35   0   0  0% .742  149

      610 .273 .352 .436  22   53   74   91   4   2 67% .567   94

Take your pick--1984, 1985, 1986. They were all phenomenal seasons by any standard. He won the batting crown in '84 and the MVP in '85, but I pick '86 when he led the league in slugging percentage and extra base hits. Wade Boggs edged him for the batting crown by .005 points. He also led the league in hits, doubles and total bases, creating 37% more runs than his fellow AL first basemen. He finished second to Roger Clemens in the MVP vote and was easily the best first baseman in either league.

3-YEAR PEAK 1984-86 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 158  644 .340 .382 .560  30   80   50   36   1   1 50% .742  135

      597 .277 .347 .439  20   53   64   83   5   3 58% .565   90

As stated above, it's a mighty fine three-year run. To hit .340/.382/.560 with 30 homers and 80 extra base hits in any single season is a great accomplishment. To average that over three consecutive seasons is a Hall of Famer in the making.

5-YEAR PEAK 1984-88 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH   BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 152  620 .332 .376 .541  27   73   48   35   1   1 42% .718  123

      578 .276 .348 .446  21   53   64   82   5   3 59% .571   90

At his peak, Don Mattingly was hands down the best first baseman in all of baseball. The tragedy is that's all there is to his career. Had he continued to produce at the level he had from '84-'88 into the early nineties, even if he had declined just slightly, there would really be no discussion as to Mattingly's Hall merit. From 1990-95, he was a below average first baseman, much below. The numbers show his defense remained consistent, but his back injury turned him from one of the league's most feared hitters into a mere mortal. He had a Hall of Fame peak, but his lack of longetivity keeps him from being an All-Time great.

Additionally, Mattingly had a career EQA of .298, was worth 91.6 wins above a replacement level first baseman (adjusted for all-time) for his teams, and his defensive was worth 244 runs above replacement.

Of the four first baseman on the ballot, I'd rank Keith Hernandez at the top, and at this point, I'm leaning toward punching his name. Steve Garvey and Mattingly are about even, but I'd give a slight edge to Mattingly for the quality of his peak. Cecil Fielder is a distant fourth.

For some more Hall of Fame perspective, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated offers his ballot. And Ranting Mike, a devout Jamesian if there ever was one, has been all over this topic.

2003-12-23T10:29:00.000-05:00

Some Hall of Fame thoughts: Big Daddy and the Senator

As I peruse this year's Hall of Fame ballot, I cannot help but echo the sentiments offered by Matt Bruce several months ago. I remember these guys. More specifically, I remember these guys exactly as they appear on their 1987 Topps baseball cards. Minnesota Twin Bert Blyleven with the close up headshot. Cleveland Indian Joe Carter playing first base in a defensive crouch with eyeblack so thick it looks like mud. Cincinnati Red Dave Concepcion kneeling at second, glove in the air after a tag. Montreal Expo Andre Dawson with bat straight in the air on his follow through. San Diego Padre Steve Garvey without a cap, stretching on the infield grass.

Why I can remember such vivid details and forget where I placed the peanut butter in the pantry yesterday is just beyond me.

There was a day when I all I knew about these baseball players was from the hieroglyphics on the back of their baseball cards ("Wow! Bobby Bonilla has two middle names!" "Wow! B.J. Surhoff is good because his card says 'Future Star'!"), Beckett Baseball Card Monthly and the Sporting News. Somewhere around five years ago I discovered Rob Neyer, then Bill James, then Prospectus, Moneyball, etc., and as St. Paul puts it, "When I was a child, I walked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put childish ways behind me." Going back now to make some sort of informed decision with my ballot has been a treat. I had no idea just how horrible Joe Carter was. Or what a phenomenal centerfielder Andre Dawson was. And I thought I remembered Terry Pendleton as being really good.

The statistics below include games, at bats, batting average, on-base and slugging percentages, home runs, extra base hits, walks, strikeouts, stolen bases, caught stealing and success rate, offensive winning percentage (a Bill James junk stat that hypothesizes what the winning percentage of a lineup of 9 of that certain player would be against league average pitching) and Runs Created (another James stat, though a pretty simple, straight-forward formula). The first row of numbers is the players actual stats, or average per season in the case of the 3 and 5-year peaks. The second row is the league average for position of the same time period. I by no means purport to be an expert. There is no objective standard as to what makes a Hall of Famer, and I'm still in the process of developing my own ideas on the subject. That's what this is all about.

So here I go, thinking out loud. My hall of fame ballot, beginning with the first basemen, in chronological order, somewhat, maybe not really:

Cecil Fielder

CAREER 1985-88, 1990-98

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

1470 5157 .255 .345 .482 319  526 693 1316   2   6 25% .550  833 

     5275 .274 .358 .455 215  508 680  938  40  26 61% .570  868

What's there to say beyond the oft-quoted Bill James comment? "He was a big fat guy who hit a lot of home runs for awhile." A one-dimensional player if there ever was one, Fielder was a baserunner only in the sense that when he hit the ball over the fence he was obligated to run the bases. He lead the league in home runs twice, runs batted in three times, and sluggling percentage, total bases and extra base hits once. For his career, he produced 4% fewer runs than the league average first baseman.

PEAK SEASON 1990 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 159  573 .277 .377 .592  51   77  90  182   0   1  0% .733  126

      557 .266 .351 .431  20   49  73   93   3   2 60% .586   86

Cecil Fielder was the first AL player to top 50 home runs since Mantle and Maris in 1961. Yet, despite leading the league in home runs, slugging percentage, total bases and extra base hits, one can make a serious argument that both Fred McGriff and Eddie Murray were superior first basemen in 1990. Still, whacking two and half times as many home runs and producing 47% more runs than your contemporaries is fairly impressive.

3-YEAR PEAK 1990-1992 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 159  597 .261 .350 .520  43   68  80  161   0   1  0% .640  107

      591 .263 .344 .421  20   51  73   95   4   3 58% .556   86

Same story: Lots of home runs, lots of strikeouts, not much else. For those wondering, Tiger Stadium favored neither hitters nor pitchers at this time.

5-YEAR PEAK 1990-1994 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 148  558 .262 .352 .506  38   60  76  144   0   2  0% .607   97

      559 .269 .354 .440  21   52  73   94   4   3 58% .572   88

Even at his peak, Fielder was never even the best player at his position, much less the best player in baseball. All in all, Fielder put up one fairly impressive season, followed by one good one, several middling average ones and five you could call really bad. If you need a representative of first base in the early nineties in the Hall of Fame, you have the glut of McGriff, Bagwell, Thomas, Clark and Palmeiro well before you get to Cecil Fielder. No Big Daddy in the Hall.

Steve Garvey

CAREER 1969-87

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

2332 8835 .294 .329 .446 272  755 479 1003  83  62 57% .559 1225

     8584 .269 .342 .414 249  704 956 1245  96  64 60% .536 1216

Despite all the accolades of his career, the all-star games, appearing in the leader boards throughout his career, playing in five world series, the numbers show Steve Garvey as a league average first baseman. He hit for a higher average and for more power than his contemporaries, but drew half as many walks over the course of his career, making his OBP as far below league average as his batting average is above. He put up four very good seasons, two very bad ones and the rest around the league average for his position, though more slightly above than below.

PEAK SEASON 1978 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 162  639 .316 .353 .499  21   66  40   70  10   5 60% .657  108

      598 .264 .336 .409  17   50  65   90   9   5 64% .526   82

It really is a toss up between '78 and '74. Garvey produced more runs per 27 outs in '78 (6.23) than in '74 (5.95). The baseball writers gave him the most valuable award in '74, and Garvey finished second in the voting to Dave Parker in '78. Despite producing 32% more runs than the league average in 1978, he wasn't the best first baseman that year. Rod Carew was definitely more effective offensively, and a strong case could be made for Eddie Murray as well.

3-YEAR PEAK 1974-76 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 159  644 .316 .352 .465  17   57  38   67  12   5 71% .651  102

      606 .267 .344 .415  18   30  70   90   6   4 61% .541   86

5-YEAR PEAK 1974-78 

   G   AB  AVG  OBA  SLG  HR  XBH  BB   SO  SB  CS   %  OWP   RC

 160  643 .312 .349 .479  21   60  38   72  11   5 68% .637  103

      610 .269 .343 .421  19   52  68   90   7   4 63% .539   88

At his peak, Garvey was the best offensive first baseman of his era despite playing in Dodger Stadium that favored pitchers through the mid-seventies before playing more neutral towards the end of the decade. He could hit for a consistently high average but not quite high enough to offset his refusal to take a base on balls. So, despite collecting 200 hits six times, four gold gloves, ten all-star selections, an MVP and a .911 OPS in eleven post season series, Steve Garvey doesn't make my Hall of Fame.

2003-12-22T10:06:00.000-05:00

Beggars can't be choosers

"Fine speech is not becoming to a fool..." (Proverbs 17:7, RSV)

I don't like Jeff Cirillo. Never have. Nothing personal. He just seems to have been born without an ounce of tact nor the ability of "fine speech," as the Jewish proverb says. Here is the latest in his legacy of worst words at the worst time:

"My intention is to go to camp and play the best I can for Seattle, but I can't see myself walking through the Mariners' door in spring training, and I told them that," he said. "You're trying to win a championship and, especially with new guys on the team, you don't need the distraction" (Finnigan, Times).
I'm just imagining myself walking into my boss's office this morning and giving him the line: "You know, Boss. I'm going to give you everything I've got today, but quite frankly, I don't see myself being successful in this office. I notice you've brought in some new people, and well, I can't see how I would have a positive effect on them." Hmm... I've got a feeling that would not go over too well. I imagine I would be shown the door.

Now it is my understanding that the odds of becoming a major league baseball player are about as great as Frodo dumping that bossy little ring of his. A fool's hope, really. My own dream was squashed when I actually had to try out for the 14 & under league. I figure the equation has to go something like this: 93% being seen by the right person at the right time, 6% attitude, 4% talent and 2% butterscotch ripple. How Jeff Cirillo ever made it to the big leagues with that inner voice of confidence of his is a great mystery. Still, a fragile porcelain ego does not excuse one from stupid quotes in the media. The sooner Jeff Cirillo is a Tampa Bay Devil Ray--reunited with his archnemesis Uncle Lou--the better. Though I'd be hard-pressed to see how poor old Lou would deserve that.

I'll look to the Pacific northwestern poet Gary Snyder as my inspiration for heckling Jeffrey Cirillo the next time I see him in the batter's box: "You couldn't hit a bear in the ass with a handful of rice!"

Somehow I just can't resist commenting on this classic Bill Bavasi quote from Larry Stone's Sunday column. This is regarding the decision to keep Freddy and the possibility of Rafael Soriano or one of the other rookies to have an opportunity in the rotation:
"When the kids are ready for the opportunity, it might be better to let them dip their toe in the water and knock on the door before we throw them in the fire."
Count the cliches. No wait... I lost count.

On this weekend's big nontender news, Bavasi is quoted in the same article: "The list, by and large, is very, very often overrated," Bavasi said. "We might have payroll flexibility but little quality to spend it on." Are we so sure? So the holes that need filling are a left-handed reliever, an infielder and a left-handed bat off the bench. One name in particular jumps out at me. Maybe two. I'll leave it to another blogger to dissect the whole list.

Scott Sauerback is probably the highest profile lefty reliever in the bin. He held lefties to .192/.323/.308 last season in Pittsburgh and Boston. His 6.48 ERA while with the Red Sox last year is gaudy, but it was just 16.2 innings, and Fenway is a hitter's park while PNC in Pittsburgh is a neutral park. Safeco Field just might be his style.

Travis Chapman is the name that makes me look twice. Perhaps with David Bell under contract, the flexibility of Placido Polanco and Chase Utley ready for the big leagues, the Phillies consider third baseman Chapman expendible. He's 25 and hit .272/.348/.423 for Triple-A Scranton last year. His .282 EQA in the International League translates to .240 in the big leagues (compare to Jeff Cirillo .203, Willie Bloomquist .238 and Scott Spiezio .271). I'm not saying he's the answer, but he just might be worth a look. You've got to admire a player of whom getting hit by a pitch is among his arsenal of on-base prowess. He's hit double digits in that stat three times in his short minor league career, 19 times in 2002.

According to Baseball America, he was "one of the hottest names generating that buzz for this year's Rule 5 crop." Yet somehow he wasn't picked up by anyone in that draft. Last winter Jason Barker wrote that Chapman was the top prospect to watch in the Detroit organization. Of course that is Detroit. It just makes one ponder what's the deal with Travis Chapman.

And rounding out the day, there is indeed a current Angels blog. He has some particularly malicious words for Mariners fans regarding Bill Bavasi. Something to the effect of "Ha ha! Suckers!" Do LiveJournal blogs even use permalinks? You'll to scroll down to the entry December 1 at the very bottom of the page at the moment. I'd take a moment and disparage that silly primate of mascot they have in Anaheim, but that's too easy and Bill Bavasi is still the general manager of the Mariners.

2003-12-19T10:33:00.000-05:00

Only the lonely

"And who are his peers? "'In my mind, Ichiro stands alone,' [his agent, Tony] Attanasio said" (Hickey, P-I).
All I want is to cut through all the hype and know who just does Ichiro compare with. Is he really such a unique player that he stands apart in history?

Three years ago, the hot rumor was Johnny Damon. Well, Johnny Damon isn't making $11 million a year.

I received an email last summer suggesting Rod Carew. Here's how they compare in their age 27-29 seasons:

         G   AB  AVG  OBP  SLG   H HR XBH  BB  SO  SB CS   %  RC

Carew  445 1714 .358 .422 .470 613 23 127 200 144 114 41 74% 349

Ichiro 473 2018 .328 .374 .440 662 29 143 134 184 121 37 87% 346

Sure, by the numbers, they're kind of similar, but they're not the Wonder Twins or anything. They were both contact, slap hitters with little power, who didn't strike out much, were highly efficient baserunners and played key defensive positions on the right side of the diamond. Carew was a more patient man at the plate--fewer strikeouts, more walks. They created essentially the same number of runs for their teams, though Carew did it in half-a-season's fewer at bats.

Baseball Reference offers as Ichiro's best comparisons as George Stone, Bake McBride, Taffy Wright, Topsey Hartsel, Bill Lamar, Bill Everitt, Ron LeFlore, Dom DiMaggio, Dusty Miller and Freddy Miller. And no, I did not just pull all those out of a Dickens novel.

It doesn't take much more of a cursory glance through that list to realize it really doesn't tell us much of anything. Similarity scores are really just another ain't-that-cool, trivial junk stat of Bill James. It's a fun way to lose a few hours on the internet, but it's real value in assessing and analyzing the similarity of players is severely lacking. Sure, George Stone was a 5'9", 175-pound centerfielder, but he was also out of baseball prior to the advent of moving pictures.

The problem with Ichiro is that he's an All-Star talent who didn't first step into the Major Leagues until he was 27. Yeah, every Seattle media outlet trumpets, "He has 662 hits in his first three big league seasons, nothing any other player in modern times has come close to" (Hickey). I'm not impressed by that for the simple reason that most major leaguers enter the major leagues anywhere between 22 and 24, and some even younger than that. Ichiro had 1278 hits before even coming to America. While Hickey's statement is indeed true--nobody else recently has that many hits in his first three seasons--and praiseworthy, the inferred meaning is that this sets him apart into the upper eschelon of modern superstars. It plain doesn't. He began his career in the Major Leagues as an All-Star and professional hitter; he was not some greenhorn still learning the mechanics of hitting.

Not only that, he has spent the last three seasons as the Mariners leadoff man, meaning he sees relatively more at bats in the season than the average major leaguer. Ichiro has seen more at bats over the last three years than any other player of the same period. Of course, we should expect him to have an extraordinary amount of hits; he sees an extraordinary amount of at bats. To hit .300 in those 2018 at bats, one would need 605 hits--still more than "any other player in modern times has come close to" in his first three years.

Taking age into context, only George Sisler (who played from 1915 to 1930) had more hits--719--than Ichiro between the ages of 27 and 29, but he's 49th in batting average on the all-time list. Compared to the lead average, weighted against outs made, Ichiro slips to 20th on the hits list and 37th on the batting average list. None of that accounts for ballpark, though.

Please don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to say Ichiro is a terrible player or that the M's shouldn't have signed him to an extension or that the Mariners should get rid of Ichiro. I'm simply bored by the hype and just want to know how great Ichiro's accomplishments really are. I'm just a rather curious cuss. Why exactly? I don't really know. So maybe I'm not that curious.

As many already know, a certain weblog published some fiction as fact this past week, and it's creating, at least to me, a thoughtful discussion. Paul of the SS Mariner thinks its no big deal. The internet is for hacks, and we can say whatever the hell we want because there is no one to stop us. Will Carroll thinks it's an absolute travesty. Internet media and the genre of weblogs can only be taken as seriously as those who publish them. As Will points out, unfortunately it only takes one bad apple to spoil the bunch, and once integrity and credibility are breached it's nearly impossible to re-earn them.

As for me, I have no interest in being a news source or in scooping stories. I'm not hoping to one day earn a press pass. I just do this because writing about baseball is fun for me--that and because of the strokes my ego gets from the number hits to the site everyday. But I'm working on that.

I believe the internet and the weblog phenomenon have the potential to be a legitimate voice of the fan community. I'd like to believe we can eventually live up to that potential rather than piss it all away for a cheap joke. While I myself have no inside MLB or Mariner connections, I know for a fact there are bloggers who do. To them and online publications like Baseball Prospectus, this is indeed a big deal.

If the winter meetings got you excited, I hope you've read Alex Belth's two-parter, as well as Jay Jaffe's and also Will Carroll's random overhead quotes. Mom keeps telling me wouldn't it be great to be paid for this. Well, if that would be require actually having to be a part of that culture, I would most certainly go nuts. I'm quite content to live vicariously through these guys. So thanks guys, that was fun.

2003-12-18T11:40:00.000-05:00

The man with the golden glove

Catch the ball. Throw the ball. Easy as Scaramanga, right?

Ah defenseâ€”ever tangible but never measurable. I say â€œimmeasurable,â€� but thatâ€™s not completely accurate. For some time now, the scientific baseball community has been trying to measure it, and I am pretty confident in declaring that with every new day, the boys in the white lab coats with the fancy calculators are getting closer.

In the meantime, weâ€™re left with traditional statistics, such as errors and fielding percentage, and a bit more advanced suckers, like zone rating and range factor. Then there is Prospectusâ€™s fielding runs above replacement and rate statistics and Pinto and his probabilistic model of range. And, love him or hate him, Bill James has his Win Shares method.

You will find discussion galore on all of this yearâ€™s postseason awardsâ€”most valuable player, rookie of the year, Cy Young. Most of the arguments revolve around very concrete arguments. Who hit the most home runs? Who was the greatest run producer? Who reached base most often? What pitcher â€œwonâ€� the most games?

Theyâ€™re all very tangible evidence. Offensive statistics tell us very concrete thingsâ€”how many balls a player hit that went over the fence, the ratio of his hits per at bats, how many bases he stole. Plug a handful of these into a spreadsheet and, shazam, you can see how many runs he creates. Likewise, a pitcherâ€™s job is to prevent runs. Earned run average is a pretty accurate reflection of a pitcherâ€™s success, or lack thereof. You can talk about this stuff for days. At least I can.

But defenseâ€¦ How many discussions have you read about the Gold Glove winners of 2003? Buellerâ€¦? Buellerâ€¦? You do not because the statistical evidence to hang your hat on is sketchy at best. Anyone who tries building a statistical case is building a house of cards in a hurricane.

But credit Tom Tippet of Diamond Mindâ€”a much smarter man than Iâ€”for trying. And, despite all my cynicism on the subject, I think he does a mighty fine job of it.

Here are the actual Gold Glove winners compared with the most valuable according to the Win Shares method for defense compared with Tippetâ€™s conclusion:

Pitcher
GG: Mike Mussina, Mike Hampton
WS: N/A
TT: Kenny Rogers, Kirk Rueter

Catcher
GG: Benji Molina, Mike Matheny
WS: Ramon Hernandez, Brian Schneider
TT: Benji Molina, Mike Matheny

Hereâ€™s a comment Mâ€™s fans may find interesting concerning the best defensive American League catcher:
"If Dan Wilson (92 starts) didn't share the position with Ben Davis, he'd get my vote. He was part of the duo that led the league in fewest steals allowed, he led the league in fielding percentage (only one error), and shared the lead in fewest passed balls allowed among catchers with at least 800 innings. But it's hard to pick a guy who caught only 57% of his team's inningsâ€¦"
So not only is he a nice guy, but he plays some good defense. Itâ€™s a shame he swings the bat only marginally better than I do. It still doesnâ€™t forgive such a vacuum in the lineup. Iâ€™m actually surprised that he caught only 57% of the Mariners innings. It felt like a lot more than that during the season.

First base
GG: John Olerud, Derrek Lee
WS: John Olerud, Derrek Lee
TT: Doug Mientkiewicz, Derrek Lee

Mets fan Eric McErlain and I discussed the value of John Olerud, not only by plate discipline, but also defense, earlier in the year. Tom adds this bit:
"Seattle had the league's lowest error total in 2003, and the lowest number of throwing errors, so it's tempting to conclude that Olerud saved his fellow infielders a lot of errors ... on the other hand, Seattle was only second best in the AL, behind Minnesota, in fewest errors by 2B/3B/SS ... unfortunately, it's very hard to measure 1Bs in this manner because our play-by-play data tells us how many throwing errors were made, but it doesn't tell us how many throwing errors would have been made if not for a good play by the first baseman."
I would really like to know how many errors Olerud saved from those Carlos Guillen airmails.

Second base
GG: Bret Boone, Luis Castillo
WS: Orlando Hudson, Alex Cora
TT: Mark Ellis, Marcus Giles

On Boonie, he says, "[his] range has never been anything to write home aboutâ€¦ In fact, he was in the middle of the pack in just about every measure of range that we look at." Ooohâ€¦ nobody tell that to Rick Rizzs. It will be our little secret.

Third base
GG: Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen
WS: Eric Chavez, Adrian Beltre
TT: Eric Cavez, Adrian Beltre

Shortstop
GG: Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria
WS: Jose Valentin, Cesar Izturis.
TT: Jose Valentin, Alex Gonzalez (Cubs)

Outfield (AL)
GG: Mike Cameron, Ichiro, Torii Hunter
WS: Mike Cameron, Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter
TT: Mike Cmaeron, Ichiro, Torii Hunter

On the Mariners outfield:
"Seattle's outfield was far and away the best in the majors at turning fly balls and line drives into outs. They can put three legitimate center fielders out there -- Mike Cameron, the best in the business right now, Ichiro, who was a Gold Glove center fielder in Japan, and Randy Winn, who played center in Tampa Bay before he was traded to Seattle last winter."
And to those still with a chip on their shoulder about Cameronâ€™s batting average:
"Cameron led all major league outfielders with 484 putouts, 47 more than runner- up Rocco Baldelli and 60 more than Hunter. It helps, of course, that he plays behind a fly-ball staff in a park that's very friendly to pitchers. But even when you account for those things, Cameron turned about 40 more batted balls into outs than did the average center fielder. "Ichiro's raw net-plays figure isn't all that impressive until you allow for the fact that he shares the right-field gap with Cameron, who was about 10 plays above average in those zones. Ichiro would have made some of those plays had Cameron not reached those balls first. In addition, Ichiro's speed and arm turned a bunch of doubles and triples into singles."
Rejoice Tom Glavine and Al Leiter. Rejoice Timo Perez and Cliff Floyd. Rejoice Mets fans the world over.

Outfield (NL)
GG: Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Jose Cruz
WS: Andruw Jones, Craig Biggio, Jose Cruz
TT: Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, Jose Cruz

I find it interesting just how many unanimous picks there are between all three methodsâ€”six total, half of them centerfieldersâ€”Derrek Lee, Eric Chavez, Mike Cameron, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones and Jose Cruz. As sketchy and biased as defensive stats and with the subjective nature of the Gold Glove selections, I did not expect that much overlap.

I have no doubt that the award is chosen on an entirely subjective basis by coaches. If they look to statistics they are probably fielding percentage and errors, which are in themselves subjective. Win Shares is a hodgepodge conglomeration of nearly every number you can think of associated with fielding a ball. I appreciate that Tom takes the best of both worlds, making personal observations while attempting to interpret the biases in the numbers, and there are many. If you havenâ€™t read the entirety of the article yet, I highly recommend it.

And I very much look forward to the today when we can say, "That's it! Thatâ€™s good defense!" and have some evidence to back it up with.

If you had not already noticed, I did a little rearranging last night. I hope you like it. I hope you find the site a wee bit easier on the eyes and the links a wee bit more user- friendly. If for some reason the look is entirely unacceptable in your browser, well, tough. No really, drop a comment or an email, and I will try to see what I can do. But no promises.

There really is an email link. It is in the solid blue bar between the Primer meetup link (are you coming?) and the Guest Map (pin it, I double dog dare you). Just wave your mouse thingy over it and youâ€™ll see "email me." If any astute web savvy individual wants to check the source code and tell me what I need to change so we can all see the "email me" without waving our mouse thingies over it, that would be great, too.

And the permalinks still don't work. Crap.

2003-12-17T10:19:00.000-05:00

Assessing the damage

Are we on double secret probation? Is that what this is?

It's something like watching a Polaroid picture develop. You wait. And you wait. And you wait. You can shake it around all you want. It doesn't make it come to life any faster. Suddenly, you take a hard look and realize this isn't the picture you took.

So I wait to see the 2004 Mariners materialize. It ain't there yet. It's still some pale bile color, but there are some vague distinguishable shapes. I've never been a patient one.

Prospectus has a stat called Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). Essentially, it distills a player's offensive contribution, weighted for park effects, into a single number that represents how many wins in the standings a player contributed. In purpose and function, it's similar to Win Shares but without the defense and it has a 1 to 1 relationship to wins rather than 1 to 3. It comes in handy when comparing replacement players. For instance, Mike Cameron's WARP in 2003 was 8.3; Raul Ibanez's was 3.7. Swapping Cammie for Ibanez cost the Mariners 4.6 wins, essentially turning a 93-win team into a 88-and-a-half-win team.

"How can that be," you might declare. "Raul's a better hitter, i.e. higher batting average, and more effective run producer, i.e. more RBIs." Well, Cameron has a significant edge in walks (which means fewer outs made) and stolen bases (singles essentially turned into doubles). They also had almost exactly the same amount of extra base hits while Cameron hit in an extremely difficult park to hit in and Ibanez did it in a relatively easy park to hit in.

Now, are we all on the same page for WARP? Great. Here's how Bill Bavasi's plan to upgrade the offense has "improved" the team:

Player lost    WARP  Player gained     WARP

John Mabry      0.5  Raul Ibanez        3.7

Rey Sanchez     1.3  Scott Spiezio      3.7

Mike Cameron    8.3  Quinton McCracken -0.8

Greg Colbrunn   0.3  

Mark McLemore   1.8

Jeff Cirillo   -0.2

                ---                     ---

TOTAL          12.0                     6.6

DIFFERENCE     -5.4

Bavasi has transformed the 93-win team he inherited and in little more than a week reduced it to an 87-88-win team. Another reason to rejoice the blundered Vizquel/Guillen deal is that the difference in the two shortstops offensively last year was 1.6 in favor of Guillen--that's another game and a half lost in a division where that's been the difference between the pennant and second place. And Mariner Nation breathes a collective sigh of relief.

Now there are numerous problems with this method. First of all, Bavasi has swapped two starters and four benchwarmers for two starters and one bencher, thus far. There's still three roster spots to add. They have to combine for about five and a half wins for the M's not even to improve, but to just break even by last year's numbers.

Secondly, it demonstrates what these players produced LAST year, and that's little help in forecasting what they'll do next year. Injuries hampered Colbrunn, Cirillo, McCracken and Vizquel, and it's fair, to a certain degree, to assume their production will increase next year. For Rey Sanchez, that's just half a season (probably to his advantage). Furthermore, Ben Davis is the single returning starter that might be reasonably expected to improve over last year. Every other starter is over 30, some more so than others.

Thirdly, it doesn't take into account defense. Swapping Cameron for Winn and then Winn for Ibanez, as mentioned numerous times before here and elsewhere, painfully weakens the left side of the outfield. While Spiezio upgrades Cirillo in the batter's box, if only because he has a pulse, he is far from Cirillo's equal at third base. The defense is clearly being compromised by Bavasi's moves thus far, and that's going to cost the team at least a couple more wins.

Despite these shortcomings, it is a place to start to objectively analyze how these moves affect the team. Bottom line... an expectation of 87 wins at this point is generous. And for the quality of baseball Seattle has been spoiled with the last five years, that's just sad.

On the bright side, the Athletics have two massives holes to fill in their lineup and bullpen, and the Rangers are on the verge of ditching the best player in the game. Meanwhile the Angels are shoring up their rotation and have signed yet another comparable outfielder for a lesser pricetag than Raul Ibanez. I'm losing count on those now.

I would ask the question whether you thought Bill Bavasi could construct a better roster for $90 million than Billy Beane with $50 million, but if you actually had to think about that one, I'd probably laugh somewhat maniacally.

I'd like to echo Dave's sentiments. The explosion of M's blogs recently (Cracking the Safe and Sodo Oh No added to the list this morning) is nothing but a wonderful thing. To me, one of the most endearing things about baseball is the limitless angles to it. You can sit and enjoy a game, a full season, while the person next to you enjoys something completely different that you missed. The internet community is a wonderful way to discover all the facets of the game that you miss. Have a blog. Write about baseball. Write about why you love this game and this team so damn much. Think about baseball. Think about baseball creatively. Anyone considered starting a blog following the specific minor league teams? I think it would be great if there were blogs devoted specifically to the Rainers, Mission, AquaSox and Sixers. I haven't seen that anywhere yet.

2003-12-16T09:58:00.000-05:00

Ba humbug

Mariner management is fouling up my Christmas spirit. No amount of Nat King Cole or the Carpenters can undo the damage. No, not even Evie or John Denver and the Muppets. I am Scrooge. Hear me "Ba humbug."

As I see it, my options are three:

1) Apostasy. I'll convert to Red Sox Nation. I confess: I'm a closet Red Sox fan. With visions of A-Rod in red stockings dancing in his head, Cosette today ruminates, "It's going to all work out. Have faith." Meanwhile, thanks to the Times my computer is glaring at me with a picture of a 36-year-old, $7 million, .321-OBA-in-2003 shortstop accompanied by the headline "Vizquel deal all but done for Mariners." I have lost faith. It's not going to work out. Since an 11-1 roadtrip that culminated on June 8, 2003, good news in Mariner Nation has been slim to absolutely none--six months. It's just not fair. I've every right to jump ship, don't I?

2) Delirium. I can abandon all objective analysis and acquiesce to the philosophy of Seattle management and media that "Good People Equal Good Players." If you can't beat them, join them, right? This quote is absolutely priceless:
McCracken, 33, was a double major at Duke University, graduating in four years with degrees in political science and history. He started every game in his college career and played football for the Blue Devils under coach Steve Spurrier (Stone, Times).
Yes! Wonderful! He's not only a great guy, but an intellectual athlete connected with the Redskin's head coach! Perhaps he can discuss the Federalist Papers with Troy Percival when he's pinch hitting with the game on the line. He sounds like a bright guy, no?
"It's a good deal for both clubs," [McCracken] said. "I have a history with the manager there (Bob Melvin), and I have some friends there, particularly Randy Winn. I've always liked the ballpark, the fans and the city, so it should be a good fit. "What any player wants is a chance to play and win. I'm looking forward to that" (Hickey, P-I).
Sounds like a great deal for Quinton. It'll be a shame if Winn gets traded now, right? I'm still waiting to here how he specifically thinks this is a "good deal for both clubs," though.

So, I can throw reason out the window. Just believe. Just have faith. Maybe Howard Lincoln & Co. can give me one of those blue pills like the rest of the Seattle media.

3) I can resign myself to predestination. A friend yesterday sent me a link to the five points of Calvinsim. This had nothing to do with my baseball ramblings yesterday, but I couldn't help be read them through my Mariner pessimist-stained eyes. John Calvin's ideas are central to the Protestent Reformation in the 16th century and thus extremely influential to Western Christian thought. One of these ideas is the concept of predestination, or God's Election:
In our Confession, Chapter 3, Sections 3, 4, and 7, we have this description of it: "By the decree of God, for the manifestation of his glory, some men and angels are predestined unto everlasting life and others foreordained to everlasting death." "These angels and men, thus predestinated and foreordained, are particularly and unchangeably designed; and their number is so certain and definite that it cannot be either increased or diminished."
I'm definitely not here to debate theological doctrine. But might the Mariners be predestined to mediocrity? Might my fate as a fan be everlastingly chained to this ship going nowhere? Might all these free agents, trades and nontenders be part of some diabolical, "particularly and unchangeably designed" plan?

On that note, if still hunting for the perfect Christmas gift for the Mariners fan in your family, might I recommend Art Thiel's Out of Left Field: How the Mariners Made Baseball Fly in Seattle. It contains no sharp objects nor removable pieces that might become choking hazards, though I suppose the jacket could be if wadded up small enough. In it, Art taps into the amazing story of how the Mariners went from losers--not doomed Red Sox losers or lovable Cubs losers, mind you, but losers that nobody cared about--into one of baseball's most profitable franchises in less than a decade. It's a phenomenal story. However, there's only one logical conclusion for the story: A championship. But it doesn't happen. It hasn't happened. It's getting mighty clear it won't happen in 2004. And as long as the current regime is in place, it will never happen.

I don't like this ending to the story. Good stories have good endings. This one doesn't.

At least maybe some good is coming out of this: Like I said last week, they're like gremlins swimming in the Sound. Mariner bloggers, that is. There's three more of them this morning:

The MarinersWeekly Weblog - Ryan's concept of "weekly" is a tad unorthodox, but he's a "lifelong M's fan," and for that he has my utmost pity.
Mariner Talk - Tim has his eyes on Adrian Beltre.
MFan4Life_24's Blog - Not only does Trent win the award for longest URL in the M's blogosphere, but he also wins the award for "Blog Title Most Likely to Appear on a License Plate." He's also currently studying sports management and economics, so I look forward to that perspective.

Now to come full circle with the Dickens reference, I let Aimee Mann serenade me:
Well, today a friend told me this sorry tale As he stood there trembling and turning pale He said each day's harder to get on the scale Sort of like Jacob Marley's chain.
Then again, with the M's making the moves they are and the imminent news of Lil' O, I should probably keep the John Denver and the Muppets coming and the Mann and Elliott Smith far, far away.

I will keep them far, far away along with the sharp objects, choking hazards and expensive office equipment I could be held responsible for, too.

2003-12-15T11:16:00.000-05:00

King of the Dodger hill

There must be some law. Maybe it's some Jungian tendency hard-wired in the collective subconscious. If you are a Dodger fan, and your name is John, then you must blog about the Dodgers.

I credit my former college roommate for a number of influences on my life. I blame him for my addiction to internet fantasy baseball. Last February, after I myself had spent the winter reading over the now newly resurrected Only Baseball Matters and Baseball Musings, I received an email from John pontificating his witty and sardonic crystal ball predictions for the 2003 season. It simply cried out for a response. And that was the genesis for what you see here.

And now there's Dodger Hill. Say hi. Be kind. A native Arkansan will only take so much crap. I know this by experience.

Oh and John, you may want to upgrade that crystal ball you were using last year. I think someone may have conned you into a shiny bowling ball with that thing.

2003-12-15T10:26:00.000-05:00

Whu happen'd?

This is all a bad dream, right? This is all a product of too many late-night eggnogs mixed with repressed psychological stimuli, and I can wake up now, right? This isn't happening, right?

Miguel Tejada is an Oriole this morning. Whoever said Peter Angelos was fiscally responsible? There's rejoicing in the Post today, and rumors are the O's aren't finished:
The Baltimore Orioles have not had a recognizable public face since Cal Ripken's retirement in 2001, a true slugger since Albert Belle's demise in 2000 or a winning team since their division-champion 1997 edition. By signing free agent shortstop Miguel Tejada to a six-year, $72 million contract on Sunday -- and moving closer to at least one other major signing -- the Orioles believe they have gained all three (Sheinin).
Yeah, I can't wait for the water-cooler talk in the office today. *sigh*

Good for Miggy. He'll be cashing a significantly bigger paycheck in Baltimore than he would have in Seattle, and he gets to be the face of a franchise that's been lost in the wilderness of identity crisis since the retirement of Cal Ripken. Rather than thwart the playoff attempts of his former club by signing in Seattle, Miggy will instead see plenty of days battling for fourth place staring up at the behemoths in New York and Boston and the sabermetric underdogs Toronto in the standings. For his sake at least, he won't be seeing the Big Three of Oakland 19 games a year as he would in Seattle. Instead, he'll most often see the pitching of New York and Boston, who are both stockpiling ace pitchers as if they were Cold War era nuclear warheads. But good for Miggy.

Junior Cruz is a Devil Ray this morning. A Devil Ray. For less money than the M's paid for Raul Ibanez. The Devil Rays. It's still sinking in. This isn't happening, is it?

In his treatise of theology to the first-century Roman Christians, St. Paul says "Against all hope, Abraham in hope believed..." (Romans 4:13, NIV). Abraham obviously never experienced a day in the life of a Seattle Mariner fan.

So where do the M's go from here? Speculation abounds. Speculation like Quinton McCracken. Like Scott Spiezio. Like Omar Vizquel. Like Rich Aurilia. Like Jose Valentin. Like Billy Beane picking up Arthur Rhodes.

It is Decemeber 15 and my hope for the 2004 Mariners already wanes. Pitchers and catchers report in 67 days. The first exhibition game takes place in 80 days. Opening day is a good three and a half months away. There's still plenty of time to perfect the roster, no?

On the bright side, the reigning AL West champions have lost there former MVP and plan on replacing him with a 23-year-old with 12 at bats of major league experience. On the bright side, the Athletics also lost thier ace closer Keith Foulke to their hated Red Sox while losing out on Mike Cameron. Today can't be a good day to be an A's fan. That's a plus, right? On the bright side, the Rafael Palmeiro will not be swatting homers into section 108 of Safeco Field in a Rangers uniform. On the bright side, the Angels are on the verge of losing Scott Spiezio. No wait...

A figid, snowy white blanket covers the DC metro area this morning. Yesterday's slush is today's ice, and it caused me to miss my usual 7 o'clock train. My hope in my Mariners is trickling to a standstill, threatening to freeze in this desolate December landscape.

Why do I put up with it? Why do we as fans endure it as we recklessly place our child-like, passionate faith in a ballclub destined for complacent mediocrity, for a congenial face, for a steady buck? I believe the plight of the Seattle Mariner fan is succinctly articulated by the 17th-century French philosopher and theologian Blaise Pascal. By all accounts, he was indeed a Mariner fan:
Thus we never live, but we hope to live; and always disposing ourselves to be happy, it is inevitable that we never become so (Pensees).

2003-12-12T10:24:00.000-05:00

One nation, under blogs...

A review of team blogs listed at Baseball News Blog shows nine sites devoted entirely to commentary on the Mariners, all active (or semi-active). That doesn't include Bobby or the Bremertonians, who are lumped into the "baseball-related weblogs" section a little below. By comparison, our AL West competition provides three weblogs for the Angels (one active), four for the Athletics (three active) and a measly one for the Rangers, and it's a Buck Showalter fan site.

Run over to Baseballblogs.org and the Mariners are represented by five sites, the Angels two, the A's three and the Rangers two. If only the Mariners crushed their competition by such a margin in the standings. Can't sheer volume of commentary count for something in the standings?

By my count, there's eleven active weblogs related to the Mariners (though I can't claim to be the final authority on such things). Now add three: One pines for the logo of yesteryear, one is perhaps the world's biggest Justin Leone fan, and one dares stand as the one voice of optimism in Mariner Nation.

Mariner Nation... I like the sound of that. Grand total? Fourteen Mariner weblogs at present. Still not quite up there with those rabid Red Sox and Cubbie fans, but getting there. Geez, particularly since the Bavasi signing, Mariner blogs have been multiplying like a Gremlin taking a swim in Puget Sound. They're everywhere. And that's a great thing. The more, the merrier. Just never feed a Mariner blogger after midnight.

Now if only we could find some Mariner-fan web designers to spruce up these blogs a bit and make them a bit nicer to look at... these four or five Blogger templates are getting old.

As the Curt Schilling situation with the Sons of Sam Horn illustrates, there is power in the collective fan community. There's been a discussion running over at Netshrine concerning baseball on the internet and this comment by David Pinto (of Baseball Musings) about weblogs specifically piqued my interest:
Just as fans are skirting the traditional media with web logs, I think we are fast approaching the time when players will do the same. We recently saw Curt Schilling use a chat room to check out Boston fans; it's only a matter of time before Curt goes directly to the fans with his own on-line diary. When that happens, fans will no longer need to depend reporters questions, they can ask their own questions directly.
It's becoming democratic, really. I see this in myself. I'll check out the local papers and ESPN for the news, but I won't trust their analysis and commentary for anything. I can find better on an independent website.

And sure, any 12-year-old kid can have access to a Blogger account and rant and rave his own point of view. But if this is indeed the future of baseball on the worldwide web, there's a great responsibility to those putting together these sites. With great power comes great responsibility. And the question becomes one of trust. And how long will it be before baseball blogs are held accountable for factual and accuracy? May the Mariner internet fan community continue to grow and flourish, and may we continue to educate and learn from each other.

There's a relatively new Oakland kid on the block, AthleticNation, and today he weighs in on Mike Cameron in the green and gold. Wednesday he referenced a Sacremento Bee article contemplating the future of Miguel Tejada with either the A's hated cross-the-bay rivals in San Francisco or their hated I-5 AL West rivals in Seattle. According to this A's fan:
My question to Athletics Nation is this: Which one is easier to swallow? The M's? The Giants? For me, it's, gasp, cough, gag, choke, the Giants. And only because it would mean that the A's wouldn't have to see him in another team's uniform playing in our home ballpark 8-10 times a season. He wouldn't be a factor in the AL West race.
If this is the panic of A's fans the world over, then what in the world are the Mariners waiting for? Come on, Lincoln, Bavasi and Gillick, today's my birthday.

Maybe I'll just change loyalties for a day and then I can feel like my team made a huge move on my day.

2003-12-11T11:20:00.000-05:00

Everybody get together, try to love one another

I may be unable to attend the USSM feed, and I'm still holding my breath for a Prospectus Pizza Feed in the DC area, but in the meantime here's a dandy idea brought by the fellows of Baseball Primer. If you're in the Northern VA/DC/Maryland area, sign on up and we'll chat it up baseball style.

2003-12-11T09:45:00.000-05:00

Move along, move along, nothing to see here

According to Bob "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" Finnigan:
Against all odds, Vladimir Guerrero could wind up a Seattle Mariner. At this point, the odds are long, and a connection between the Seattle club and the former Montreal superstar, top player among this winter's free agents, is largely hot-stove speculation. But by this time next week, Seattle could be involved in trying to sign Guerrero. "It could be, and right now it's probably not realistic," said a Mariners source. "But if things work out a certain way, we could be talking with them" (Times).
And if things work out a certain way, I could sprout wings and fly. Maybe it's just me, but when all is said and done this weekend in New Orleans I fully expect the Mariners to have pulled something out of their magician's hat that nobody expected and that will make the objective-analysis-minded Mariner crowd collectively groan. But there I go, being all cynical again.

On that note, John Hickey reports Randy Winn and Ryan Franklin have agreed to terms, details to be announced later. You have to think this is really good news in the sense that the Mariners could use some trade bait to fuel the fires for those Freddy Garcia and/or Jeff Cirillo propositions. They're both useful players, just not extraordinarily useful for the Mariners at this point. The bottom line is they're replaceable.

As already discussed about Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Ryan Franklin similarly is a pitcher dependent on the quality of his fielders behind him. His strikeout rate per nine innings last year was 4.20, nearly two fewer than the league average, which means he allows batters to put the ball in play. To be specific, he allows batters to put the ball in the air at an extreme rate. His ground ball to fly ball ratio last year was 0.76; only three other qualifed starters in the major leagues were more extreme fly ball pitchers. That's neither good nor bad. It merely points out a tendency in Ryan Franklin's game. One would expect the Red Sox to provide Derek Lowe, the most extreme ground ball pitcher, to provide him with a strong infield defense.

Yes, Ryan Franklin placed in the top 10 in the American League in ERA last year. He owes many thanks to Winn, Cameron and Ichiro. He also allowed the most home runs in the American League last year despite the advantage of a home pitcher's park. He will not repeat his top 10 ERA performance with an outfield of Ibanez, Winn and Ichiro.

Gil Meche and Jamie Moyer are also league average to below average strikeout pitchers that allowed more fly balls than ground balls. As a team, the Mariners were the most extreme fly ball pitching staff in baseball last year. Again, this is neither good nor bad, just a tendency of the team that other areas, such as the defensive unit, should be built around. Unless the M's are sacrificing their outfield defense for a huge offensive upgrade, i.e. Vlad Guerrero, this is a huge problem. Thus far, the M's have replaced Mike Cameron with Raul Ibanez, a move that critically damages the outfield defense and adds zero advantage on offense. Raul Ibanez's 2003 on-base percentage? .345. And Mike Cameron's? .344.

And cross left-handed thumper Brad Fullmer off the Christmas list. On the bright side, Rafael Palmeiro won't be making his appearances in Safeco Field in a Ranger uniform anymore. On the not so bright side, left-handed power sticks for the bench are flying off the shelves this Christmas season like Hokey Pokey Elmos. Please Uncle Bill? All the other cool kids are getting one.

I would also like to take this moment to inform the choir that Jose Cruz was worth 36 Runs Above Replacement in right field last year and won a gold glove. Ichiro was worth 29 in right field.

2003-12-10T14:14:00.000-05:00

Giovanni Who?

I spent the first 22 years of my life in northeastern Oklahoma, the very heart of tornado country, and I ever experienced only one tornado. Six months in DC and I've already experienced a hurricane and now an earthquake. I'm still trying to figure out that one. And what's really mysterious is I've missed both of them. I slept entirely through the hurricane, and nary a wobble did I feel all the way up here in Alexandria yesterday. Maybe I'm just a focused person. Then again, maybe the locals are just making this stuff up.

Cross Matt Stairs off the Christmas list.

So the M's sign another family guy with a bright smile and a goatee. He just looks like a Mariner, doesn't he? I'm working on my cynicism. I really am. No, really.

I found this tidbit in the Times intriguing:
The Guardado deal calls for at least $13 million over three years, including a signing bonus, more than the three-year, $12 million offer Arthur Rhodes rejected last spring.
If Rhodes's asking price was indeed in excess of $4 million a season, then his nontender makes a bit more sense. I like Rhodes, I really do, but not at that price.

Accoring to Michael Wolverton's Adjusted Runs Prevented for relievers, Guardado exceeded Rhodes 11.8 to 5.1 (that scale runs Eric Gagne 32.6 to Jaret Wright -28.3). By this metric neither of them ranked among to best 30 relievers in baseball. Rhodes was better in 2002 (14.4 versus 13.2) and also in 2001 (23.9 versus 19.9). Both seem to be in steady decline.

The problem, of course, with relievers' stats is that it takes just one bad start to skew a whole season, and sometimes just one pitch. Oh, it's painful to bring this up, but June 29 in San Diego Rhodes faced five batters and all five scored, the clincher being Rondell White's walk-off grand slam. That still stings to remember. But if you take out those five earned runs from Rhodes's line, his season ERA drops from 4.17 to 3.33. One pitch, nearly a full run on the season ERA. Too bad for Arthur that's just the nature of his job.

Oh, and my favorite quote from Guardado: "I like it that I'm on Edgar's side now," he quipped. "I don't have to face that guy no more" (MLB.com). Beautiful. And according to this headline, all I can deduce is he's bringing a third baseman and an entire bench with him.

Bob Finnigan is just on a roll this week. Today he's suggesting Freddy Garcia and Jeff Cirillo to San Diego for Phil Nevin. Ha! An oft-injured, 32-year-old, right handed hitter? It's so crazy managment might actually go for it. If we're going to dream about sunny southern California, Bob, let's ask for Sean Burroughs: left-handed and 23.

And Matt Welch has yet another Moneyball review to add to the collection.

2003-12-09T10:20:00.000-05:00

Puzzle pieces

Sometimes I'm really glad I'm not a general manager. To me, constructing a roster, and add to that an entire organization from the majors to rookie ball, is every bit an intimidating endeavor as one of those 1000-piece jigsaw puzzles--the ones where the pieces are no bigger than a contact lens.

How does he fit in the offense? How does he fit in the defense? How does he fit in the payroll? How does he fit in the clubhouse? How does he fit in the organization next year, and the year after that? All these jagged sides that have to match precisely. And if you're not on your toes, you wind up with the 2004 Brewers.

Man, I appreciate all GMs do. I can't imagine foregoing Thanksgiving with my family for work, as Theo Epstein did, especially when that work is making a sales pitch to a ballplayer to join my team.

That said, I'm quite content to sit back at my comfortable desk and play computer-chair-GM, to think of myself as some twisted incarnation of Waldorf & Statler.

Now I look at the Mariners and see holes at shortstop and/or third base and two spots on the bench. Maybe a starting pitcher. Maybe. Fourth outfielder definitely.

So, looking at the list of players not offered arbitration, I see promising candidates (thank you Transaction Guy). The bench currently contains Davis/Wilson, Willie Bloomquist and Greg Colbrunn. That takes care of catcher, all-purpose infield sub and pounder of left-handed pitching. So I'm in the market for a fourth outfielder and a pounder of right-handed pitching. Vlad Guerrero is the obvious first name, and its nice to finally see some mainstream Seattle media jump on the Vlad bandwagon.

Just remember what Michael Corleone once said: If history has taught us anything it's that we can sign anyone. No wait. Maybe that was Theo Epstein.

But I'm not getting my hopes up.

Then there's Pokey Reese. He may hit like a girl, but I'm told his defense is on a historic level. (And I've decided that my New Years resolution will be to finally figure out what all those numbers mean.) He steal bases and doesn't get caught. Pat Gillick has been infatuated with Pokey for years . And just imagine Rick Rizzs: "Pokey to Miggy (or Boonie to Pokey)! Double play!" Yeah, that'd be golden. Edgar's caddy, right here.

Jose Cruz, Jr. is still available. The one and only Offically Endorsed (apologies to USSM) Outfield of Mariners Musings is Raul Ibanez in left (by necessity), Ichiro in center, Jose Cruz in right. I've explained this in detail before.

There's Ben Grieve. He's hit .255/.366/.414 versus righties over the last three years. Those aren't blow-me-away numbers, but it's more than what John Mabry gave last year as the leftie off the bench.

Hey look, Al Martin's available. (snicker)

Every Mariner bloggers favorite pick, Matt Stairs is there. For the uninitiated, he's hit .270/.375/.517 against right-handed pitching over the last three years. The Royals want Stairs. Bill Bavasi, you should want him more.

We can cross Eduardo Perez off the list. He just signed a two-year, $1.7 million deal with the Devil Rays. Perez has hit .320/.418/.657 in 172 AB against left-handers the last two years. That's not a glaring need for the Mariners, but Perez is a primo, cheap role player.

Bob Finnigan takes a column today to speculate all the various scenarios for centerfield if Winn gets non-tendered. That is, all the scenarios except moving Ichiro to center. He does get bonus points for talking about Cruz, though, but Cruz in right, Ichiro in center makes much more since than vice a versa.

Not to be outdone by their cross town rivals jumping with gun with the Tejada offer last week, the P-I's lead Mariner story is "M's land Twins closer," which then goes on to say that sources confirm Guardado will be a Mariner by the end of the week. Now, I'm not anti-Eddie, but this is a bum deal. Only if Sasaki gets shipped to Japan for a couple of Orix Blue Wave Ichiro jerseys will this turn out with a happy ending, at least for we fans. The M's just paid $3+ million for a right handed setup man, and now $3+ million for a leftie setup man. When I said I wanted the M's to rival the Yankees I did not mean it in the category of most overpaid middle bullpen. Now if Sasaki is out of the picture, this is a more effective closer for half the price. If he's not, it's a scam. Did Arthur Rhodes have some kind of vicious falling out with management? There's no way he would have cost three years and $14 million. And Eddie's home/road ERA split (2.71/3.54) over the last three years concerns me just a little, though Safeco Field may help that.

I get this eerie feeling that Bavasi is a bit hasty to put his own fingerprints all over this team. But what do I know? I'm just the heckler.

My endorsed lineup as of today, December 7:

CF-Ichiro
RF-Junior Cruz
DH-Edgar
2B-Boone
SS-Miggy Tejada
1B-Olerud
LF-Ibanez
SS-Guillen
C-Davis

And the Mariners come to Pittsburgh June 18-20, and that means one thing: Road trip!

Friday's my birthday, Bill Bavasi. I want to see Miguel Tejada in Mariner blue and teal.

2003-12-08T10:32:00.000-05:00

They paved centerfield and put up a parking lot

"It's weird what happened. It's crazy this feeling I'm left with," Cameron said after speaking with Bavasi. "It's like your dad tells you to get the hell out of the house. 'We still love you, son ... but you can't come back'" (Finnigan, Times).
I'm sad. I'm going to miss that goofy grin, that cap askew, that untucked jersey the moment the final out of each game was made, and those quotes like the one above. Watching Mike Cameron, I'm reminded that baseball is indeed a kid's game, and that there is nothing more fun in all the world than playing baseball.

And for that, Mike Cameron, I thank you.

Every fly ball to the outfield in Safeco became a race: the baseball versus Mike Cameron. Who would reach that plot of grass first? My money was never on that ball. More often than not, the baseball never even had a chance. Faster than a speeding double in the gap, able to pull back home runs with a single leap, Mike Cameron plays centerfield with the virtuoso skill of a master artist.

How many times did I watch over and over on my computer Torii Hunter's home run to left field, Randy Winn country, when all of a sudden Cameron at full speed leaps against the wall and pulls it back? Too many to count. The picture was my monitor's wallpaper for weeks after. Were I 8 years old again and playing Little League, I'd want to be a centerfielder, after watching Mike Cameron.

In in interview with Rick Rizzs in Spring Training 2002, Cameron was asked what the clubhouse music for the new season was going to be. "Same as last year," he replied. "Off the Wall by Michael Jackson." Indeed, Cameron. Life ain't so bad it all when you live it off the wall... especially if it's the wall with the big yellow "405" on it.

Cameron finishes his 4-year career in Seattle with a batting line of .246/.358/.448 with 87 home runs, 115 doubles, 296 walks, 353 runs scored, 344 runs batted in, 106 stolen bases in 133 tries (80%) in 2162 at bats, and yes, 601 strike outs.

And it's those strikeouts that his critics are running him out of town with. But if we counted groundouts to second or maybe benign lazy flyballs to left maybe your favorite player wouldn't look so great anymore. An out is an out, and there is no such thing as a "productive out." An offense is allowed just 27 chances, and to swing and miss three times is no different than a ground out on the first pitch. John Olerud has grounded in 76 double plays over the last four seasons. That's nearly double what Edgar, the next guy, has (47), and no one's running him out of Seattle.

The thick irony here is that the hacking-est Mariner of all is a beloved Pacific Northwest icon. Matt over at his blog has a pretty damning theory on this. For the sake of controversy, it's a pretty cheap shot. Pulling the race card is a bit like walking into a Pentecostal church and proclaiming, "Thus saith the Lord." I mean, what can you really say in response? I, for one, don't feel qualified to comment as I missed out on the Buhner years in Seattle.

I do know the objective evidence, and here's the career Mariner leaders watching strike three go by:

SEATTLE MARINERS

CAREER



STRIKEOUTS                      SO     

1    Jay Buhner                 1375   

2    Edgar Martinez             1095   

3    Ken Griffey Jr.             984   

4    Jim Presley                 713   

5    Dan Wilson                  672   

6    Alex Rodriguez              616   

7    Mike Cameron                601   

8    Alvin Davis                 549   

9    Phil Bradley                448   

10   Dave Henderson              439

Obviously longevity with the club affects that list. So here's the list versus the league average:

SEATTLE MARINERS

CAREER



STRIKEOUTS                      DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   

1    Jay Buhner                  521     1375      854   

2    Jim Presley                 231      713      482   

3    Mike Cameron                203      601      398   

4    Dave Henderson              128      439      311   

T5   Phil Bradley                115      448      333   

T5   Ken Phelps                  115      337      222   

7    Mike Blowers                114      351      237   

8    Russ Davis                  113      395      282   

9    Lee Stanton                  89      195      106   

10   Gorman Thomas                81      208      127

So Cameron is third on the all-time Mariner strikeout list versus the league average, and less than half of Jay Buhner.

Mike, I'll miss you. Please don't sign with Oakland. Be afraid, Ryan Franklin. Be very afraid. You too, Shiggy.

"He's just a little bit out of reach for us if we want to, like I said, build up a more complete offense" (Andrieson, P-I).

Ah, Bill Bavasi, way to step up and play with the big boys. I know, I know, that pseudo-$92 million just isn't enough, is it?

And I've got to say goodbye to Arthur Rhodes. Wait for it. Wait for it. I know it's coming. "Yankees sign leftie setup man Arthur Rhodes." You can't convince me it's not coming.

Rhodes has that classic bulldog look you love to see come out of the bullpen. It's not a look I'd like to see in a darkened alley. Flashy diamond earring. Furrowed brow. Scowl that would make small children cry. Mid-90s fastball. Hard, hard slider. And, Bill, you're telling me you've got better, cheaper options at hand? I've gotta see this because I'm missing something.

Like Cameron, Rhodes was another Gillick acquisition in the winter of 2000. Arthur's four-year Mariner career: 261 innings, 3.07 ERA, 289 strikeouts (9.97/9 IP), 72 walks (2.48/9 IP), 19 home runs (0.66/9 IP). Not too shabby at all.

It's a sad day in Seattle. Except for the Pat Borders family. If the above transactions were not disturbing enough to my faint heart, that the "club has a special relationship with" a third string catcher who has seen a grand total of 24 at bats over three season with the organization makes me hang my head in shame. Was Borders orphaned as a youngster and raised by the Gillick family? Did he save Gillick's life in the war? Is he privy to information that would compromise the character of Mr. Gillick? On second thought, I don't need to know any specifics of their "special relationship."

And the P-I has confirmed Finnigan's assumptions from Friday, though their writers can't exactly agree on it. On Saturday, John Hickey quotes Bavasi, "'I don't know that that kind of market exists anymore,' Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said in confirming the offer to Tejada."

In today's edition, David Andriesson writes, "Bavasi also confirmed publicly for the first time yesterday that the Mariners were bidding on Oakland free agent shortstop Miguel Tejada, though he stopped short of saying Seattle had made a formal offer."

With Kaz Matsui now a Met, I'll be disappointed if Tejada is not a Mariner by the end of the week. That is, unless the now teamless Vlad Guerrero falls in our lap.

2003-12-05T09:35:00.000-05:00

Semantics, schmantics

I just have to love journalism. It's the clever, manipulative wordplay that makes me chuckle. Maybe I'm just cynical.

Take for instance today's Mariners piece in the Times. Headline: "M's offer Tejada 3-year contract." Hell, that got my attention.

Second paragraph:
"To that end, the Mariners are believed to have offered Oakland free-agent shortstop Miguel Tejada a contract thought to be three years at $24 million to $25 million, with an option for a fourth year" (Finnigan, emphasis my own).
Not quite the same thing now, is it? Maybe the headline writer knows something Mr. Finnigan doesn't. Who knows. The Mariners aren't talking, so what better thing to do than toss out suppositions such as this to the Mariners' faithful following whose only satisfaction in the sports page is the Mariners news (of which, I confess, I am one). But then, like I said, maybe I am just cynical.

No source even hinted, named or unnamed, simply the passive voice "are believed." Are believed by whom? Bill Bavasi? Wishful fans? A creative sportswriter? The office mailroom? The junior varsity pitching staff of Cascade High School? A band of rabid Pacific Northwestern squirrels?

Three years and $24-25 million, if true (big if, still pending confirmation from anywhere by anybody), sounds about right for Tejada. If Detroit wants to grossly outdo that (and that ludicrous Juan Gonzalez contract offer of a few winters back comes to mind), perhaps Mr. Tejada would do well to contact Mr. Rodriguez and discuss the pros and cons of selling one's soul to a last place team with a future built on a house of cards.

This quote's a gem, though, regarding New York's confirmed offer to the other shortstop: "'It appears, if that news is right, that Matsui will be a Met,' a Mariners source said." And there was much rejoicing.

Then there's the sexy rumor of Texas and Boston exchanging high-priced, disgruntled, extraordinarily talented ballplayers, as discussed in the Dallas Morning News (registration required, but if that's against your religious beliefs Bambino's Curse offers excerpts and commentary, ESPN.com quotes the meat of it, while the Bremertonians reposted the entire thing). I have every faith in Theo Epstein & Co. to pull something crazy out of their collective magician's hat sooner rather than later, and were this to happen, it would give Boston the unfortunate conundrum of carrying two superstar shortstops. What to do? The story mentions Anaheim and Los Angeles as teams looking for a shortstop. Not Seattle. Are the Mariners just not interested in Garciaparra? Or is the baseball world absolutely convinced that the Mariners will land either Tejada or Matsui? Hmm... things to ponder.

And one year, $4 million for Cameron? What a slap in the face. I'm sorry to see you go out like that, Cammie.

Which makes me wonder about something else: In centerfield, are the Mariners thinking long-term to the cream of next year's free agent crop, my favorite--and should be yours too--Carlos Beltran? Naw, couldn't be... could it?

2003-12-04T10:39:00.000-05:00

Let's play dominoes

On the one hand, M's president Chuck Armstrong is aware that there actually is a free agent available by the name of Vlad Guerrero. On the other, and I quote: "There is some interest, but it's very down on the agenda. We have to formulate an idea what we want to do with Mike Cameron and Randy Winn in the outfield" (Hickey, P-I).

Hmm... an outfield of Ibanez/Cameron/Winn/Ichiro or an outfield of Ibanez/Ichiro/Guerrero. Decisions, decisions. Okay, someone remind me why this is a tough call? It's December 4, Chuck. I don't need to hear that you have yet to "formulate an idea" about your outfield for next year.

Meanwhile, a Yankee fan mocks us.

Many juicy tibits in the Times as well. The Phillies acquired starter Eric Milton from the Twins. That gives them a current rotation of Randy Wolf, Vincente Padilla, Brett Myers and Milton. Add prospect Cole Hamels to the list, and that's a pretty solid 5-man rotation. If you remember, Philadelphia was once rumored to be interested in Freddy Garcia. With the Milton trade, I believe we can scratch the Phils off the list of possible places of exile for Freddy. I can see Philadelphia making a move for a top-of-the-rotation starter, but I don't see Freddy as that starter.

What that trade does for Minnesota, though, is free them some money to retain their closer Eddie Guardado. The wrinkle here is apparently the M's are pursuing Guardado, and Guardado would like to play on the west coast. "Seattle is more serious," he says, than his other suitors. Now if this is the case, then the Sasaki-to-Japan rumors are quite serious indeed. Sasaki is history if the M's are seriously pursuing Everyday Eddie.

Something to keep in mind about Eddie: He likes the Metrodome. At home last season, his ERA was 1.75 as he allowed just 7 runs, struck out 34, walked only 6 and allowed 2 home runs in 36 innings. On the road, however, his ERA was 4.30 as he allowed 14 runs, struck out 26, walked 8 and gave up 5 home runs in 29.1 innings. That's a big difference. Over the last three years, his home/road ERA split is 2.71/3.54, and his home runs allowed is 6/15. It's just food for thought to temper the hot stove fantasies.

He's a left-handed closer, and those don't exactly grow on trees. And he's death on lefties: .195/.217/.262. At 33, he's younger than both Hasegawa and Sasaki. Personally, I kind of like the sound of a bullpen tandem of Mateo-Rhodes-Guardado more than any combination involving Hasegawa and Sasaki. But that's just me.

The NY Mets have thrown out the opening bid for the services of Kaz Matsui: 3 years, $21 million. Boy, I'd hate to see the Mariners try and top that. I'd also hate to see the Mets force Jose Reyes to second all for the sake of Matsui. But it sure sounds like the Mets, don't it?

And if the Mets can do us all a favor and take Matsui off the market, that leaves Baltimore, LA, Anaheim and Seattle to battle over Tejada. And don't rule out the crafty Brian Sabean if Rich Aurilia indeed leaves for higher altitude. If the Mariners want a statement move that improves the team, and they don't care about Guerrero, Tejada is it. (Go on Jeremy, you can say it if you must.) Adding to the list of things I'd hate to see is learning that Guardado is the M's #1 priority at this point.

For those who still think Cameron should be forever banished from Seattle because of his .253 batting average, he collected more Win Shares last year than Edgar Martinez, Derek Jeter, Hank Blalock, Trot Nixon and Rafael Palmeiro. That's how valuable his defense is.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, we are all cordially invited to vote on the Internet Hall of Fame ballot. I know I will be, but also know I take these voting things far too seriously. I get frustrated because to decide whose careers should be memorialized and whose should be forgotten in the pages of the baseball encyclopedias one needs a standard. The BBWAA doesn't have one, thus the current Hall can't be one. I still haven't taken the time to come up with my own, and that's my dilemma. Ranting Mike gets the ball rolling, especially if you buy into all of Bill James's ideas, and I've still got a month to decide. Come on, though Pete, this isn't rocket science. I mean, Cecil Fielder?

Last but not least, USS Mariner prospect maven Dave Cameron will be chatting next week on Prospectus. One can submit questions in advance here.

2003-12-03T10:21:00.000-05:00

Everybody's talkin'

All this talk and this talk (particularly posts #8 and #37, thanks to Ryan) about the Yankees brings to mind this story in the Onion from last year. It's like deja vu all over again.

Also while browsing the boards of Primer, I found this thread on Jamie Moyer. The conversation wanders toward the end, but the premise is the question: How much longer does Jamie Moyer have to pitch before he's Hall of Fame worthy? Sadly, I don't see a solid answer given. And sadly, I don't think I can provide one at the moment, either.

It's his time with the Mariners that even warrants a discussion. But even if you isolate his career to just his Seattle years, I don't know if you can qualify him as Hall of Fame worthy--very good, yes, but not Hall of Fame.

I tried to see where his ERA ranked among his peers each year, and it's not until you get to 1996-2003 (150 innings/season) that he finally cracks the top ten. Despite half that time in a very favorable pitcher's park, pitching for an excellent team, he still trails Pedro Martinez, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Al Leiter and Mike Mussina. Certainly there are Hall of Famers on that list, and I'm sure there are still some outside of Seattle that would be surprised to hear Jamie Moyer's name mentioned in that company, but I think he'd have to pitch until he's at least 50 at his current level to warrant inclusion in the Hall. I'm just throwing that out there though. I've got all winter to ruminate some complicated formula to scientifically calcuate just how many more years Jamie should go.

It's been predicted for several years now that this is the year that Moyer loses all effectiveness, and when it goes, it will be fast and furious. If that's the case, I sure don't want to be around to see it. That will be a sad day.

And in other talk, there's a discussion out as to favorite baseball writers. Fascinating.

I suppose I can't really enter that discussion without processing exactly why I'm here and why I do this.

First of all, I just flat out love to read and write. I picked literature as my major in college, because I loved to read and write. I feel absolutely blessed to have found a job where I get paid to read all day, and interesting stuff at that (I was beginning to lose hope). There's something about language, a good story, a well-crafted image that just makes me feel alive like nothing else.

Michael Lewis quoted Bill James in Moneyball, something to the effect of--"Even if there were no baseball, I'd still be a writer. But because there is, I can't imagine writing about anything else." Something like that. One of these days I'll have to look it up again. But it echoes my sentiments exactly. Oh there are other things I think about during the day, but there's just something so much fun about baseball.

I had a teacher my senior year of college who encouraged me to never stop writing. So this is my outlet. And, I guess in a Joseph Campbell sort of way, it offers me a connection with my dad. Dad's no sports fan, but he's a huge writing fan. He's had numerous short stories published and still working on finding a publisher for that children's novel. He's a student of the craft, and while we can't talk baseball (at least in terms of numbers of any kind), we can talk about the creative process of writing. I'd have to say the highlight of this year for me has been Game 6 of the World Series, and not just because the Yankees lost. More importantly, it was because I experienced it in a cabin in the woods of central Virginia, just me and my dad. I am 25 years old and that was the first time I have ever experienced a game just me and Dad.

So what writers do I enjoy most? My favorites are the ones where I find a my own love affair with this silly game reflected back to me. I find myself attracted to true writers, and not just fans with opinions and internet savvy. So in no particular order...

Ed Cossette - Talk about passionate love affair. What Ed communicates to me is both the community and star-crossed destiny that is New England baseball. So many blogs spend their time number crunching (I'm guilty as charged), it gets numbing after a while. I love the morality play that Ed articulates and the literary angle he offers to the blogosphere. That and I'm also fascinated by the lore of Red Sox tradition, that whole idea that I'm a fan because dad was a Red Sox fan and grandpa was a Red Sox fan, that concept of baseball community. That doesn't exist in Seattle, and the closest parallel where I came from is Sooner football, and I know that's a reach of a comparison.

Alex Belth - Yankees/Red Sox matchups are priceless just to read these two side by side. His interviews with writers fascinate me to no end, and his man-on-the-NY-street anecdotes are some of the best writing on the internet.

Derek Zumsteg - I've been reading Prospectus for about five years now, and Derek was the first to really stand out to me, mostly because I could tell he was a Seattle fan. I find his best work on Prospectus when his Mariner fandom comes out. His column on Edgar's last at bat I'd say was my favorite column/article to come out this year. How are you going to top that when Edgar really retires, D?

Joe Sheehan - I must confess I'm not a current Prospectus subscriber (I'm still working on that), but nothing makes me want to be more than the opportunity to read more Sheehan. A more insightful fan/writer of baseball you will not find.

Alan Schwatz - I got addicted to his interviews on ESPN this past year. Through him I had the epiphany that a player is not an OPS (or pick your favorite stat), but they are human beings with stories to tell. Good stories, bad stories, tragic stories; every player is a story. Not in a journalistic sense, but more a Greek tragic hero sense. At least to me.

Steven Goldman - Yes it's the freakin' Y*S network, but a co-worker introduced me to the Pinstriped Bible, and well, every team deserves a writer that makes so much damned sense. But maybe not the Brewers.

Jon Weisman - Maybe for this post alone:

But my god, this site is nowhere near the quality I want it to be. It is thrown together, rapid-fire, a machine gun barely under control, spraying bullets every which way. It has the potential to meet or surpass what others do, but I can't seem to make it happen. I can't find the resources to take the extra base when it's there - and god, it's right there, all the time. So little time is spent refining the writing, which means so much to me. I settle for the obvious words. I let stand a turn of phrase that's an obvious stretch. It's not enough to wipe away the blessings, but it's frustrating. I crave doing better. I want to be the storyteller, the unequivocal storyteller.
I'll second that, Jon. I'll second that.

So how about you? What do you read and why? Feel free to join Will's discussion or leave a comment below. Just be wary of the machine gun bullets.

So to Dad, and all the names mentioned above that might see this, I must take a mushy moment and say thanks for writing, and thanks for writing about baseball.

2003-12-02T09:38:00.000-05:00

You gotta know when to hold 'em

As I stated yesterday, I'm all for the M's competing for free agents with the Yankees and Red Sox. The trick, it seems, is in picking the right free agents to get into a bidding war over.

So Shiggy Hasagawa's agent is countering the M's offer, and he's got those two little words--Yankees and Red Sox--to throw in the negotiating fire.

Just how much would you overpay for a 35-year-old right-hander coming off a career year despite a career-low strikeout rate?

In nearly every facet of his game, Shigetoshi Hasegawa put together a fantastic 2003. His ERA was a career-best 1.48. For the first time in his career he was given the Closer role and saved 16 of 17 games. He allowed just 5 homer runs, 18 walks and a measly 12 runs in 73 innings.

One might say that the reason the Mariners lasted as long as they did in the pennant race was Hasegawa's phenomenal pitching. He allowed just 4 runs, walked 7 and struck out 21 the entire first half. His ERA at the All-Star break was 0.77. He was allowing runs like Bud Selig allows common sense.

But a contributing factor to the wheels coming off in September was Hasagawa. In the month of September, Shiggy went 1-3, with his only blown save and a 5.06 ERA. He allowed as many runs in September as he had the entire rest of the season. He walked 7 and struck out only 4 batters.

For his career, he's posted a 3.49 ERA, been an above average pitcher, despite a strikeout rate below the league average. While with the Angels, he struggled for consistency. When his strikeout rate decreased, his ERA went up. When the strikeouts went up, the ERA went down. Upon coming to the Mariners, both went down.

              ERA   K/9



1997 Angels   3.93  6.40

1998 Angels   3.14  6.75

1999 Angels   4.91  5.14

2000 Angels   3.58  5.55

2001 Angels   4.04  6.63

2002 Mariners 3.20  4.99

2003 Mariners 1.48  3.95

All this to say that Shiggy's success is a direct result of the defense behind him. As his ability to overpower batter's decreases precipitously, his reliance on his teammates increases dramatically. Or maybe he already trusts completely in the eight guys behind him as the best defense in baseball, and feels all he needs to do is let the hitter put the ball in play, just inside the ballpark.

Either way, by all accounts, Mike Cameron will not be tracking down fly balls in center next year. Rey Sanchez will not be sucking up grounders at short. Jeff Cirillo will not be handling the hot corner. Shiggy's pitching and the Mariners defense last year were outstanding, but there's a symbiotic relationship there that I hope the front office realizes. You can't sacrifice defense, which the Mariners are in the process of doing, and expect a pitcher like Hasegawa to maintain his same level of effectiveness.

And Shiggy's not going to be a Closer in Seattle next year. Not with Kaz Sasaki on the payroll for $8 million. And just how wise is it to throw $3-4 million at a right-handed set-up man with right-handed pitching a dime a dozen sitting in Tacoma and San Antonio?

The Mariners need to step to the plate when it comes to negotiating with free agents against Boston and New York. But Shigetoshi Hasegawa is not that free agent.

2003-12-01T08:57:00.000-05:00

A new day

Today's December 1. I love December. I love the Advent season. I can remember as a kid having those Advent calendars, opening one of those little windows for each day of the month. And as a kid, December was the greatest month of the year. First, there's my birthday, and then Christmas. Now, as an adult baseball fan, there's the rumor-fest that is the winter meetings. And this year mark your calendars for December 20. That's the last day teams can offer arbitration-eligible players a contract, and all our free agent speculation gets thrown out the window.

But most importantly Advent represents a season of new hope, a season when the shackles of darkness are shattered and a new dawn breaks. With the news that Curt Schilling will be pitching in Boston, Gary Sheffield will be manning right field in Yankee Stadium, and this gnawing feeling that I'm a sucker to be a Mariner fan, today's a pretty good day to turn the calendar and start fresh. (sigh)

Wouldn't it be grand if the Mariners just came swooping out the sky and snatched up Vlad Guerrero? (And I mean that in the free-agent signing sense, certainly not the kidnapping sense of the phrase.) (sigh)

Yes, in a perfect world the Mariners front office would match those Big Meanies, the Sox and Yanks, if not dollar for dollar, then pound for pound in crafty resourcefulness, guile and urgency for a championship. While both this weekend's major moves are bold statement moves, they are also moves that address gaping holes. That Yankee linuep, 1-8, is going to be one scary lineup. And Schilling in Boston takes an enormous load off Pedro's shoulders.

Hey Bill Bavasi, your opponents out East just countered your silly Ibanez move and put you in check. It's your move. Don't blow it.

And the more I think about, the more I'm crumbling to the idea of making a serious move for Miggy Tejada. Network Coliseum suppressed offense more than Safeco Field did. Over the past three years, Tejada has hit .304/.361/.499 on the road. If he can rack up 100+ RBI hitting behind the likes of Terrence Long, Chris Singleton and Scott Hatteberg, he should lead the league batting fifth behind Ichiro, Boone and Edgar. And Tejada and Boone would make the most sure-handed double play combo in baseball. Three years for $25 million? Money is not my specialty, so I really shouldn't go there. He'd be a deal at that price, but I'd be very concerned to see more than that go on the table. By all accounts, Anaheim, LA and Baltimore, especially, seem like they're eager to go much beyond that. Let them, but I'm convinced Kaz Matsui isn't even in the same ballpark as Tejada, both offensively and defensively.

Is it too much to ask for a bold statement that improves the team? The options are slim, few and far between at this point already.

2003-11-26T10:16:00.000-05:00

Fun (yes, fun) with numbers

Go read Derek's freebie at Prospectus. Derek gets it. He gets it better than most. He gets it in a way I only wish the dolts in the offices at First and Royal Brougham would.

But if you really want to chase a pitcher out of the game, don't make outs. That sounds stupid, but I'm entirely serious... If a team's intent is to seize on the minor advantage of facing middle relief, it's important to realize that getting more pitches is never more important than hitting those pitches. And that's what good hitters do: work the count in their favor, so they can reach a favorable hitter's count and whack the ensuing fat pitch. The best-hitting teams are the ones that pile patience together with batting ability. Sounds simple, yet too many teams still struggle with the concept.

Then there's his little impassioned plea on his blog: "A team has 27 outs, and not making outs is how you score runs. OBP is the life of an offense."

Can I hear an "Amen!"? Can I get a witness in the house tonight?

If I'm building a team, I want to know one thing about a player: Does he not make outs?

So on with the fun numbers:

86 days until pitchers and catchers report.

99 days until the first exhibition game (geez, this is like watching water boil).

Mariners catchers combined to hit .235/.276/.354 last year with 34 walks and 33 doubles and 10 homers. Yikes! My lord, and no one's talking about upgrading the catcher. That's just a massive black hole in the lineup. Even if you give Davis four starts a week, is the Davis/Wilson platoon still really worth it?

As a team, the Mariners hit .363/.365/.528 when they swung at the first pitch (652 at bats). Randy Winn was the most successful (.471 OBP, 67 AB). Dan Wilson was the least (.222 OBP, 35 AB). Just for kicks, Ichiro did it the most times (102 AB, .382 OBP).

Swinging 0-1, they hit .324/.333/.469 (537 AB). Ichiro excelled most in this scenario (.483 OBP with 3 homers, 58 AB). Mike Cameron did not (.162 OBP, 37 AB).

However, swinging 1-0, they hit .333/.333/.508 (516 AB). If you are a major league pitcher reading this, do not, I repeat do not, give Edgar a first pitch ball. He will crush you. He will crush like not even Barry Bonds knows how: .515/.529/1.590, 5 homers, 33 AB.

As a team, the M's had little difference in success swinging on the second pitch whether the first one was a ball or a strike.

Swinging 1-2, the M's hit .187/.193/.271 (804 AB). In this scenario, John Olerud comes out on top (if you can really call it that, .244 OBP in 77 AB). Carlos Guillen is the bottom (.100 OBP, 49 AB). Pitchers, get Edgar 1-2 and he's eating out of the palm of your hand: .188/.188/.275 with 2 XBH in 69 AB.

Swinging 2-1, they hit .345/.342/.573 (368 AB, and if anyone can describe the scenario how an OBP can be less than a batting average, I'd appreciate it, my mind's a little stuck on that at the moment.) Mike Cameron loves this scenario: .433/.433/.933 with more than half his base hits for extra bases. Again, Carlos Guillen finds this a bit challenging: .200/.200/.200, but in just 20 AB.

So what are we learning, boys and girls? Odds for success matter more in the first three pitches than just the first pitch. The battle for the at bat is essentially a best-of-three challenge. It would help if ESPN offered the stats for after any given count in addition to just the scenarios of each count. But that's a start, and I ain't complaining.

And to add a little motivation to the Eduardo Perez/Matt Stairs/Brad Fullmer/Pokey Reese (though I'm more interested in Pokey's magic vacuum glove and never-caught-stealing abilities than his bat) hot stove talk, the Mariners bench hit .154/.250/.269. That's a whopping 8 for 52 with just 2 home runs (one by Colbrunn, one by Cameron), 6 walks, 15 strikeouts and 7 RBI. John Mabry was by far Bob Melvin's number one bat off the bench. He received 19 at bats (more than McLemore, Davis and Bloomquist combined as pinch hitters) and hit .053/.217/.053. His only hit was a single.

For comparison's sake, Oakland's bench hit .231/.297/.330 with 1 homer, 6 doubles, 9 walks, 30 strikeouts, 14 RBI in 91 at bats. Ken Macha used a pinch hitter nearly twice as often as Bob Melvin. Billy McMillon hit .360/.429/.520 in 25 pinch hit at bats.

Anaheim's bench hit .330/.392/.466 with 9 doubles, a homer, 7 walks, 23 strikeouts, 17 RBI in 88 at bats. Mike Scioscia used a pinch hitter nearly twice as often as Bob Melvin. Jeff DaVanon hit .375/.412/.500 in 16 pinch hit AB, and Shawn Wooten hit .500/.538/.583 in 12 pinch hit AB.

Texas's bench hit .177/.292/.226 with 3 doubles, no homers, 9 walks, 14 strikeouts and 6 RBI in a Melvin-esque 62 at bats. The Rangers have a bench of pinch hitters I can look at and not feel so bad.

Memo to Bill Bavasi: Buy some professional hitters for a bench, please. No, Willie Bloomquist doesn't count.

Memo to Bob Melvin: Use that bench. You have a 25-man roster for a reason, and it's not so Edgar can have a different pinch runner for each day of the week.

2003-11-25T09:40:00.000-05:00

Land of the rising sun

The hype machine continues. Seattlite Masayoshi Niwa has provided a special column to ESPN on Kaz Matsui. Niwa points first to the Mariners as a fit for Matsui:

If he sticks to his desire to play shortstop, the Mariners are a front-runner and talk about moving oft-injured Carlos Guillen to third base where he played the final month of the 2003 season. When alerted to the availability of the Mariners shortstop position during the Japan-U.S. All-Star game, Matsui replied without a moment's hesitation: ''How about Guillen?'' That's a strong indication he knows and cares about the Mariners. Without a doubt, the Mariners want to have Kazuo too. I met a Nintendo executive in August and while he had no power for scouting and recruiting, we discussed Matsui. He worried about having four Japanese players on the same team (Ichiro, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Shigetoshi Hasegawa also play for the Mariners), but that probably won't be an issue as long as the team wins. It seemed that they were ready to consider it.

Niwa also drops the Dodgers and Yankees as definite suitors, but it's certainly nice to know Kaz cares about the Mariners. If Art Theil's portrayal of Mr. Yamauchi is an accurate portrait (and if you haven't picked up Out of Left Field yet, it's time to go shop for an early Christmas present for yourself), then filling the shortstop hole is out of Bill Bavasi's control and Miguel Tejada is not an option.

Color me skeptical, but I find it hard to get worked up about the inevitable sight of Matsui in a Mariners uniform. I'm going to start counting the times I see quotes linking the phrases "Kaz Matsui" and "real deal." I could have sworn I saw it in this column, but I was wrong. I guess it's become some sort of Pavlovian response for me. Fill in the blank: Kaz Matsui is ______, and the first thing that's pops into my mind is "the real deal." And just what does that quantify? Anyway, back to Niwa's column.

To me, the most entertaining point is the quotes given by Robert Whiting, "the widely respected author of the definitive book Japanese baseball, 'You Gotta Have Wa.'" Apart from coming up with great book titles, Mr. Whiting makes some rather intriguing comments about Kaz the ballplayer:

"If he wants to, he can hit home runs, and if he wants average, he can hit around .350."

God, I love the power of positive thinking. Ichiro had a .353 career batting average in Japan. In three years in Seattle, it's .328. His last season with the Blue Wave he hit .387 and then hit .350 for the Mariners the next season, a 10% drop. Hideki Matsui hit .304 for his career in Japan. In his final Japanese season, he hit .334, and then in New York last season he hit .287. That's a 14% drop. Kaz Matsui has a career .309 batting average in Japan. Last season he hit .305. If he can will himself to .350, I'd love to see him give that a shot. But seriously George, that just ain't gonna happen. A 10-15% drop in batting average for Kaz means .260-.275 is a realistic hope.

But it gets better. I would actually nominate this for most nonsensical quote of 2003.

As for his fielding, Whiting says, ''He reminds us of Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez. They are all powerful and speedy.''

So is Kaz a defensive black hole and severe liability? Or is he multiple gold glove potential? Or are Jeter and Rodriguez the only American League shortstops you've heard of, Mr. Whiting?

In other news, Bob Finnigan reports the rumor that the Yomiuri Giants are desparate for bullpen help and may inquire as to the availability of Kaz Sasaki, even the possibility of a trade. Now before my mind starts racing to possible scenarios ("Do you think they have an availabe decent, breathing, third baseman?"), there are several keywords in just the opening of this article, among them "published report... suggested," "either have called the Mariners or intend to do so." In other words, nothing has happened. In other words, it's a slow day for Mariner news. Bavasi's take: "We are not shopping him around."

Indeed, just how do you shop a soon-to-be 36-year-old closer, coming off an injury-plagued season, and on the books for $8 million?

And go say hey to Steve. He blogs. He likes the Mariners. He's not a card-carrying member of the Freddy Garcia Fan Club.

2003-11-24T09:44:00.000-05:00

Hot corner blues

Third base was my absolute favorite position to play in Little League. Third base was where the action was. You see, I had started my budding baseball career as a corner outfielder. A couple of years later, Coach decided to take a look at me at third. It was beautiful. During baseball practice, Coach would seemingly forget about us outfielders, hitting double play grounders to the infield for what seemed like hours. There was nothing to do but kill grass, kick ant-hills and sweat in the Oklahoma heat. But graduation to the infield--that was action; that was baseball. The only problem was I had the arm of Kenny Lofton at third base. If you can imagine these lofty, slow-motion, rainbow-arched throws across the diamond, you can see why my career at third base ended at the age of 13.

With that said, though, I'm staring at the hitting line for Mariners' third basemen, and it's slowing motivating me to check into the price to Greyhound tickets to Peoria come February. But it could just be the November-withdrawals starting to get to me.

.243/.321/.340 with 64 walks and 38 extra base hits in 573 at bats.

Jeff Cirillo wasn't even half the problem. He accounts for 45% of the at bats by Mariners' third basemen. Carlos Guillen acounts for 21% and had a .749 OPS at 3B. Willie Bloomquist saw 18% of the action with an .824 OPS as a third baseman. Mark McLemore accounts for another 16% and had an OPS of .624. And for some reason, Pat Borders collected two at bats at third base. He hit a double, which gives him an OPS of 1.500.

Now who do you want to see man the hot corner in 2004? McLemore is gone. Cirillo is guaranteed to be gone. Guillen should be at short if cooler heads prevail over those that would break the piggy bank for Kaz Matsui or Miguel Tejada. Bloomquist is a part-timer at best. So if you're Bill Bavasi and Bob Melvin, what do you do? Sign Joe Randa? Vinny Castilla? Tony Batista? Robin Ventura? Man, oh man, is the third baseman market thin.

I know I'll be rooting for Justin Leone in spring training. The Mariners last week placed Leone on the 40-man roster, protecting him from next month's Rule V draft. I'm hoping this means he'll get a hard look in spring training. He was last year's Texas League Player of the Year as he hit .288/.405/.541 with 92 walks, 38 doubles and 21 home runs in 455 at bats for Double-A San Antonio. At first glance, one sees those numbers and the voice-in-the-head screams, "What was he doing in AA all that time when Willie Bloomquist is starting at third? Why, why, why?" I tell you why: Justin Leone was 26 last year, and you downright expect major league talent to blister Texas League pitching at the age of 26.

What other ballplayers were born in 1977 (Justin's birthday is March 9 if you want to mark your calendar and send him a card come spring training)? Maybe some guys you've heard of: A.J. Burnett, Jay Gibbons, Ben Davis, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, Roy Halladay, Kerry Wood, Mark Mulder, Eric Hinske, Juan Pierre, Roy Oswalt, Eric Chavez. Imagine just what any of these guys would have done against AA competition last year and you can see why Leone isn't heralded as the second-coming of Mike Schmidt or George Brett. He's just too old.

Maybe last year was a fluke season for him. Who knows. He was the 13th-round pick by the Mariners in the '99 draft. He has a career batting average in the minors of .259 and career slugging percentage of .487. His second pro season looked promising with Rookie-ball Wisconsin in 2000 at age 23 (.267 AVG, .513 SLG with 79 walks, 32 doubles, 18 homers in 374 at bats). That earned him a promotion to A-ball San Bernadino, where he hit more home runs (22) but struggled to make contact. His batting average dropped to .233 while his strikeouts leaped up to 158. This doomed him to repeat A-ball again in 2002 at the age of 25--an age at which most major leaguers have already made their debut.

Maybe last year was a breakout season for him. Who knows. Expecting him to be the savior for the Mariners at third base is wild, wishful thinking, though. But perhaps, in a situation with no better options, the Mariners will take the risk of giving Leone every chance in spring training. Maybe, just maybe, they'll take a hard look at internal, cheap alternative instead of throwing money at another aging, overpriced, mediocre veteran.

It almost sounds like the tagline of B-movie trailer: Coming this spring... Root for the little guy!

I know I will be.

2003-11-21T09:30:00.000-05:00

Can he play the guitar, though?

The world weighs in on Raul Ibanez: There's Aaron Gleeman (in the second half of the post), Seth Stohs of Seth Speaks, Bryan Smith of Wail 'Til Next Year, David Pinto of Baseball Musings and Christian the Transaction Guy.

Let's get a couple of things straight on Raul Ibanez and the Mariners. As a club, the Mariners are after a certain culture, shall we say, with their ballplayers. Solid character. Community involvement. Family guy. Toes the company line. Also, local ties are a big plus. See Jamie Moyer. See Dan Wilson. See John Olerud. See Mark McLemore. See Willie Bloomquist. See Jeff Nelson shipped out.

Look me in the eye and tell me the Mariner PR department did not hit a home run with the signing of Raul Ibanez. He loves Safeco. His wife loves Seattle. Raul Jr. sat on dad's lap for the press conference. Now just what message does that send to Mariner fans?

There's a niche of fans who want to see a World Series in Seattle, that want to see the team improve on the field with every transaction with numbers to back that up. Cost be damned. Image and tools and chemistry, clutch and batting average be damned.

There's another niche of fans who simply want a wholesome entertainment option for the whole family, who want to point their kids to noble role models. It should come as no shock to day-in-day-out Mariner fans who Howard Lincoln & Co. are catering to.

Oh the Mariners know where the money is. And it's not in the pockets of the twenty-something, single, stathead guy (or gal) with season tickets. It's in the pockets of every mom and dad with jelly-faced T-ballers.

Don't get me wrong. I admire ballplayers of integrity and character, who involve themselves in the community, who can be role models for kids. I think the ability the clearly articulate oneself tactfully with a horde of media microphones in one's face is a crucial talent in the culture of baseball. But if all that does not translate onto the ballfield and the win/lose column, there's a problem. It's perfectly fine for nice guys to perform well. It's not fine for critical fans to sit back and watch as your team hands out ludicrous contracts to nice guys while ignoring their performance on the field, sacrificing quality of the product for the image of the organization. Come on, Bill Bavasi, this isn't a Sunday School softball league. This is Major League Baseball.

Do you really think Miguel Tejada, who screams the f-bomb every time he strikes out, loud enough to hear on a nationally televised game, fits the Seattle Mariner culture? We'll see.

Certainly Raul Ibanez does. And while it's a poor acquisition in the short-term, for the simple reason there is other, cheaper and equivalent to better talent available, it's also a disappointing acquisition for the long-term. It greatly disrupts the career of Chris Snellling in a Mariner uniform. Snelling is the top hitting prospect in the Mariner system, and while he's just about to turn 22, he's less than the 3 Ibanez years removed from being major league-ready. I was hoping they could start to break Snelling in at some point mid-to-late next year, but that doesn't look too likely with the current logjam in the outfield. He'll be turning 25 when Ibanez's contract expires, so his Mariner career may not be completely wasted. He could just be hitting his stride by then, but it's a shame if he has to sit and twiddle his thumbs for three years in Tacoma.

Wouldn't it be great if in three years we could look back and say, "Boy, were we ever wrong about Raul Ibanez. That was the greatest free agent signing in franchise history." It's nice to be wrong sometimes. A year ago, I was convinced the Marlins were looney to bring in Ivan Rodriguez. Now, the definitive image of the 2003 season is J.T. Snow facedown on homeplate, Pudge pumping that ball and fist triumphantly in the air. It's kind of nice when Baseball gives the stathead pundits the finger. It's nice to see something extraordinarily unexpected. It's nice to be surprised. Sometimes it's nice to be wrong, but at this point for me it's little more than wishful thinking. Come back in a year, better yet, three years.

At this point, all eyes need to be turned to the Mike Cameron front. He is their #1 free agent to acquire now. Contrary to popular belief, his hitting is not deteriorating in Safeco. Over the last three years, his OPS in Seattle has gone from .669 to .704 to .758 last year. He's actually getting better at home. If you remember, in 2002 Cammie was suffering an adverse reaction with his contact lens, which the Mariners took their sweet, blessed time in addressing, and this inhibited his ability to see the ball, especially at home. Cameron was also one of the biggest critics of the hitters' backdrop in centerfield. Perhaps his increase in production at home had something to with that changing in mid season last year. I don't know. That's a question only Cammie can answer.

Another Cameron fallacy is he's not "clutch." Hey, I get nervous seeing Cameron come up with runners on base in a game-crucial situation. And I'm heart broken watching him work the count 3-0, then watch strike three roll right over the plate to end the inning. But let's not forget April 22, when Cammie took Denys Baez deep for a walk-off grand slam to beat the Indians. The fact of the matter is Mike Cameron hit .293/.401/.503 with 17 XBH in 147 AB with runners in scoring position. As a team, the Mariners hit .297/.381/.453. So Cammie was better than the team average with runners in scoring position. Edgar, Ichiro, Boone and Winn also posted +.900 OPS in the same situation.

Make the situation scoring position with 2 outs and Cammie hit .288/.382/.379 with just 5 XBH in 66 AB. That's below the team average of .287/.398/.410, and just a tad below his total 2003 line. But it is just 66 at bats.

In Close and Late situations--"results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck," which is the best standardized "clutch" definition I know--Cammie hit .246/.346/.464 with 7 XBH in 69 AB, better than the team .243/.318/.374, and better than his total averages from 2003. Only Edgar had a better OPS for the Mariners in that situation (.831 to .809) than Cammie.

The statement "Mike Cameron is a poor clutch hitter" is a false one, and the Mariners need to make him an offer he can't refuse. Now.

2003-11-20T09:48:00.000-05:00

Raindrops keep fallin' on my head

I survived yesterday's nor'easter. The floodwaters are waning. The sun is back out today.

All that to segue to the raindrops, a sabermetrically-inclined Mets blog, where well over a week ago the idea of attrition rate was introduced. Pitches per plate appearances is a statistic that intrigues me. I love the chess match of every at bat. Attrition is the best word for it. First to make a mistake--hang a curveball, swing at a pitch out of the strike zone--loses. The ability for a hitter to control the at bat, to be patient for his pitch, to not give in to a pitcher's bait, to force the pitcher to give him what he wants--that I think is the skill I most admire in a baseball game. Watching at bats by guys like Edgar Martinez and Nick Johnson are the highlight of a game for me.

After Moneyball, one of the great misunderstandings of Oakland's hitting philosophy, that I saw, was the emphasis on walks. I don't think Beane & Co. are about walks at all. A base on balls is simply a by product of the hitter controlling the at bat and waiting for the pitcher's mistake. A hitter either waits for four pitches outside the strikezone or just one misplaced fastball grooved over the heart of the plate.

While P/PA has a general correlatiion with OPS, you run into a problem with guys like Pat Burrell and Robbie Alomar, who saw more than 4 pitches per at bat but posted OPS's below league average, and guys like Garrett Anderson and Vernon Wells, who are at the bottom of the pack in terms of P/PA but were some of the league's best hitters.

Attrition rate seeks to represent just how many pitches it would take a pitcher to record 18 outs (a typical 6-inning appearance by a starter) against a lineup of one single hitter. In other words, it would take 124.56 pitches to get through 6 innings of Edgar Martinez. Mr. Raindrops calculated the attrition rates of 240 players for last year, the max being 147.65 (think Barry Bonds), the minimum being 74.61 (think Deivi Cruz), and the average just below 100. He also gives the obvious disclaimer that this number is more interesting than useful, at the moment, but interesting it is.

Here's how our Mariners fared in 2003:

Edgar Martinez - 124.56
Bret Boone - 106.77
John Olerud - 106.59
Carlos Guillen - 104.78
Mike Cameron - 104.12
Randy Winn - 95.06
Ichiro - 94.74
Rey Sanchez - 81.46 (with Mets & Mariners)

Everyone's favorite new Mariner [sound of various office supplies crashing against the wall] Raul Ibanez records a 104.95.

I'm on my own calculating the rest of our cast:
Jeff Cirillo - 90.72
Willie Bloomquist - 94.14
Ben Davis - 87.84
Dan Wilson - 84.06

Essentially, the Mariner lineup featured one superb patient hitter, four (now five) that clumped together just above average, one just below average, one pretty far below average, and one very poor. The options off the bench were inexcusable.

Some of the names being tossed around the Mariner rumor mills/wishlists:
Matt Stairs - 116.20 (still an awesome bench/platoon option - what're you waiting for, Bill?)
John Vander Wal - 112.46
Trot Nixon - 111.94
Carlos Beltran - 109.71
Jose Cruz - 106.68 (pipedreams now, I know)
Joe Randa - 103.88
Geoff Jenkins - 103.73
Miggy Tejada - 101.27
Vlad Guerrero - 96.25 (sigh)

Couple notes on Tejada: The Coliseum was a much more severe pitcher's park even than Safeco. That's something to think about. I say Tejada's a better option than Matsui, but both will be priced far beyond what their actual value will be. I say keep Guillen at short, sign a defensive specialist like Pokey Reese to spot him 40 games (he'll come cheap) and think about Joe Randa on a two-year lease. It's far more cost-effective than either Matsui or Tejada. Then again, the M's have a poor track record with .290-hitting third-basemen from severe hitter's parks.

2003-11-19T10:20:00.000-05:00

"My name's Bonds... Barry Bonds."

"This is a stem
Of that victorious stock; and let us fear
The native mightiness and fate of him" (Shakespeare, Henry V, Act 2, scene IV)

Six Most Valuable Player awards. For crying out loud. Has anyone in history had a three-year span on par with Barry Bonds from 2001-2003? I don't know, but I do know that his numbers are truly awesome (National League average based on 858 outs in parentheses).

Batting average - .345 (.268) Todd Helton is 2nd at .341.
On-base percentage - .542 (.340) Jason Giambi is 2nd at .441.
Slugging percentage - .808 (.433) Helton and Sammy Sosa are 2nd at .631.
On-base + slugging - 1.349 (.773) Helton is 2nd at 1.071.
Isolated slugging - .463 (.165) Jim Thome is 2nd at .335.
Secondary average - .894 (.276) Thome is 2nd at .549.
Home runs - 164 (36) Alex Rodriguez is 2nd with 156.
Extra base hits - 254 (102) Helton is 1st with 265, while Bonds is 4th.
Walks - 523 (113) Giambi is 2nd with 367.
Runs created - 599 (164) Helton is 2nd with 481
Runs created/game - 18.85 (5.17) Helton is 2nd at 10.72.
Offensive winning percentage - .923 (.500) Giambi is 2nd at .791.
Stolen bases/caught stealing - 29/5 (19/9)

It's remarkable that Barry Bonds has dominated each these categories. What's absolutely jaw-dropping is how much better Bonds has been than the 2nd best guy. You take an entire lineup of Barry Bondses and play them against a lineup of league average, not replacement level, league average National Leaguers (against league average pitching), and the Bondses beat the tar out of them 19-5 on average. Take that same team and play them against a lineup of nine 2001-2003 Todd Heltons, the 2nd best player, and the Bondses win 19-11.

His OPS is 26% better than the next guy. He created 25% more runs than the next guy. Not only that, he created 25% more runs for his teams while consuming nearly 400 outs fewer (Bonds 858 vs. Helton 1211), or 29%, than the 2nd best guy.

Barry Bonds is good. Very good. Victorious stock indeed.

I couldn't resist Sports Nation's poll. And these are the thoughts that trickles through my brain:

"1. Do you like Barry Bonds?"

Well, I guess so. I can't say I really know the guy. He looks genuinely irriated by the media, and I know I would be, too, if I was asked those same insipid questions. Is he a guy I'd shoot pool with, down a couple of cold ones and go see the latest Will Ferrell flick with? I can't honestly say.

"2. Do you want Bonds (658 career home runs) to break Hank Aaron's career home run record (755)?"

Absolutely. I want to see remarkably accomplishments in my lifetime. No disrespect to Mr. Aaron.

"3. Which is the most impressive single-season HR mark?"

Compared to the outs used up, Bonds's 2001 was 58 above league average, McGwire's 1999 was 56 above league average, and Ruth's 1927 was 55 above league average. Compared to plate appearances, Ruth's 1927 was 54 above average while with Bonds, McGwire and Ruth's own 1921 were all 52 above average. I go with Bonds 2001.

"4. Which Bonds stat is most impressive?"

Bonds is third all-time in home runs above average. He's fifth all-time in on-base above average. His slugging is sixth all-time above average. He doesn't even show up in the top 10 in stolen bases. It's the home runs, man. Chicks dig the long ball.

"5. What about that earring?"

What kind of question is this? Can you even imagine Bonds without that earring?

"6. When it's all said and done, whose career will be more impressive?"

Alex's batting line at age 28 is .308/.382/.581 with 345 home runs and 559 walks. Through age 28, Bonds was hitting .283/.391/.526 with 222 home runs and 737 walks. Alex is a shortstop and Barry is a leftfielder. And Alex got a 3-year head start.

"7. Are Bonds' accomplishments tainted by the suspicion that he has used performance-enhancing drugs?"

Nope.

"8. World Series, Game 7, bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, and your team is leading the Giants 5-3. Bonds comes up to bat. What do you do?"

How many outs, and who's on deck? Zero outs, you have to pitch to Bonds. You don't put the winning run in scoring position with no outs. One or two outs with Benito Santiago coming up, no doubt, you walk him. Heck, with Edgardo Alfonzo or A.J. Pierzynski coming up, you still walk him.

"9. Who is the greatest player ever?"

Ruth. That is until Bonds wins a Cy Young Award.

Oh, and Raul Ibanez is a Mariner again. Whoop-de-friggin'-do. I expounded my opinion of Ibanez last Thursday. Maybe Bret Boone can sprinkle some second-time-around-pixie-dust on him.

If you haven't seen it already, Mike Thompson has an excellent comparison of Ibanez and Randy Winn. I can't help but echo Bremertonian Dave's sentiments: "Why can't a bunch of Mariners go to a Vlad Guerrero party and try to get him to come to Seattle?"

2003-11-18T09:44:00.000-05:00

Lil' Matsui's comin', lil' Matsui's comin'

It’s a gray, foggy day and I’m waiting for a muse like lightening to strike. It’s not too unlike how I remember Seattle, though it seems a bit darker. No rain, yet. Though the weatherman says all hell is supposed to break loose tomorrow. Rain in sheets. A billowing, blustery "Winds"day, just like from Winnie the Pooh. It’s 8:30 and the lights in the parking lot across the street are still on.

Kaz Matsui has officially thrown his hat in the free agent pool. It’s a mere formality to what’s been assumed for sometime now. Finnigan seems to be quite pessimistic. The M’s are mum.

Now, would I rather have a 28-year-old, switch-hitter with a solid glove and some speed who will be on the Nintendo payroll and making league adjustments? Or a 28-year-old, switch-hitting, consistent but slap hitter with a rusty glove and a penchant for nagging injuries at a price of $2.5 million plus arbitration? Or a “28-year-old” slugging, right-hander with no patience at the plate, superb glove, seeking a long-term contract at probably no less than $8 million a season?

I think I’d like to take my chances with option #1. I reserve the right the change my mind, though. And of course, ESPN provides all the hype money can buy. (“One MLB executive: He's the real deal”) Yeah, okay. Good to hear he’s not a “fake deal.” Probably one of Peter Gammons’s sources.

Here are Matsui’s rate stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) the past three years:

Age 25 - .308/.365/.496
Age 26 - .332/.389/.617
Age 27 - .305/.368/.549

To compare here’s Ichiro’s three last seasons in Japan along with his first one in Seattle:

Age 24 - .358/.414/.518
Age 25 - .343/.412/.539
Age 26 - .387/.460/.539
Age 27 - .350/.381/.457 (USA)

And then there’s Godzilla:

Age 26 - .316/.438/.654
Age 27 - .333/.463/.617
Age 28 - .334/.461/.692
Age 29 - .287/.353/.435 (USA)

Ichiro’s batting average dropped nearly .040. His on-base dropped about .080, and his slugging dipped about .080. Like Ichiro, Godzilla’s numbers dropped across the board, but they didn’t just drop, they jumped off a cliff. His average was down about .050. He lost nearly .090 on his on-base and .160 in his slugging. That’s huge. Think of a universe where Barry Bonds turns into Tino Martinez. That was the difference between Hideki Matsui’s power in Japan and the US. Now, whether that was an aberration, just adjusting to American baseball, or a beginning of a career decline, it will take several years to see.

So what is reasonable to expect from Kaz Matsui? Well, he’s a year older than Ichiro was when he came to America and a year younger than Hideki. As far as skill sets go, he’s far more similar to Ichiro than Hideki. He’s a flashy defender with speed. Hideki’s game is power, so I wouldn’t imagine such a dramatic falloff for Kaz. Contrary to all the reports, his power is pretty comparable to Ichiro’s, with the exception of his 2002 season when he slugged .617 with 36 homers. Last year he slugged just .549 with 33 homeruns. He had 14 fewer hits, so I’m guessing his doubles dropped by a bit as well.

So, just non-scientifically, eye-balling the numbers, I think .270/.320/.450 is a reasonable expectation. I know, it’s not overwhelming. It’s not what the hype would have us believe. I wouldn't use him as a leadoff hitter. I wouldn't let him near the top of the lineup with that on-base. I would almost rather keep Mr. Glass, as he’s pretty much guaranteed to post similar numbers with a higher on-base. Guillen AND a defensive sub like Pokey Reese will both come much cheaper than the inevitable auction for the services of Mr. Matsui.

And while he’d be an upgrade on defense at short, if the Mariners remain such an extreme flyball pitching staff next year, upgrading the infield defense is just not that important.

If the Angels want to sink payroll into Matsui, I think I’d just as soon let them.

It’s not what I was expecting to conclude, either.

2003-11-17T09:24:00.000-05:00

A Case of the Mondays

There is no new Mariners news this morning. Not a drop. Thus, the cold reality of winter slaps me in the face. How many more days until pitchers and catchers report? 94?

On Friday, Edward of Bambino’s Curse offered up the following:

On this subject, do you ever reflect on what kind of player you'd be if you were gifted enough to make the Show? I bet you do. I do it all the time. And I don't mean so much imagining what kind of player you'd be physically or technically but rather how would your demeanor, attitude, quotes to the beat reporters etc. be perceived by the fans? While I'm certain we all like to envision ourselves as the ultimate team player and all around good guy and fan favorite, I suspect that really wouldn't be the case for many of us and I certainly include myself in this latter grouping.
Me too. Without a doubt. In fact, I’ve been churning through Jim Bouton’s Ball Four this past week and one anecdote especially jumped out at me.

But before I share that, here’s a little insight into my own baseball career to give you some context. My first season of Little League was at the age of 9. I didn’t get “drafted” (however that system worked), so I didn’t join a team until about midway through the season. Tt was a 10-year-old team at that, and they’d been together since the 6-and-under T-ball league. When you’re 9, those 10-year-olds are huge, and they might as well be throwing 100 miles per hour.

I remember my very first at bat. I dug in. Tapped the plate with the bat. Took a couple of practice half swings. Imagined I was Pete Incaviglia. The pitcher hit me square in the back. He must have gotten the memo I was the rookie. I stole second. Getting the uniform dirty was the best part of little league. Then I scored on a grounder between the shorstop’s legs that I made some awkward hurdle-style leap over on my way to third.

That entire first year I only made contact with the ball once. It was a check swing foul ball. It sailed far past the infield. If only I’d followed through on that swing. For the entire season I only walked, or I struck out. As I progressed, though, I did finally get a hit, maybe a couple. I never did hit a home run. Even after they moved the fences in. My budding dream to be a major leaguer ended at 13 when I actually had to try out for the 14-and-under league. I hit like Rey Sanchez and ran the bases like John Olerud. I was the fifth outfielder, the 11th man on an 11-man team.

Not soon after came the realization that for those who can't hit the long ball, chicks also dig a guitar player.

So that’s where I’m coming from when I share this. While I might first imagine myself as some clone of Michael Lewis’s portrayal of Scott Hatteberg in Moneyball, trying to intellectualize every at bat, I think deep down I imagine myself a ballplayer like Ted Williams.

In the bullpen tonight Jim Pagliaroni was telling us how Ted Williams, when he was still playing, would psyche himself up for a game during batting practice, usually early practice before the fans or reporters got there. He’d go into the cage, wave his bat at the pitcher and start screaming at the top of his voice, “My name is Ted f**king Williams and I’m the greatest hitter in baseball.” He’d swing and hit a line drive. “Jesus H. Christ Himself couldn’t get me out.” And he’d hit another. Then he’d say, “Here comes Jim Bunning, Jim F**king Bunning and that little shit slider of his.” Wham! “He doesn’t really think he’s gonna get me out with that shit.” Blam! “I’m Ted f**king Williams.” Sock! (p. 232)

So I planned to visit the batting cages over the weekend. I had this routine planned out. I’d wave my bat at the pitching machine: “I’m Peter f**king White and I’m the greatest hitter in baseball!” I’m sure the kids would love that. “Billy Wagner thinks he can sneak that 100-mph heater by me, I’ll yank it foul.” Wham! Line drive. “Here’s Barry Zito. I’ll take that 12-6 curveball and cram it right back up his ass.” Blam! Shot up the middle. “And Pedro Martinez? I’ll show that scrawny prima dona what tired feels like.” Sock! “I’m Peter f**king White and I’m the greatest hitter in the world!” Ker-plowie!

I chickened out, though. Too cold for batting cages. I’m a wus when it comes to cold. I much preferred November in Seattle to that of the east coast. Maybe when it warms up.

But yeah, I’d be Ted motherf**king Williams.

2003-11-14T09:08:00.000-05:00

Dear Santa, (part IV)

Let’s see if I can wrap this letter up today, Santa. Two areas remains: Pitching and the bench.

As far as starters go, I’d like to see at least one, maybe two, of three candidates traded away—Freddy Garcia, Ryan Franklin and Gil Meche. Freddy’s been involved in trade chatter for the last four months, and it’s getting hotter, for the very good reason that his arbitration raise last year was unwarranted based on his 2002 performance, and certainly his 2003 performance deserves a paycut. But you can’t do that in arbitration. If the Yankees would even consider Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano for Freddy and John Olerud, I first might possibly wet myself, but I would most definitely proclaim the Yankees dumber than they look. While I’d like to think the Yankees are really dumber even then they do look, but Finny has to be making this up. It's just nonsense when you think about it.

But I can see Nick the Stick and Edgar together in a linuep forcing opposing pitchers to throw 100 pitches by the third inning every night. That's be sweet.

Both Franklin and Meche had excellent 2003 seasons given their expectations. Their trade value will never be higher. He’s 30 years of age, so asking Franklin to improve on his 3.57 ERA (which was 9th in the AL last year). That he throws in Safeco Field makes his stats appear a bit sweeter than they really are. And yet, he gave up 22 homers in Safeco Field this year and 12 on the road. Go figure.

As for Meche, he’s 25. Arm injuries kept him out of baseball all of 2001. He pitched just 65 innings for San Antonio in 2002. That’s 65 innings over the 2 years coming into this year. He then pitched 186 innings this year. What do we say May 1 as the date his arm officially falls off? He pitched just 74 innings after the All-Star break with a 6.08 ERA, and he complained of arm soreness. In September, his ERA was 8.06. Am I the only one seeing red flags here?

That would leave Rafael Soriano, Julio Mateo, any one of the Tacoma/San Antonio boys and/or a free agent pickup (Leftie Brian Anderson? Innings-eater Rick Helling? Ron Villone?) to fill two starting slots.

Alas, time’s up. The bullpen and bench will have to wait for another day, Santa.

Your friend,

Peter

2003-11-13T09:41:00.000-05:00

Dear Santa, (part III)

Let’s see… where did I leave off? Oh yes: Mike Cameron. The decisicion to part ways with Mike Cameron was a black and white issue a year ago. It’s a murky situation at best today. The thinking was that, like Jeff Cirillo, Cameron was completely psyched out by Safeco Field. From 2000-2002, Cammie hit .224/.324/.385 with just 67 extra base hits in 768 at bats in Safeco Field. During the same time period on the road, Cammie hit .278/.364/.510 with 103 extra base hits in 851 at bats. Affected most by his home ballpark were his ability to make contact and his ability to hit for power. It was simple, really: Let Cammie walk, and he can rake up some massive offensive numbers as a speedy centerfielder somewhere else, anywhere really.

But something weird happened last year. His home/road splits, while still favoring the road, were not near as extreme. He hit .235/.329/.429 with 24 extra base hits in 247 AB in Safeco. On the road, he hit .268/.357/.432 with 30 extra base hits in 287 AB. Essentially, his contact and ability to get on base were no different than the previous three years, but his power jumped at Safeco by a good margin and dropped significantly—nearly .080—on the road. Adding to the bizarreness is Cammie hit more home runs at home (11) than on the road (7) but hit half as many doubles in Safeco (11) compared to everywhere else (20). Just what happened? I’ve no clue, but I do have to wonder how the change in the hitters’ backdrop in Safeco affected Cameron, even if it was only a psychological boost.

As it stands, Cammie’s 28.4 VORP in 2003 puts him 5th offensively among AL centerfielders. His defense is, without argument, the best in baseball. Thus, the question becomes, if you let Cameron walk, who is there to replace him with? Kenny Lofton? I believe it’s certainly worth the risk to bring Cameron back and hope Paul Molitor can teach him to make contact.

If Cammie does leave, Santa, the only worthy replacement is the one and only Carlos Beltran. According to Win Shares, only Mike Cameron had more defensive value among AL outfielders than Beltran, and according to VORP, only Vernon Wells was more valuable among AL centerfielders. He’s 26 and just hitting his prime. He’s a switch hitter with power from the left side. His SLG was actually .050 points higher away from the mini-Coors Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City. He has hit .309/.390/.500 with 3 homers and 4 doubles in 68 career AB in Safeco. He is a perennial 30/30 threat, and I’m pretty sure he has never been caught stealing, which means that at least 30 of his singles/walks are automatic doubles. He did draw a career-high 72 walks last year while striking out a career-low 81 times.

Can you just see a lineup of Ichiro/Beltran/Edgar/Boone? And the Royals are desperate for young pitching, of which the Mariners have more than enough for the entire AL Central. Beltran just might even be worth sacrificing Joel Pineiro and/or Rafael Soriano. Maybe.

There’s just one problem. One massive, Mt. Rainier-sized problem: Carlos Beltran is represented by Scott Boras, which is roughly the equivalent of the beautiful princess held captive in the tower by the evil magician. All of my hopes and dreams I’ve just worked up are crushed to smithereens by those two words: Scott Boras. Somewhere I’ve read that Boras is not at all interested in a trade-and-sign deal for Beltran. I say the M’s save their pennies this winter and go all out for Beltran next winter if he can’t be pried out of Kansas City this year.

So back to reality, Santa, that other Royals' outfielder Raul Ibanez is a bad idea, very bad, I’m talking ten-plagues-of-Egypt bad. He is currently 31. Yes, he bats left-handed. However, he put up a .799 OPS last year as a corner outfielder in very-hitter-friendly Kaufman Stadium. His VORP was 10th among AL left-fielders (Randy Winn was 5th, for comparison’s sake). Non-tendering Winn, as Finnigan suggests today, for the sake of signing Ibanez is a grave mistake. His road batting line last year was .274/.328/.427 with 26 XBH in 307 AB, and I’m not even sure we could expect that in Safeco Field next year.

Then, Santa, there’s Jose Guillen. He’ll be 28 next year. For his career, he’s hit .270/.315/.430. However, thanks to his .337/.385/.629 in the Great American Bandbox in Cincinnati, I’m sure he’s looking to cash in. However, after coming to Oakland he hit .265/.311/.459. Now, which of these three lines is not like the others? The guy has no patience at the plate (24 total walks last year in 485 AB). His total .359 OBP was a direct result of his .311 batting average, and we all know how consistent batting average is year-to-year. Don’t we, Anaheim Angels? I’d pass on Guillen.

Then there’s Reggie Sanders. He’s 36, so he’d be no long-term solution, just a placeholder until Chris Snelling is ready, maybe trade bait at the trade deadline. He hit .285/.345/.567 last year with 31 home runs in 453 AB. Chances are his price will be a bit more than his $1 million/1 year deal last year with Pittsburgh. He’s one of the streakiest hitters in baseball, and he’s an extreme pull, power hitter, which puts him at a big risk to see his power fall off a cliff in Seattle.

However, with this nifty toy I found on MLB.com, you can compare PNC Park to Safeco and see where Sanders’ homers landed last year. PNC Park is 325 feet down the left field line. The wall then sharply angles in the left-center power alley to 389 feet with a weird corner nook at 410 feet before pulling back to 399 in dead center. As you can see most of Sanders’ homers at home went beyond the 389-410 power alley. Comparatively, Safeco isn’t much different at all. The wall is 331 in the left field corner, makes a straight line to the alley at 390 before angling to 405 in dead center. I really don’t think Sanders would be as affected by Safeco as an initial impression would give.

Santa, there’s also the option of giving Chris Snelling a shot. When healthy last year, Snelling hit .333/.371/.468 with 17 XBH, 8 walks and 30 strikeouts in 186 at bats in San Antonio and .269/.333/.433 with 5 XBH, 5 walks and 12 strikeouts in 67 at bats in Tacoma. I don’t see how you can hand him a starting spot. At best, he needs a spectacular spring to show he’s healthy to even make the big league team. He needs a good half season of regular work, at least, before he sees major league pitching, in my humble opinion. But geez, there’s nobody in the organization I want to see succeed more than Chris Snelling.

So Santa, regardless at this point of the combinations, as I see it, the Mariners need at least four starting outfielders to rotate throughout the season. That not only would allow the rest needed to prevent a late season offensive collapse as we’ve seen the last couple of years, it would also greatly strengthen the bench, and depth was a major weakness last year. I’m sure I could be quite content with any combination of Ichiro, Cameron, Winn, Cruz, Sanders or Snelling. And perhaps some others. Guerrero or Beltran would just be a bonus.

Your friend,

Peter

2003-11-12T10:10:00.000-05:00

And this...

...might be the funniest thing I have seen in many a moon.

(thanks to Pinto)

2003-11-12T10:00:00.000-05:00

Dear Santa, (part II.5)

I’m going to try this again, as my last attempt was erased by one stray swipe of my pinky. And as I missed the early train this morning, this is going to be as brief as possible.

I would like a starting outfielder for Christmas this year for my beloved Mariners. Please don’t think me greedy if I ask for two. You see, if Mike Cameron leaves, the M’s need a centerfielder. Last year, the outfield of Safeco Field was manned by three centerfielders, and they all hit like centerfielders, too. If Cammie goes, Randy Winn can shift over and play center and you can bring a leftfielder, Santa. Or Ichiro can shift to center and you can bring a rightfielder. Or Ichiro can play center, Winn can be the best fourth outfielder in baseball and the Mariners can have two corner outfielders that actually hit like corner outfielders.

The most popular items, as you know Santa, are Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield. While I agree with Mr. Zumsteg that Vlad and his reclusive personality are a perfect fit for the ethos of the Pacific Northwest, I expect the Mariners to deliver Guerrero about as much as I expected my parents to present me a brand new car on my 16th birthday.

As for Gary Sheffield, well, he’s 35; he’s at the top of his game; he’s got a couple good years left. But he wasn’t happy in LA because of the distance from his family in Florida. Who’s to say he’d be happy in Seattle. He’s a great hitter but on the wrong side of “old” and “affordable” for the Mariners.

While on the topic of “too old,” “too expensive,” not to mention “fragile” and “temperamental,” pardon me while I briefly acknowledge ESPN’s suggestion of Brian Jordan… There, I acknowledged it. He's #49, if you're curious enough to scroll down that far. It's laughable. It's ridiculous. It's like someone was playing some blind pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey game with free agents.

Due to time constraints this morning, Santa, I’m limited to advocating only my favorite outfield choice this morning: Jose Cruz. I honestly believed Junior Cruz would thrive in San Francisco this year as a fastball hitter between speedy Ray Durham and Superman Bonds. Well, he didn’t, hitting .250/.366/.414. It turns out Felipe Alou jerked him up and down the lineup, and Cruz saw at bats in all nine spots. You could argue that Alou’s inconsistency with Cruz led to Cruz’s inconsistent bat. Maybe. I don’t know.

He saw the most AB in the #8 hole (145) where he hit .234/.302/.359, and that’s just plain ugly. He got at least 50 AB in the leadoff spot, #2, cleanup, #5 and also #7. He got 55 AB in the 2-hole and hit .309/.367/.655 with 5 home runs. I still think he’d be perfect in the 2-spot between Ichiro and Edgar. Perfect. And that’s before I mention he took 102 walks last year. He's patient at the plate and sees a lot of pitches (4.0/PA, 18th in all of baseball last year; Edgar was second at 4.3), an ideal #2 man. In addition, despite having his head somewhere other than rightfield in the NLDS, he earned himself a gold glove this year, in large part to his league-leading 18 assists. According to Win Shares, only Andruw Jones and Craig Biggio (both centerfielders) had more value defensively than Junior Cruz in the NL. We all know Bob Melvin is married to his lineups and if Cruz saw a whole season in the #2 spot he might just more than make up the loss of Mike Cameron.

Hopefully, Santa, tomorrow I can peel myself from bed in time to make the early train and continue my post I lost yesterday about how losing Mike Cameron isn’t such a black-and-white situation, Carlos Beltran is a damsel in distress and an outfield of Reggie Sanders, Ichiro and Junior Cruz would be pretty sweet.

Your friend,

Peter

2003-11-11T09:49:00.000-05:00

Epic posts... deleted... pinky strays on wrong key... ARGH! xllksdfvlkja d [head smashing keyboard]

2003-11-10T12:06:00.000-05:00

Rumors, blah, blah, blah

Boston Herald suggests Trot Nixon would be a good fit in Seattle. And hey, the Mariners have a right-handed starter named Freddy Garcia to deal. To which I say: Not unless you get Trot (.671 OPS vs. left-handed pitching) a platoon partner. Like say Marquis Grissom (1.056 OPS vs. lefties), though not a free agent. Or Eduardo Perez (1.126), who is a free agent.

In a division where you see 4-5 starts each of Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Jarrod Washburn, hitting lefties is a big deal.

2003-11-10T09:19:00.000-05:00

Dear Santa,

I thought I’d get my list to you early this year. I just want to give you the time you need to work your magic. The general manager meetings start today, after all.

Not to sound ungrateful for our new general manager, I can’t help but express my disappointment a little. I was kind of wishing for Paul DePodesta. I fully realize that his portrayal in Moneyball was simply a caricature, but he would have brought something different to the ballclub. And there was Chris Antonetti. There was Tim Purpura. There was Kim Ng. Wouldn’t politically correct Seattle be the perfect environment for the first female GM?

But Bill Bavasi… I’m not trying to sound ungrateful. I mean, he has yet, to my knowledge, gone on record criticizing the validity of on-base percentage and other aspects of performance analysis, like some other interviewees have in the past. He was the director of player development in Los Angeles, right? The Los Angeles minor league system went a combined 250-263 (.487) last year. Their AAA-affiliate in Las Vegas won 85 games in 2002 then 76 in 2003. I don’t see much player or development coming recently out of LA.

So Santa, I guess as a fan there’s really not much I can do but muster all the blind faith that can be mustered that the powers that be know something I don’t. It’s a stretch, I know, but what’s left to do but sit back and enjoy the ride? Today’s a new day, a new ballclub for Bill Bavasi. I’ll try to save the kicking and screaming for only when it’s absolutely necessary.

Okay Santa, thanks for the new GM (finally) and thanks for another year of Edgar. Here’s the rest of my list, and this year it’s all for the benefit of my beloved Seattle Mariners: 1) A shiny new starting third baseman and/or shortstop, 2) a state-of-the-art starting outfielder, 3) a dazzling leftie hitter off the bench, 4) a flashy gloveman or two back-up middle infielders, 5) some superb bullpen filler, preferably a couple of lefties. I know, Santa, that beggars can’t be choosers, but allow me a second to be picky.

Santa, everyone’s talking about Kaz Matsui. If Ichiro and Godzilla have taught us anything, it’s that batting average translates better than slugging percentage from Japan. That’s an understatement. Kaz hit .305/.368/.549 last year. He walked in 9% of his at bats, so chances are he's likely to slap the ball around the park before he works a pitcher deep in the count. Apparently, he plays a pretty slick shortstop, and he’s 28, so he should be hitting his peak. Clay Davenport, a much smarter man than me, thinks Orlando Cabrera is a realistic comparison. That's not a bad thing. It's just important to remember when putting a dollar value on Matsui that he won't be a one man savior. He's not A-Rod. I hope that’s clear with everybody else. If Mr. Yamauchi wants to open the coffers of Nintendo for what is sure to be ridiculous bidding for the services of Matsui, I can live with that. If, however, it straps the flexibility of the Mariners’ payroll, there are more cost effective options.

Miguel Tejada is not one of those options. The letters “MVP” on his resume, to the money givers, will greatly outshine the objective reality, which is a career on-base percentage of .331 and an OPS of .786 in 144 AB in Safeco Field. Granted, he’s an excellent defender, good for at least 25-30 homeruns. Tejada is one of the top five best shortstops in baseball. But the price tag will be steep, too steep. Officially, he’ll be 28, but if you believe that, you’re a gullible one. There are other more cost-effective solutions.

Rich Aurilia is not one of those options, either. At 6+ million, his salary was actually greater than Tejada’s last year. His career OPS is a Tejada-esque .331. He has a meaningless .758 OPS is 13 career AB in Safeco Field. While one could jump to the conclusion that Aurilia’s hitting stats have been deflated by PacBell Park, his OPS was .800 there, but .679 on the road. He just might be more valuable as half of a platoon has his OPS last year against lefties was .927 but .679 against righties. He’ll be 34 next year. Unless Aurilia’s willing to take a pay cut, there are more cost-effective solutions.

Like Jose Valentin. He’ll be 35 and made 5 million last year. According to win shares, he contributed more defensive value than any other shortstop in the American League. I’m not too crazy about his .324 career OBP or his .582 OPS in 74 AB in Safeco Field. His OPS has dropped three consecutive years, so maybe he’s not such a good pick after all.

Within the organization, the M’s have Ruben Castillo (Tacoma: .211/.263/.252, .153 MjEQA), Luis Ugueto (San Antonio: .260/.312/.314, MjEQA .191) and Jose Lopez (San Antonio: .258/.303/.403, MjEQA .203). Perhaps keeping Carlos “Mr. Glass” Guillen at short with a dependable backup is the best option short of capturing Matsui outside the budget. If Guillen stays at short, then Santa, we’ll need a third baseman, and there just isn’t much to choose from there, either.

Tony Batista: Mmm... no. Three digits for you — 3, 0 & 2. That’s his on-base percentage in 8 years in the major leagues. Don’t touch him with a ten-foot pole. Plus, he's ugly.

Joe Randa: Eh. Is there any reason at all to believe he’ll leave Kansas City?

Robin Ventura: He’s best days are behind him, but he can still draw walks, hit an occasional home run and play a solid hot corner. He has an 1.131 OPS in 23 Safeco at bats. He’s left-handed. At 37, he’s not a permanent solution, but he would be a temporary upgrade until something better comes along. If nothing else, give him an incentive-laden contract and make him the leftie off the bench. I’m still all about bringing Robin Ventura to Seattle.

Justin Leone deserves a shot at the third base job after his stellar year in San Antonio last year (.288/.405/.541, MjEQA .263). But if he emerges from the Rule V draft still a Mariner, I'll be shocked. He'll wind up next year's Scott Podsednik for some team like Pittsburgh.

Well Santa, that's all the time I have today. I'll write more tomorrow.

Your friend,

Peter

P.S. Please leave those Wachowski brothers a big pile of... um, coal in their stocking. The way I see it, they really deserve a truckload. Why, oh why, didn't I take the blue pill.

2003-11-07T14:09:00.000-05:00

"Bavasi!"

I've found my new all purpose swear word. Let's see, press conference scheduled for 1 p.m. PST, which (if my math is correct) is 4 p.m. EST, so another two hours.

2003-11-07T09:46:00.000-05:00

The big day

Is the suspense killing you yet? Me neither. I do have a nasty impatient streak and am beyond ready to get this over with already. John Hickey says the trio's down to two. Larry Stone says there is just one. Here's Stone's scariest comment:
"One of his [Bill Bavasi's] first big moves [as GM of the Angels] was signing Bo Jackson. One of his final moves was signing Mo Vaughn to a six-year, $80 million contract."
Ouch. That's a bad sign. A very bad sign. Edward Cosette last week commented amidst the Manny Ramirez Waiver Saga, "I'm still of the thinking that Theo Epstein is smarter than I am and smarter than the Boston media and that he's working the baseball chess board like a Garry Kasparov, thinking 5 to 10 moves ahead." I try to replace "Bill Bavasi/Benny Looper" and "Seattle media" into that statement and I get this deflated feeling, like that feeling I get when I wake up in the morning thinking it's Friday only to find out it's really Wednesday, sometimes Tuesday. I just wish I could have Edward's same unwavering confidence in the turkeys running what I call "my team." Is it really too much to wish for?

As much as everything in my being resists linking to anything on the YES Network, I've recently been pointed to the columns of Steve Goldman. His comments on Don Mattingly as hitting coach of the Yankees I find excellently apropos of the Mariners situation with Paul Molitor:
Walt Hriniak and Charlie Lau both were noted hitting coaches despite being mediocre hitters themselves. Joe DiMaggio coached without distinction, as did Mickey Mantle. Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams probably understood the mechanics of hitting as well as anyone who ever held a bat, but their intense personalities handicapped them as teachers. A coach's good name and on-field accomplishments offer no guarantees. Rod Carew, a career .328 hitter and owner of seven batting titles, was the hitting coach for the 2001 Milwaukee Brewers, the team that set the record for strikeouts in a season. Carew himself had great bat control and struck out only 67 times per 162 games, but he could no more teach sluggers Richie Sexson and Jeromy Burnitz to hit like him than he could learn to hit like them. The same thing is true of Mattingly [or Molitor]. His name and his accomplishments probably will give him an air of authority, but the rest is up to his pedagogical skills.

A good hitter does not make a good teacher, but that's not to say Coach Molitor won't be. I'm just not hanging my hopes for the second half of 2004 on a new marquee name hitting coach. There's plenty more good stuff there. I could quote the whole thing, but that'd be a bit excessive. Just follow the link.

For the first time ever, the Hall of Fame is allowing fans to nominate the finalists for the Ford C. Frick Award. The Frick award is "presented annually to a broadcaster for major contributions to the game of baseball." Past winners include Red Barber, Ernie Harwell, Jack Buck, Vin Scully. Last year it was Bob Uecker. Now go vote and vote now for Dave Niehaus. We get to submit one ballot per day until December 1. I've heard the complaints about Niehaus and to those critics I say: "Have you ever tried to listen to any other team's play-by-play team?" I listened to nearly every Mariner ballgame in the spring and summer of 2002, spring training included. The sound of Dave Niehaus waxing poetic about my Seattle Mariners made an absolutely unbearable workevening bearable. God, I miss that. He is the last of a dying breed in the tradition of the classic baseball radio men. And you don't need me to tell you that Dave Niehaus is Seattle baseball. So show the guy some love and get him on the ballot.

And from somewhere out of left field, this is good for a laugh (thanks, Ryan). I just wonder where I can find that Country Church album. It really makes me ponder what ever happened to Tino. You can actually sample Devastatin' Dave's mp3 here. And good times were had by all.

2003-11-06T09:04:00.000-05:00

3 is the magic number

As if they're some sort of unholy trinity, Larry Stone is reporting the M's GM candidates are whittled down to three: in-house man Benny Looper, the Tigers' assistant GM Al Avila and Dodgers' director of player development Bill Bavasi.

If they choose Looper, I'll yawn and dig in to play another season of second guessing the GM.

If they choose Avila, I might break spontaneously break into sobs. The assistant GM of the Tigers? Okay so he's been there just a year. It's amazing what a happen-chance championship in Florida has done to the reputations to anyone remotely associated to the organization now since its inception. Suddenly every front office executive with "Florida Marlins" on his resume is golden. "Hey, we've got this guy who got coffee for the guy who had an office next to the guy who scouted Josh Beckett back in '99. How 'bout him?"

If they choose Bavasi, I swear, I will be too frightened to second guess the general manager. That picture could give nightmares. Does he really look like some cyborg from a sci-fi B-movie in real life?

Oh yeah, and John Mabry will not be back next year. Just allow to be the first to say: "Well, crap."

2003-11-04T19:02:00.000-05:00

The worst Mariner pitchers of all time: Part II

20. James Baldwin 2002

Only one pitcher appears on this list from the Safeco Field/Bryan Price years. His name? James Baldwin. Whether this a credit to the tutelage of Price or the pitcher friendliness of Safeco Field, I have yet to decide. But James Baldwin was bad.

One of the greatest days of my life was the day my 16-game plan season tickets arrived in the mail during the dark winter of ’01-’02. I believe it was ticket plan C. It should have been called the “James Baldwin Plan,” because, I swear, Jimbo made an appearance in every single game I attended in 2002. If he didn’t start, he came in from the bullpen. I should have asked for some sort of refund.

The right-handed 30-year-old Baldwin arrived as a free agent as a part of Pat Gillick’s grand scheme of improving upon the historic 2001 season. Coming off a strong 2000 campaign with the White Sox followed by elbow problems the next year, Baldwin was slated to fill the #5 slot in the rotation. Hey, we’ve all got dreams. Baldwin appeared in 30 games, 23 starts and went 7-10. Yeah, just 7 wins on a team that won 93. In 150 innings, he allowed 179 hits (10.7 per 9 innings), 49 walks (2.9 per 9 innings), 88 strikeouts (5.3 per 9 innings), 26 home runs (1.6 per 9 innings) and 88 earned runs (5.28 ERA). At least he threw strikes. But then again, it would have been nice if some of those strikes had stayed within the confines of Safeco Field. Think about that a moment.

He signed a minor league contract with the Kansas City “Send Us Your Veteran Pitchers” Royals last winter. And while the Royals did send 15 different pitchers to start games, they were wise enough to cut Baldwin before sending him to the mound in Kauffman Stadium. Baldwin was picked up by the Twins and made just 10 relief appearances. He’ll be lucky to get even that next year.

19. Diego Segui 1977

Just like Jim Colborn, Diego Segui is another example of an aging veteran sent to pasture in the Kingdome. It seems the Mariners needed some warm bodies to fill out the bullpen of their inaugural team. The contract of the 39-year-old right-hander was purchased from the Padres just following the 1976 season, though he hadn’t pitched in the majors since ‘75. Segui lasted just one year in Seattle. And that’s a good thing.

Segui filled the role of middle relief/swing man for the first-year Mariners. He pitched in 40 games, made 7 starts, saved 2 games and went 0-7. In 111 innings, he allowed 108 hits (8.8 per 9 innings), 43 walks (3.5 per 9 innings), 91 strikeouts (7.4 per 9 innings), 20 home runs (1.6 per 9 innings) and 70 earned runs (5.68 ERA). His ratios aren’t horrible, but teams still scored on him like they knew they wouldn’t get another chance to. And they didn’t, as Diego found one year in Seattle one year too many and retired following the 1977 season.

18. Dave Fleming 1991-1995

Ah, what could have been. The Mariners selected Dave Fleming in the third round of the 1990 draft and the 21-year-old left-hander made his debut August 6, 1991. The rookie made 3 starts in 9 appearances with an underwhelming 6.62 ERA. He made the team in ’92 as the #4 starter and led the team in starts (33), wins (17), complete games (7), shutouts (4) and innings (228.1). He recorded a then team record 9 consecutive wins. I’d like to see his pitch counts for the year. Unless your name is Mark Prior, leading your team in complete games and innings pitched in your early twenties is not a good thing. Just ask A.J. Burnett. In his last game of 1992, Fleming experienced pain in his shoulder. It was the beginning of the end. He began the 1993 season on the disabled list and never returned to form. He had an average season in ’93: 26 starts, 4.36 ERA, but fell off a cliff after that. In 1994, he started 23 games with a 6.46 ERA, and in 1995 made just 7 starts in 16 appearances with a 7.50 ERA before getting traded to Kansas City. One good season, one so-so, two truly horrible ones. He never pitched again after 1995.

So in five seasons with the Mariners, Dave Fleming went 38-31, making 92 starts in 107 games. In 578.1 innings, he allowed 642 hits (10.0 per 9 innings), 229 walks (3.6 per 9 innings), 289 strikeouts (4.5 per 9 innings), 63 home runs (1.0 per 9 innings) and 304 earned runs (4.73 ERA). While it’s easy fantasize where the Mariners could be today with a healthy Dave Fleming (he is still just 33) and to point the finger at manager Bill Plummer for abusing such a young talent, Fleming’s K/BB ratio wasn’t close to the range that predicates future success. He kept the ball in park, which was important in the Kingdome, but he walked too many and struck out too few. Ah, what could have been. Today, he’s a fifth grade school teacher.

17. Odell Jones 1979

The Mariners acquired Odell Jones from the Pirates in a six-man trade in December of 1978. Just prior to the 1980 season, the Mariners sent him back to Pittsburgh for cash and a player to be named later. Just one year was all they needed.

The 26-year-old right-hander started a career high 19 games with Seattle in 25 appearances, and he went 3-11. In 118.2 innings, he allowed 151 hits (11.4 per 9 innings), 58 walks (4.4 per 9 innings), 72 strikeouts (5.5 per 9 innings), 16 home runs (1.2 per 9 innings) and 80 earned runs (6.07 ERA). Jones biggest problem was keeping runners off the bases. Hits and walks will raise an ERA in a hurry. He pitched pretty much exclusively in relief once he left Seattle.

16. Bob Galasso 1977, 1981

Bob Galasso was picked from the Orioles in the expansion draft of 1976. As a 25-year-old, he put together an 0-6 record and 9.00 ERA despite just making 7 starts in the Mariners inaugural season. The Mariners released him following spring training of the next year. After a stint with the Brewers, the Mariners thought to give the then 29-year-old right-hander a second pass to start the 1981 season. He responded with a 4.83 ERA in 31.2 innings of relief. He made one start and saved one game that year.

Combining his two stints in Seattle, Galasso made 24 appearances, 8 starts and went 1-7 with 1 save. In 66.2 innings, he allowed 89 hits (12.0 per 9 innings), 21 walks (2.8 per 9 innings), 35 strikeouts (4.7 per 9 innings), 10 home runs (1.3 per 9 innings) and 52 earned runs (7.02 ERA). He kept the ball within the strike zone but somehow managed to always find the bat, though, and keeping runners from touching home plate was a bit of a problem. Galasso did not pitch again in the majors after 1981.

Tomorrow, #11-15...